OK! Predictions for tomorrow's primaries:

[kentuck]

In SC, ND, DE, OK, MO, NM, and AZ. Pick the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers in each state.

SC - Edwards 25%, Kerry 18%, Clark 15% --Clark is the surprise!

ND - Clark 28%, Kerry 22%, Dean 18% --- Edwards may also get 15%!

DE - Kerry 30%, Edwards 22%, Lieberman 16% ---Lieberman is out!

OK - Clark 29%, Kerry 27%, Edwards 15% --Dean may get 15% !

MO - Kerry 34%, Dean 17%, Clark 15% -- Dean surprises in MO!

NM - Kerry 24%, Clark 22%, Dean 18% -- Closer than expected!

AZ - Clark 27%, Kerry 26%, Dean 20% -- The state to watch!



Clark and Kerry tie with 3 wins each. Edwards wins one. Clark and Dean surprise with their efforts. That is my prediction. :)

[D G]

1. Man - those are specific

I'm surprised you didn't have decimal points in your percentages ;)

I would LOVE to see Clark tie Kerry with 3 wins each. Make it a Clark/Kerry race - that would make my day.

And of course Lieberman dropping out... "An idea whose time has come." After all, we need those DINOs in the Senate! (just kidding)

Edit: The only prediction I will make is that Clark will win AZ or NM (in addition to OK, and possibly other states I won't predict). No math for me, lol

[David Dunham]

2. Kerry wins 5; JE wins SC; WC wins OK

[Quixote1818]

23. Interesting

SC Edwards 40, Clark 20, Kerry 20,

Ok Clark 32, Edwards, 29, Kerry 27

AZ Kerry 32, Clark 30, Edwards 15 Absentee could create a Clark upset

NM Clark 30, Dean 25, Kerry 24 Absentee Vote will kill Kerry

DE Kerry, Edwards, Dean Don't know percentages

ND Kerry 35, Clark 30, Dean 20

MO Kerry 45, Edwards, 25, Clark 15

[Nite Owl]

3. I like it,

hope your right

[lancdem]

4. I think Kerry will win five

while Edwards will win S.C. and Clark Oklahoma. Kerry won't lose Arizona.

[BootinUp]

5. Thats pretty optimistic kentuck

I guess its possible.

My picks:

SC - Edwards, Kerry, Clark
ND - Kerry, Clark, Edwards
DE - Kerry, Dean, Lieberman
OK - Clark, Kerry, Edwards
MO - Kerry, Edwards, Dean
NM - Kerry, Clark, Dean
AZ - Kerry, Clark, Dean



Kerry 5 wins
Clark 1
Edwards 1


meanwhile, I think I need another drink.

[kentuck]

6. I think your DE pick may be better than mine....

Dean will probably beat Lieberman there...

[goobergunch]

7. Here goes!

South Carolina
Edwards 31%
Kerry 24%
Clark 11%

North Dakota
Kerry 30%
Clark 15%
Dean 12%

Delaware
Kerry 39%
Dean 17%
Lieberman 14%

Oklahoma
Clark 28%
Kerry 26%
Edwards 20%

Missouri
Kerry 48%
Edwards 17%
Dean 9%

New Mexico
Kerry 28%
Dean 19%
Clark 18%

Arizona
Kerry 30%
Clark 26%
Dean 18%

Bookmarking.... :evilgrin:

[knight_of_the_star]

8. I'll have to agree with that prediction

It sounds a lot like something that could very well happen, I hope that it does!

Go Wes Clark!!!

[arewethereyet]

9. I have trouble enough with win place show but here goes

SC - Edwards 45%, Kerry 16%, Clark 12%
ND - Kerry 45%, Edwards 15%, Clark 10%
DE - Kerry 30%, Lieberman 16% Edwards 15%
OK - Edwards 30%, Kerry 28%, Clark 20%
MO - Kerry 45%, Edwards 20%, Dean 15%
NM - Kerry 40%, Edwards 18%, Clark 15%
AZ - Kerry 50%, Clark 14%, Dean 10%

Edwards demonstrates potency and there is another change in the weather.

But I've been wrong before !

[kentuck]

11. Those are some interesting picks!

:) We'll have to pull this thread back up tomorrow to see who is the best political prognosticator on DU...

[bowens43]

10. Kerry wins all but SC , Edwards gets SC

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. my predictions (and I predicted Kerry getting 40% last time)

I say ...

In South Carolina...

Kerry - 36%
Edwards - 33%
Clark - 13%

In North Dakota...

Kerry - 30%
Clark - 29%
Edwards - 17%

In Delaware...

Kerry - 35%
Edwards - 25%
Lieberman - 17%

In Oklahoma...

Clark - 34%
Kerry - 32%
Edwards - 20%

In Missouri...

Kerry - 45%
Edwards - 18%
Clark - 15%

In New Mexico...

Kerry - 30%
Dean - 24%
Clark - 23%

In Arizona...

Kerry - 32%
Clark - 29%
Dean - 20%


So I have it, six wins for Kerry. One win and one second place finish for Clark. Three second-place and two third-place finishes for Edwards.

