24,000 absentee votes cast over a week ago in New Mexico

[Quixote1818]

This could turn the tide for Clark in New Mexico as Kerry was running at around 8% when most of the absentee voting took place. Last night on the news they interviewed two people who had voted absentee for Clark and Dean and now are considering Kerry but it's too late.

It looks like absentee voting could be 50% of the final total. Kerry will have a lot of ground to cover to catch up. He could take third if it's close. I have absolutely no idea what will happen. I think Clark could upset here. Dean's numbers are too low now.


***
CAUCUS NUMBERS

Estimated number of registered Democrats statewide: 481,000

Absentee ballots requested: 29,822, or 6 percent

Number of requests rejected because voters were not registered Democrats: About 500

Total number of absentee ballots turned in 24,000.


Total number of Democrats expected to vote in the caucus: About 48,100, or 10 percent

[Jerseycoa]

1. About 48,100, or 10 percent

I bet turnout is a lot larger than that this year. People are more interested and Dems are fanatical about getting rid of Bush. This looks like a lowball to me.

[incapsulated]

3. We posted at the same time...

Great minds think alike. ;)

[Jerseycoa]

21. You got my number

;)

[Quixote1818]

7. Those numbers may be a little low perhaps 60,000 or more will vote.

[incapsulated]

2. Wow, that's really intriguing!

Could be a big surprise in New Mexico tomorrow, although if turnout is heavier than expected, that will help Kerry's new popularity.

[MoonRiver]

4. That's very intriguing.

Do you think the absentee votes primarily favor Clark?

[incapsulated]

6. Well, Dean is calling it for himself

I would think it helps them both.

[MoonRiver]

11. I would bet it favors Clark more.

You've got the big Native American and Hispanic populations, plus military (I think). All these groups prefer Clark over Dean.

[Quixote1818]

17. I agree but Santa Fe and Taos are about as liberal as Berkley

All you see in Santa Fe and Taos are Kucinich signs but most of them will probably vote Dean some for Clark and Kerry. A lot of people in Santa Fe from back east even Mass. New Mexico does have three Air Force bases one Army base and of course NASA. Indians are about 5% of the population.

[Jerseycoa]

24. Dean sent 20,000 ballots to supporters in NM

That's why he's feeling confident they would have voted early.

[Quixote1818]

27. He could not send ballots but ballot requests and how could he

know if they were supporters or not? I got one in the mail and sent it in and used it to vote for Clark.

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. I know that many Dean supporters who were able to vote by absentee ballot

did so simply because they were anxious to vote as soon as possible. I'm not sure how the process there works, but I recall seeing quite a buzz about it on the blog. Wasn't it also longer than a week ago that they were able to start sending in the absentee ballots? I thought I saw talk of it before Iowa.

[Quixote1818]

18. That's right the deadline was a week ago but people were sending them in

as far back as December I think.

[Jerseycoa]

23. People in Michigan

were able to begin voting January 1. It may be the same in NM.

[Anwen]

5. Well that certainly makes things interesting!

:) What are the current poll numbers for NM?

[Zynx]

8. It was Kerry 30, Clark and Dean at 15 and 14 respectively.

However, the absentee thing is interesting.

[Quixote1818]

9. Kerry around 30 and Dean and Clark at 16 but that was a News Paper Poll

Not exactly scientific. They could have been polling anyone for all we know.

[Zynx]

10. Those sound about right.

[Anwen]

12. Thanks to both of you

It's hard keeping track of all the poll numbers! :crazy:

[Quixote1818]

15. Also that poll is about 4 or 5 days old. I bet it's tightening like AZ

[janx]

13. ...and they probably weren't polling those who voted absentee.

;-)

[gate of the sun]

16. because of 2 people you think this is going to turn around things for

Clark? I live in New Mexico in Santa Fe and well I believe it will be a turn around for Dean and Kucinich....not clark..Dean is very popular in this city and so is Kucinich...People are going to be surprised I think come tomorrow. We don't have a very high population in New Mexico and What the people think in Santa Fe and Albequerque and Santa Fe makes a huge impact on the vote. You don't even see Clark signs around town. I will be very surprised if New Mexico lends any surprise for Clark.

