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Could the GOP's poor midterm prospects encourage them to attack Iran?

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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 05:27 AM
Original message
Could the GOP's poor midterm prospects encourage them to attack Iran?
I certainly hope not . I desperately hope not.

If they already want military action against Iran anyway as part of their neoconservative vision to dominate the Middle East even more; or perhaps they might consider an attack somewhere else for that matter. But other political and military factors make them think twice. But they also realize that a properly timed military strike "could" (that is might) save their skin during the upcoming midterm elections--is it not wholly plausible that this could contribute to a decision to go ahead and strike?

The loyal and compliant media will do its duty. They realize that much of the American public will in spite of misgiving feel its their patriotic duty to "support the troops". They realize that some but not all key Democrats will support the move at least initially because they are afraid of being labeled "week on defense", "soft on terrorism", or being part of the "blame America first crowd".

I certainly hope I am wrong. but I would not put it past these people.
And as I always say NEVER, NEVER, NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE WAR PROPAGANDA MACHINE..

Here is just one example. Now forget what we know about the reality of the situation. Forget what facts we know. Imagine we are just Jane Doe or John Q. Public living in Anytown, USA:



http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/04/18.html#a7955
___________________________

From: TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL reported in LA Times - link:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-na-iranpoll13apr13,0,7195484.story?coll=la-home-headlines

snip: "If Bush were to order military action, most respondents said they would support airstrikes against Iranian targets, and about one in four said they would support the use of American ground troops in Iran.”
________________________________

Fishing for a Pretext in Iran

by Juan Cole; March 18, 2006

link: http://www.zmag.org/content/print_article.cfm?itemID=9929

snip:"Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa or formal religious ruling against nuclear weapons, and President Ahmadinejad at his inauguration denounced such arms and committed Iran to remaining a nonnuclear weapons state. (Note: Grand Ayatollah Khamenei is the Chief of State and He ALONE has the final say in matters of the Iranian state and the final religious authority over the vast overwhelming majority of Iranian Shiites. Here is an official website that explains the Iranian government:link: http://www.parstimes.com/gov_iran.html
This is the statement regarding Ayatollah Khamanei's fatwa against nuclear weapons which comes from the website of the Islamic Republic of Iran – link:
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0508104135124631.htm )

snip:"Tehran denies having military labs aiming for a bomb, and in November of 2003 the IAEA formally announced that it could find no proof of such a weapons program."

snip:"it is often alleged that since Iran harbors the desire to “destroy” Israel, it must not be allowed to have the bomb. Ahmadinejad has gone blue in the face denouncing the immorality of any mass extermination of innocent civilians, but has been unable to get a hearing in the English-language press. Moreover, the presidency is a very weak post in Iran, and the president is not commander of the armed forces and has no control over nuclear policy"

snip: "in November of 2003 the IAEA formally announced that it could find no proof of such a weapons program. The U.S. reaction was a blustery incredulity, which is not actually an argument or proof in its own right, however good U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton is at bunching his eyebrows and glaring."
snip:"Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa or formal religious ruling against nuclear weapons, and President Ahmadinejad at his inauguration denounced such arms."
_________________________

Scott Ritter's interview at at San Diego CityBeat:

http://www.sdcitybeat.com/article.php?id=4281

snip:"The Bush administration does not have policy of disarmament vis-à-vis Iran. They do have a policy of regime change. If we had a policy of disarmament, we would have engaged in unilateral or bilateral discussions with the Iranians a long time ago. But we put that off the table because we have no desire to resolve the situation we use to facilitate the military intervention necessary to achieve regime change. It’s the exact replay of the game plan used for Iraq, where we didn’t care what Saddam did, what he said, what the weapons inspectors found. We created the perception of a noncompliant Iraq, and we stuck with that perception, selling that perception until we achieved our ultimate objective, which was invasion that got rid of Saddam. With Iran, we are creating the perception of a noncompliant Iran, a threatening Iran. It doesn’t matter what the facts are. Now that we have successfully created that perception, the Bush administration will move forward aggressively until it achieves its ultimate objective, which is regime change."
____________________________