[ModerateMiddle]

13. I'll play, but not that specific

Arizona:

Kerry 33%
Clark 27%

No one else qualifies for delegates (i.e. they get less than 15% of the vote)

Delaware:

Kerry 33%
Dean 16%
Lieberman 16%

No one else qualifies.

Missouri:

Kerry 51%
Edwards 18%

No one else qualifies.

New Mexico:

Kerry 35%
Clark 18%
Dean 15%

No one else qualifies.

North Dakota:

Kerry 41%
Clark 15%

No one else qualifies.

Oklahoma:

Clark 30%
Kerry 28%
Edwards 26%

No one else qualifies.

South Carolina:

Edwards 34%
Kerry 28%

No one else qualifies.

[kentuck]

14. Hmmmmm.....those are very thoughtful....

:)

[Blitz]

15. OK

SC - Edwards 35%, Kerry 27%, Clark 22%

ND - Kerry 35%, Clark 25%, Dean 14%!

DE - Kerry 30%, Lieberman 27%, Dean 13%

OK - Kerry 27% Clark 23%, Dean 12%

MO - Kerry 53%, Clark 17%, Edwards 13%

NM - Kerry 35%, Clark 18%, Dean 16%

AZ - Kerry 32%, Lieberman 19%, Dean 17%

[goodhue]

16. nice predictions!

except Kerry is going to win ND and AZ. OK is only possible Clark victory and even that is far from certain.

[DjTj]

17. Optimist for Edwards...

SC - Edwards 31% Kerry 17%, Clark 15%
ND - Kerry 27%, Clark 24%, Dean 20%
DE - Kerry 32%, Edwards 21%, Lieberman 15%
OK - Edwards 29%, Clark 27%, Kerry 25%
MO - Kerry 37%, Edwards 21%, Dean 17%
NM - Kerry 24%, Clark 21%, Dean 16%
AZ - Kerry 28%, Clark 24%, Dean 15%

[nancyharris]

18. Feb 3 picks

Senator Kerry wins 5, (ND, DE, MO, NM, AZ)
Senator Edwards wins 2 (OK, SC) – big upset in OK

[Kathleen04]

19. Ok, here we go:

My combination prediction and wishful thinking. :evilgrin:

Oklahoma: Clark 36%, Edwards 32%, Kerry 28%

Arizona: Clark 30%, Kerry 28%, Dean 16%

Delaware: Kerry 38%, Lieberman 18%, Dean 15%

South Carolina: Edwards 34%, Clark 27%, Kerry 25%, Sharpton 10%

North Dakota: Kerry 54%, Clark 46%

New Mexico: Clark 33%, Kerry 30%, Dean 24%

Missouri: Kerry 39%, Edwards 20%, Clark 15%

[Bill of Rights]

20. My predictions: win, place, show

SC: Edwards, Kerry, Clark (all get delegates)
MO: Kerry, Edwards, Dean (Kerry and Edwards get delegates)
DE: Kerry, Edwards, Dean (all get delegates)
ND: Kerry, Clark, Edwards (all get delegates)
OK: Clark, Edwards, Kerry (all get delegates)
NM: Clark, Kerry, Dean (all get delegates)
AZ: Clark, Kerry, Dean (all get delegates)

[Gman]

21. So what do you see as the delegate count in these states?

The number of states won is not as important. e.g. Missouri has more delegates than Arizona.

[kentuck]

22. One thing for certain....

Kerry will not win all the delegates...

[MAlibdem]

24. Yeeehaaww

After making predictions, and typing them all out, I remembered I don't make predictions.

In MA, we don't say anything until it happens (Red Sox curse and all).

But I'm optimistic.

[MAlibdem]

25. Yeeehaaww

After making predictions, and typing them all out, I remembered I don't make predictions.

In MA, we don't say anything until it happens (Red Sox curse and all).

But I'm optimistic.

[adamrsilva]

26. Kerry wins 5, real close in other 2

SC: Edwards - 34%, Kerry - 27%, Dean/Clark - 11%

OK: Clark - 32%, Kerry - 31%, Edwards - 23%

MO: Kerry - 55%, Edwards - 18%, Dean - 12%

AZ: Kerry - 41%, Clark - 29%, Dean - 15%

DE: Kerry - 43%, Dean/Edwards - 13%

ND: Kerry - 32%, Clark - 20%, Dean - 15%

NM: Kerry - 31%, Dean - 23%, Clark - 22%

[MoonRiver]

27. I like your predictions!

Why mess with perfection! :yourock:

[mot78]

28. Great prediction

Here's mine:

SC - Edwards 28%, Kerry 24%, Clark 19% Sharpton 11%..gotta include Al

AZ - Clark 29%, Kerry 26%, Dean 19% - Similar to your's

NM - Kerry 30, Clark 22%, Dean 17% -Kerry wins by 8%

OK - Clark 32%, Kerry 28%, Edwards 25% - Close, don't know about Dean

MO - Kerry 34%, Clark 20%, Edwards 19%, Dean 17%

DE - Kerry 33%, Edwards 24%, Lieberman 17% - Joementum is dead

ND - Kerry 26, Clark 24%, Dean 18%

...Kerry wins 4, Clark wins 2, and Edwards wins 1. If Clark does well in the next week or two, this could be a Clark-Kerry race, making Dean and Edwards irrelevant. Of course, this is only a prediction.