[Quixote1818]

19. We called absentee voters and we were getting about 50% for Clark.

Santa Fe and Taos are about the most liberal citys in the country but Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Roswell, Los Vegas, Espanola, Farmington, Aztec, Ratone, Silver City, Ruidoso, Clovis, Alamogordo, Deming and so on and so fourth are a different story than Santa Fe which is a bunch of old hippies trying to relive there youth. Santa Fe is not like the rest of the state. Santa Fe is off the charts liberal.

[janx]

29. Some of those old hippies are RICH old hippies...

;-)

[gate of the sun]

33. where are you from?

Santa Fe maybe Liberal but what's this crap about a bunch of old hippies? That is inaccurate to say the least. I wouldn't mind a bunch of old hippies but it simply isin't true. I see I've angered you and that wasn't my intention. I was only stating things as I see them. good luck tomorrow.

[incapsulated]

20. New Mexico, Clark, You...

I'm starting to see a pattern forming...

[Jerseycoa]

22. What do you think as a New Mexican

of the turnout estimate in the original post? Does it appear likely to be that low?

[Quixote1818]

25. That's based on past trends but I don't know if they figured in the higher

than usual turn out. Iowa had high turn out and it was a record but it only beat the previous record which was only a few years ago by 3% I believe. If those #'s are based on previous years perhaps add on 3 to 5%. I doubt if they will be too far off. The people who really cared have already voted. Now it's those who care but are less proactive.

[revcarol]

26. I have been canvassing for Kucinich,

house to house, and people here are about 85% for Kucinich...dealing with 30% unemployment in this county and no medical care really sharpens up the issues for people.

[Quixote1818]

28. Kucinich people have not been brave enough to vote for him

They have voted for other people. Why do they do that? He might have surprised some people if his followers didn't cave in and vote for someone else.

[GreenPartyVoter]

31. They are voting their fear instead of their hopes

That's what's wrong with our plurality voting system. Well, one of the many things wrong with it. :(

[gate of the sun]

35. First of all we are not "follower's"

he is the candidate that most represents us..we believe he can make this country more as we'd like to see it.....Kucinich supporter's don't vote for other people....alot of people admire him but don't vote for him or consider him viable because they are so afraid of losing to bush, those people are not his supporter's. A few months back when people realized what a wonderful person Kucinich was many decided to go for who would win instead of who they believed in...that vote is based on fear. I prefer my vote would be based in hope for the future. If so many people were not afraid yes Dennis would have surprised everyone...

[gate of the sun]

34. house to house !

right on for you revcarol.!!!!!Kucinich will do something tomorrow and surprise everyone..hugs for all your work.

[texasmom]

30. I was wondering about the numbers.

I'd heard about the absentee voting there and in Arizona, too, I think. Thanks for posting. Tomorrow night is going to be very interesting.

[Gloria]

32. The ABQ Journal poll is worthless... because it samples only

voters who voted in two past primaries and the general election (maybe another election). In other words, people like me, who couldn't vote because I was in the hospital one of the 4 things they used to sample, are out of the picture! And there has been a lot of growth down here in Southern NM in the last couple of years.

The South may be more for Clark. Canvassing has gone very well here and we've been out to smaller places.

And, as far as I have been told, no polling has been done among Native Americans.

[phiddle]

36. Repeating a post from another thread:

Clark may surprise in NM, even though it's true that polls have shown Dean and Clark battling for a distant 2nd to Kerry, and the Tribune (which endorsed Clark) is the minor of the 2 Albuquerque dailies. I just returned from 2 hours of phone banking for Clark here, and it looks better for us than we expected. My call sheets were all voters whom the campaign had identified as "undecided" on the basis of previous calls. Of those that my group was able to reach, probably 30-40% gave commitments to Clark, the rest not yet decided, refused to say, or indicated another preference. Given that polls here show around 30% undecided, and that we seem to be picking up a large share of them, my fingers are crossed. Yes to Wes!

[windansea]

37. this could make things interesting! n/t