Here is an excerpts from CNN interview with former Sen. Sam Nunn - link:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/18/ywt.01.html

snip : "NUNN: But the administration is torn between conversation about regime change in Iran and diplomacy. And that means that the allies and the people you need to help you don't get a clear message about where we are on Iran. If we're really for regime change and if that's being actively pursued, then it's very hard to sit down with someone and talk with them if you're actually trying to kick them out of office."
______________________________________



http://www.dontattackiran.org

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Oversea Visitor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 05:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. Likely
Just during tabulation, most likely is they all stark crazy to win at all cost.
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izzie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 05:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. I think they would do an air war.
Just bomb up the place. Clinton had good luck in Bosnia with that type and then bring in the UN but I frankly do not think Bush could get the UN to come in for him. I do not think Bush has any more reason than his poll numbers and staying in power so one has to look at it as a power and money deal to what he will do. For get Congress as Bush seems to do as he likes. Nice to have your own army.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. some of Bush's advisers actually believe bombing alone can bring a regime
regime change in Iran. That seems a bit loony..but that may very well be their thinking:

from Seymour Hersh's interview on Democracy Now - Link:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/12/1359254

snip:"SEYMOUR HERSH: if you bomb and if you sustain the bombing, you will humiliate the clerics, the mullahs, who run the country.

After all, as we know, the Middle East basically, oversimplifying it, but it’s this culture dominated by shame. We operate out of guilt here in the West. And shaming them will make them vulnerable to the masses. And there's no question, by the way, the masses in Iran, most of them, it's fair to say that a great large percent of them are very secular. They're all good Muslims, but they're secular. They’re not interested in religious leadership. So there is a tension. And that was the thought: Bomb them, and there will be an overthrow, and you'll have a democratic regime that, you know, can dance happily with the democratic regime the President thinks is going to emerge out of Iraq.

AMY GOODMAN: And you quote further this defense official, who talked about the belief that the Bush administration has of humiliating the religious leadership, as saying, “I was shocked when I heard it and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’”

SEYMOUR HERSH: That's what he said.
_______________________________



http://www.dontattackiran.org

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izzie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 06:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
15. I do not think bombing would win it but who am I?
Who knows what Bush is on to dream the dreams he does?I frankly do not think he gives up anything he thinks he is right about. Just look at what he did with SS when Congress was out. I am sure it is some thing bad coming down as he wants SS fixed as he wants.He is going to do what he wants in the Middle East as long as he is in power.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Well its not just you. It's quite clear that most military planners
think the whole idea is loony. What have they been smoking?

Interview with Seymour Hersh - link:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/12/1359254

Interview with Retired Col.Sam Gardiner - former head of war-game planning at the Army War College - link:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/17/143241



http://www.dontattackiran.org
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 05:59 AM
Response to Original message
3. Jane Doe and John Q don't make those decisions. Nor does "The Decider"
The real decision-makers about whether we actually go to war with Iran are the Joint Chiefs of Staff, some key Senators and Congressmen, and a group of professional foreign policy experts and private sector advisors, most of whom are largely unknown to the public. The White House is the lamest of dead ducks, and control over the deployment of U.S. forces has been taken away from them, pending their prosecution.

Public opinion on this is important, but the decision is not being made by people who watch Faux News.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. if the war in Iraq is an example...Dick Cheney and other senior political
Edited on Sun Apr-23-06 07:57 AM by Douglas Carpenter
people dominated by the neoconservatives rather than "experts" will make the decision and as stated in the Downing Street memo the intelligence will be fixed around the decision.

It is true that some sources suspect that the neoconservatives have lost influence. Let's hope that is true. I have to say though that you have kind of lost me. Do you have reason to believe that he political people of the Bush Administration no longer call the shots? If you have some sources that could be enlightening on this, I would be most interested.

