Has anybody found a poll showing Kerry leading Bush in a red state?

[dolstein]

Just curious. Frankly, I think these national polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on. As we all should know by now, winning the popular vote doesn't guarantee victory. No Democrat is going to defeat Bush if they can't win a couple red states and be competitive in a few more. I just don't see Kerry accomplishing that.

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. yeah there was that poll in New Hampshire

That showed Kerry, uh, winning among Democrats and Independents. ANd New Hampshire was a red state that was 4,000 or 40,000 votes away from going blue in 2000.

[dolstein]

3. What did the poll show overall?

You can win among Democrats and independents and still lose New Hampshire. There are a hell of a lot more Republicans than there are Democrats. So a Democrat has to do exceptionally well among independents to win.

[THUNDER HANDS]

6. actually I was speaking of the primary

But if you figure that 15% of NH Republicans will not vote for Bush or vote for the Dem nominee, that state is easily up for grabs.

[dolstein]

7. In other words, you haven't seen such a poll

A poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters doesn't even begin to tell you whether Kerry could win New Hampshire in the general election. The primary electorate is not a representative sample of teh general electorate.

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. that's true, however

Since Independents are 1/3 of the electorate, and a hell of a lot of Independents showed up to vote, it tells me that New Hampshire is ripe for the taking by Kerry or any other Dem.

[lancdem]

10. There are about the same number of Dems as Repubs in N.H.

If Repubs outnumber Dems, it's by a narrow margin at most. There are more indys than Dems or Repubs.

[dolstein]

14. As of 10/03, Republicans outnumbered Democrats 254K to 177K

http://www.seacoastonline.com/2003news/10292003/news/57737.htm

Please explain to me how a difference of margin of over 75,000 is "narrow." There are slighly more unaffiliated voters than there are registered Republicans, but both independents and Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Has anybody found a poll showing Dean leading Bush in a red state?

OF COURSE NOT!

lol

[sangh0]

4. Has anybody found a poll showing Lieberman leading Bush in a red state?

.

[dolstein]

8. So you can't find one either, eh?

But hey, nice attempt to change the subject.

[sangh0]

16. SO you can't find them either, eh?

But hey, I guess you're the only one who can ask a question

[arcos]

19. dolstein doesn't support Dean... n/t

[jobycom]

5. I just polled three people I know in Texas

And they all plan to vote for Kerry over Bush. Does that count?

The poll results were very consistent, too. They all agree to vote for Dean, Edwards, Sharpton, or Sqiggy the Lava Lump over Bush. So I think Bush is in trouble, unless Sqiggy's record is not as clean as they believe.

[bornskeptic]

11. The closest I've seen him is this Tennessee poll

from Mason Dixon

Race Republican Democrat Pollster Dates MoE
President Bush 47% Kerry 43% Mason Dixon 1/28-29 5%
Bush 48% Edwards 39%
Bush 49% Clark 40%
Bush 51% Lieberman 36%
Bush 54% Dean 37%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/TNPoll.htm

[dolstein]

13. Thanks

NT

[mndemocrat_29]

12. Does within the margin of error count?

If so:

Mason Dixon Jan. 28-29 in Tennessee

Bush-47
Kerry-43

[dolstein]

17. Sorry, no.

NT

[mndemocrat_29]

20. However, have they done polls in Arkansas or West Virginia yet?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

15. I doubt that we will until we have a candidate with a RUNNING mate

I do think the RED STATE/ BLUE state issue will be a factor of RUNNING MATES AND third party votes.

If one peruses SWING STATES.ORG, one will see many of those alleged RED states are within reach.

[David Zephyr]

18. No. Dolstein. Not One.

It bears contemplation.

[Doctor_J]

21. I gotta believe

he's within epsilon in NH and OH. Maybe MO too.