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"No matter which poll you look at, this looks like a total collapse for Dean," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, the University of Southern California political analyst who spent the last two weeks monitoring the campaigns in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
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What Neel laid out as the new campaign strategy is nothing if not unconventional. Where previously Trippi had boasted of a 50-state strategy with serious efforts to win everywhere every week, Neel now talks only of picking up some delegates today and hoping to become "the last standing alternative to John Kerry" after the Wisconsin primary Feb. 17.
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Analysts disagree on the actual moment when Dean began to slide from his front-runner's perch. Some point to the Dec. 13 capture of Saddam Hussein, when Dean's somewhat sour reaction seemed at odds with a nation celebrating the news.
Jeffe put it four days earlier, Dec. 9, when former Vice President Al Gore endorsed Dean. "Dean had sold himself as an outsider, and then he began to surround himself with the most visible known political insiders in the Democratic Party, starting with Al Gore," Jeffe said. "That began to test his credibility. Then the deal was sealed – or unsealed – with the post-election rant."
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