I just did my calculations of pledged-delegate pickups for tomorrow

[kurtyboy]

And I think things aren't any more clear now than they wer coming into today. These candidates will pick up the following numbers fo delegates tomorrow (maybe...):

Kerry 160

Edwards 54

Clark 51

Lieberman 4

Dean 0

Kucinich 0

Sharpton 0


This will bring the total-pledged (not including PLEOs) to:

Kerry 192

Edwards 72

Clark 51

Dean 17

Lieberman 4

Kucinich 0

Sharpton 0

On Saturday, you may see delegates go to:

Kerry 105

Dean 38

Edwards 36

Clark 25

Lieberman 0

Sharpton 0

Kucinich 0

This will bring the total-pledged (not including PLEOs) to:

Kerry 297

Edwards 108

Clark 76

Dean 55

Lieberman 4

Kucinich 0

Sharpton 0

Of course, the Needed-to-Nominate number stands at 2162! Nobody's even close yet.

Lemme know what you think. Kurt

[alexwcovington]

1. I think you're short-changing Dean

He's gonna pick up at least a couple, seriously.

[Straight Shooter]

2. But isn't that the theme song of DU lately?

I've heard so many choruses of short-change Dean because he's washed up, he's out of the race, he should pack his bags and go home to Vermont. One poster even suggested Guyana, and that his "cult" should follow him there.

Never ever ever underestimate the underdog. The most vulnerable position is being king of the hill.

But I hear what you're saying, and appreciate it.

[Tweed]

3. Tell me Where is Dean getting short-changed?

Where will Dean get 15%? Delaware? So he gets 2 delegates? MAYBE New Mexico? Dean is not even in second in any Feb. 3rd polls.

[kurtyboy]

4. I wish that were the case.

This process is only made better by stiff competition between the candidates. But Dean just can't muster the numbers for viability tomorrow. On Saturday, I fell like he will will a narrow victory here in my home state--Washington, but Michigan will lock him out of a share in the biggest prize so far.

the 15% rule is devastating to marginal candidates, and that is the role Dean takes for this bunch of states.

I hope that Clark and Edwards can make a horserace out of things yet....

[ShaneGR]

5. Come on man, you need to include more reasons why

I could just post some figures of possible delegate counts. But I can tell you this, if the delegate count looks like that going into Super Tuesday, Kerry will have a real battle on his hands. Particularly in the big midwest states like Ohio.