There Seems to be a Disconnect

[On the Road]

between the claims that:

(1) Dean made a huge strategic mistake by spending too much in IA and NH.

(2) Dean wasted millions of dollars by building a nationwide organization.

They cannot both be true. Kerry's momentum seems to support the importance of winning those contests. But on the other hand, if going for broke in IA and NH was bad, then building a long-term, nationwide organzation was good. The nationwide organization was also designed to get a head start on the GE.

All the candidates spent most of their money up front. I'm beginning to think there IS no financial scandal here.

[ibegurpard]

1. you're beginning to think?

There never was a financial scandal. It was an attempt to grind Dean into the dust after some dispiriting losses.

[sangh0]

2. I don't see it

IMO, it's possible to spend too much money in IA and NH, while at the same time, spend too much money on a nationwide organization.

BTW, you got it wrong. It's not that he spent too much money on a national organization. It's that he spent too early on it.

[On the Road]

4. Yes, It's Possible That He Spent Too Early

but the primaries are designed to reward that behavior.

It's 20-20 hindsight. If Dean had won NH, much less IA, he would not only get the front-runner bump in the polls and fundraising, but ALSO have a huge lead in organization.

That was the idea -- and until a few weeks ago, it was supported by all the polls. Seems like a good strategy.

And Dean STILL seems to have the most cash on hand of all the candidates. I haven't seen any reason not to think this is a phony story.

[sangh0]

9. That's not true

the primaries are designed to reward that behavior

I'm not sure where you heard that one. The one I've heard is about how voters have a poor memory, so campaigning to soon does little good because those ads are forgotten before the voting starts.

If Dean had won NH, much less IA, he would not only get the front-runner bump in the polls and fundraising, but ALSO have a huge lead in organization

I agree. IMO, shooting to win in NH an IA was the only likely way Dean could win the nomination. If it had worked, we'd all be calling Dean a genius. Unfortunately, it didn't work.

And Dean STILL seems to have the most cash on hand of all the candidates. I haven't seen any reason not to think this is a phony story

Not a "phony" story. The majority of stories about elections typically revolve around "process" stories that depict it like a horse race, and are usually light on the issues. Also, while Dean has cash in hand, candidates who do worse than expected (a description which applies to Dean) often see the donations reduced.

[displacedtexan]

3. I'd agree if Dean were polling better in all of those other states.

The only thing I saw in Iowa and NH was that Dean supporters didn't actually vote. Did they think there would be enough people voting that they didn't have to show up? I'm still confused about where the Dean supporters went.

[KC21304]

10. I think most of the Dean supporters you saw in Iowa

were young people brought in from other states, and sadly they were not allowed to caucus. I heard that strategy even got under the skin of some of the older people. I may be wrong.

[Freedom of Speech]

11. but I don't think you are. n/t

[rucky]

5. We still haven't seen the full products from all of Dean's spending...

Ad spots was pre-purchased. Plenty more ads will run off of what has already been paid for.

[On the Road]

8. Really?

See, there's another angle I didn't know. It just keeps getting better.

And yet the picture people are left with is a flat broke organization, a campaign manager fired under a cloud of allegations, and an inability to control money. Amazing.

[Hep]

6. It was the pens

I'm telling you, I get dozens and dozens of pens every month from DFA.

[isbister]

7. Didn't Dean himself say

it was a strategic mistake by spending too much in IA and NH?

[HereSince1628]

12. Its not a scandel, its a shame...

he needed to hold back or otherwise have 10 million or so to split among the February primaries and caucuses.

He ended up with half that and the result imposed on him cutting back his activity. I don't think anyone broke any laws or ethical guidelines, its disappointing and makes the rest of the campaign more important.