If its up to a truly independent military, intelligence and foreign policy team a military attack is not going to happen; but neither would have the war in Iraq. Former Senator Sam Nunn, Sy Hersh, Col Gardiner, Scott Ritter and a number of others believes that they might be leaning toward a military attack on Iran with the motive of bringing about a regime change. And the nuclear question is largely but perhaps not entirely a pretext. If the nuclear question was the main issue according to all of these people, the Bush Administration would have pursued a whole host of diplomatic alternatives already.
_____________

Interview with senior war game planner Army War College-Col (Ret) Sam Gardiner regarding war games done on the question of a possible attack on Iran:

"COL. SAM GARDINER: “What did I learn from being there?” And I would summarize that by saying by being in the future, by going through how the United States might attack Iranian nuclear facilities, I have to tell you that there is no solution in that path. In fact, it is a path toward probably making things in the Middle East much worse. It's not a solution to either stopping the Iranians or spreading democracy in the Middle East or getting us out of Iraq. It's a path that leads to disaster in many dimensions."

link: http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/17/143241
____________________




http://www.dontattackiran.org




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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 04:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. If Cheney and the neocons were still in control, we would see a massive
purge of those officers who are now standing up and criticizing the Administration. The revolt in the armed services is unprecedented, and there's an urgency about it that's being driven by the rhetoric against Iran.
Instead of the military dissenters being purged, we're seeing the prosecution of the key Administration and neocon figures (the OSP-AIPAC case, and to a degree, Plamegate) who were at the spearhead of the earlier attempt to spread the war to Iran.

Those prosecutions were initiated by the JCS and career CIA.
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Minnesota Libra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 06:53 AM
Response to Original message
4. The WH Idiot since attacking Iran is already in the works and............
.....I predict will happen just shortly before 08 elections if not before.:nuke: :hide:
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leanin_green Donating Member (823 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
7. No, but the rhetoric could be used to set up another faux U.S. terrorist
attack that could be blamed on the Iranians. That would be more their style.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. yeah, it's a wonder they haven't blamed 9-11 on Iran yet
In the Monica Crowley interview/video I listed in the original post that clueless loon-claiming to be an expert actually asserts that there is a close relationship between the Iranian government and Al Queda. And that Iran will give Al Queda a nuclear bomb to blow up New York or some major American city.

Of course anyone knowing any facts whatsoever knows that the Iranian regime and Al Queda are arch-enemies.

The whole scenario is about as likely as Israel giving Hezbollah a nuclear bomb to blow up Riyahd.




http://www.dontattackiran.org



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leanin_green Donating Member (823 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Don't kid yourself. Their just doing the advance work now.
Laying the foundation for whatever they have planned. But somewhere within me, even if it happens, I get the inkling that the people won't buy it this time. Just a little too convenient, if you know what I mean. It may take something like that to get the people mobilized enough to effect real change. I hope not. In some ways I have to thank GW for coming along when he did. Have you ever seen such activism? So many people becoming energized into action? Sometimes it takes being confronted with the rankest form of ineptitude and down right evil to get motivated. In some ways(forgive me)GW is a godsend.
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AngelFactor Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
9. YES!
Yes and Yes.

B B B

American Justice? Sure, so why is an attorney getting away with tampering with court documents even though he “inadvertently” filed three pages of emails detailing what was done with the court.

See for yourself: http://www.maximumadvocacy.com/Court_records.html , look on pages 25-27 of document 64.

Unbelievable. Priceless. Hilarious, if it wasn’t so sad but true.

How’s your faith in the justice system?
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-23-06 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. not too much right now
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Rosemary2205 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
12. You think Bushco gives a cat's turd about the GOP?
Edited on Mon Apr-24-06 01:30 AM by Rosemary2205
Once they get their billions and a "legacy" that's all they want. The rest of the GOP can kiss off.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. keeping a Republican majority is central to their legacy and even
more central for the neocon vision




http://www.dontattackiran.org
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-24-06 06:38 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. If dems get a majority in congress
the next two years will feature the likely impeachment of Bush, and investigation of the Iraq lies, etc, so I think they are desperate to maintain GOP control of congress.

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