Is it me, or Does Kerry seem inevitable?

[x-g.o.p.er]

Just thinking out loud. I initially thought Kerry was my choice, but I am now leaning hard towards Edwards. But it seems like Kerry is a foregone conclusion at this point, based on some new polling information.

Kerry's rail against the "special interests" seem a tad hollow, and I really, really like Edwards' populist, Huey-Long type vision. Plus, he is as smooth as 12 year old scotch, isn't he?

For the good of the republic, ABB in '04!

[jean]

1. Edwards is too smooth for some of us

[revcarol]

2. As long as people still think, Kerry is NOT inevitable.

Yesterday, I persuaded 2 Kerry voters to vote for Kucinich in the election tomorrow.

[redqueen]

3. Well done!

:yourock:

[Jacobin]

In the media induced circus atmosphere of the Dem primaries.....

It is great sport to build up a candidate as "inevitable" "invincible", etc and then rip them to shreds, as in a public flogging (See Howard Dean's recent rise and fall).

This is great theatre for the masses and good for ratings.

Kerry will be built up as indominable and then, at his apex, he will be flogged, shredded, drawn and quartered for some perceived flaw (one which will have nothing to do with his policies or serious problems like his IWR vote).

Stay tuned for the next excoriation.

[x-g.o.p.er]

6. Like the ridiculous Botox controversy, by chance?

The shallowness of the electorate can really discourage me sometimes.

[Jacobin]

12. Perhaps even something more petty

than a scream projected to an audience of 3000, and picked up on a microphone at close range, and then played endlessly on radio and tv while everyone laughs and hoots.

Very probably, something more inane than that. As long as its silly, it'll stick.

[HereSince1628]

4. It's you

this isn't over until Kerry has the 2200 or so dedicated delegates needed at the convention.

[ChiefJoseph]

5. Yup

I don't see how Dean turns it around at this point.

In my mind, the guy who would give * the toughest race is John Edwards. I like Kerry all right, but I heard someone call him the Bob Dole of the Democratic party and that sounded about right. Good man, but can't really fire up the electorate. I think Edwards has more natural ability and would give * a tougher run.

[afraid_of_the_dark]

14. Unfortunately, I don't know if Edwards has the "pull" yet...

I'm still holding out hope for Howard Dean myself, but it looks like he's already served his purpose and may fall to the wayside soon. As Kerry has already had a lengthy career as a politician, he has more name recognition and a longer voting record than Edwards. While Edwards may have the advantage as far as getting the Southern states' votes, I don't think he has enough "pull" with the rest of the country to be formidable presidential candidate. I'd be happy to see him as VP though (although he's my second presidential candidate choice after Dean).

However, it's still anyone's game. There's enough fluidity in the polls that Edwards could see a big positive swing if he finishes strong on Tuesday. With only two states in, I'm not giving up yet. :)

[newyawker99]

16. Hi ChiefJoseph!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[displacedtexan]

7. Kerry's rail against special interests:

Some of the $1000 donations from individual lobbyists represent orgs like these:

Emily's list
Sierra Club
The Chippewa and Ottawa Tribes
Clean Air and Water Initiative
MADD

Kerry can't attack Bush's* Enron/Halliburton ties if Dean makes the above listed orgs equal to *'s big time special interest groups.
Thanks, Dean!

[emulatorloo]

15. Thank You!!!!

If you haven't started your own thread w this, I recommend it.

[kentuck]

8. Until he loses a couple of primaries, it will seem that way....

But that invincibility will disappear as soon as he loses one state.

[AntiCoup2K4]

9. Kerry as nominee isn't for the "good of the republic"

But it will be great for the Republicans. :(

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. Kerry was inevitable, then Dean was inevitable, now Kerry is

Yes it is musical chairs and at some point the music stops, and maybe Kerry will have that seat when it does. If Clark and Edwards have good nights Kerry is certainly not inevitable. He has wide support because he "seems Presidential" and has been "a winner" but Kerry's support is no deeper than Dean's or Clark's, and probably not deeper than Edward's. That means things can turn again if Kerry has his "momentum" slowed a little tomorrow, and if "front runner" scrutiny starts to open cracks.

I think the other leading contenders have more capacity to excite Democrats than Kerry does. But each has to appear "credible" for significant numbers of Democrats to vote for them this year, when beating Bush is everything.

[IrateCitizen]

11. It's not just you... but it's far from inevitable

Remember, there were people here just one month ago proposing that the primaries be eschewed and everybody just unite behind Dean, since he was clearly destined to be the nominee.

Support who you want to support in the primaries. Nothing is inevitable until one candidate has a majority of delegates locked up. We have only had two nominating contests thus far -- neither of which comprise a very large number of delegates.

[Bonobo]

13. Yep, it's just you.

[krkaufman]

17. Turn off your TV

It only seems inevitable if everyone keeps watching TV and reading polls.

[LuminousX]

18. Just you.

[YNGW]

19. Depends.

Depends on who the party leaders decide to anoint. There are forces working behind the scenes, deciding who the media should attack, placing candidates to take out other candidates, setting up who they want to win for their own reasons. Whoever wins will win because it's who these party leaders want to win. And if and/or (more likely) when they want to take out the nominee for their own purposes, you'll see the attack dogs go to work.

Think Clinton.

[abburdlen]

20. Seems that way

But it wasn't too long ago that everyone knew Dean had the nomination all locked up.

[kaitykaity]

21. Not inevitable.

Won't connect with the middle, too patrician for the wage earners, too focused on war record for the peaceniks, and too indebted to the special interests to run a genuinely populist campaign.
(Thanking a Guy James caller from Saturday.)