Dean may have just the right strategy...

[kentuck]

What if Kerry wins all 7 primaries tomorrow? This really damages or knocks out just about every candidate in the race...except one. That would be Howard Dean because he is not campaigning in those seven states. If several withdraw, it could narrow the field down to Dean and Kerry. With a smaller field, Dean would probably make a much more competitive showing. Anyone else thought of this scenario?

[sallyseven]

1. I doubt that Clark or Edwards will drop out.

I think Dean will be the odd man out very soon. I myself, thought Dean was viable some time ago. I no longer think so.

[kentuck]

6. I doubt that Edwards will stay in if he loses SC ?

He might. Lieberman, I think, will drop out if he does not win Delaware or comes in second in a couple of states. I doubt that he will. Although I am hoping Clark wins a couple of states and gets a couple of seconds, if he did worse than expected, it would make it a very difficult road ahead, in my opinion. I really don't think Kucinich or Sharpton are factors in the race, sorry :( to all those supporters. We know Dean is going to be in at least the next primaries. It would probably help him somewhat if a couple of people did drop out, perhaps..:)

[Freedom of Speech]

12. I thought it had been leaked

that Lieberman will drop out for sure after tomorrow.

[D G]

2. Memo to Dean: skip more primaries!

;) Interesting idea, though. I don't doubt that Dean will be in this to the bitter end.

[fjc]

3. I think Clark and Edwards are running for VP.

[krkaufman]

15. Yes, Very Presidential...

As for the Snipe Brothers... the longer this goes on, the more likely the public will grow tired of their routines.

[Casablanca]

21. Agreed. So they should drop out and run for VP properly.

Free up those delegates for Dean!

[fjc]

24. I think Dean is dead as a candidate. Too bad. I like him.

[Casablanca]

25. Based on what? His delegate count?

This is a nine-inning game, and you're trying to call it after the first.

[fjc]

26. I think we're way beyond the first.

His poll numbers have nearly reversed themselves, all across the country as I understand it. And that delegate count won't look so hot after tommorrow night.

[library_max]

35. Don't count Dean out yet.

He's got a lot of staying power; campaign money and nationwide organization. The nomination race is still wide open.

[Hep]

4. Hard to say. I've felt lately that people just don't want to get it

which is bad for Dean.

[markus]

5. It also leaves Dean free to stay comparative until Wednesday

He then needs to get on all positive message for the closing days to Michican and Washington.

People who are being all high-and-mighty about this now (Kerry) or previously (Gepardt and Dean) need to understand how the real world of politics work.

Pretending it's not a rough-and-tumble business from the get go is one way to set yourself up for disappointment in November.

Hell, Dean is doing Kerry, et al a favor by getting all of the dirty laundry our early, so it seems like "old news" to media and voters come summer and fall, whoever is the nominee. (And if it's dirty, and it's your guys laundry, well, there this old saying about the fit of shoes).

But at least one win would be helpful, or at least a showing well above Zogby or our own North Dakota poll of last week.

[Frodo]

7. I don't think so.

The problem in this case is that Kerry and Dean are fighting for the same "wing" of the party. Clark, Edwards and, to a lesser extent, Lieberman all have their feet in the "centrist" wing of the party.

Now if Clark and Lieberman dropped out, you could argue that it could make Edwards suddenly "viable" as a opponent to Kerry (especially if he wins SC comfortably and "shows" in a couple other states).

But if two of those three drop out there aren't going to be that many voters who see Dean as the next best alternative, they'll go to whoever the remaining moderate is. If ALL THREE drop out (and I don't see that happening unless Edwards get clobbered by Kerry in SC) I don't think Dean picks up as many as Kerry does.

I actually think Kerry is further left than Dean on most issues, but he's sold himself better as being closer to the middle.


This may be Dean's best option (along with hoping Kerry steps on his own tail), but I think it's a long shot.

[Eloriel]

11. Kerry has sold himself as a lot of things he isn't

Or, more accurately, is willing to be whatever seems popular -- and most of all safe!!!! -- at the moment.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Exactly how Dean is described by many. nt

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. So what happens when

In the later states, Kerry beats Dean 70%-30%.

Are we going to cry over the intelligence of the voters? Or blame the media?

Or for once, blame Dean?

[ACPS65]

14. Now Now

You know full well Kerry STOLE those votes in Iowa/New Hampshire.

[PVnRT]

27. Then the people will have spoken

But at least the rest of the states would actually get to make their voice heard, instead of being silenced by the media hyping one candidate and essentially forcing the others to drop out.

[rucky]

9. Dean's new strategy is to win delegates - not states.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/02/02/new_dean_strategy_raises_eyebrows/

And if he's successful, people will have the same "WTF?" reaction as when * "won" the electoral vote & Gore won the popular vote.

That would sour too many Democrats & weaken Dean in the GE.

[krkaufman]

17. Soured Democrats

Trust me, there will be plenty not-so-sweet Democrats if they're not given an opportunity to help select the candidate.

I feel similarly now to how I felt back in December 2000, except this time it's my own party that is reaming me.

[markus]

19. Um, how would winning the nomination fair and square sour people

We are selecting delegates, not counting popular vote.

That's just the way it works.

Dean remains the front runner until tomorrow, when that will change. the question is, by how much? For Kerry to really distance himself from Dean, he will have to have commanding leads in most states.

For example, let's say N.D. goes Kerry 36, Clark 24, Dean 20, all others below 15% (and so get no delegates). Dean and Clark would both get three to Kerry's five.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Given the level of support for Edwards, Gephardt etc....

I doubt all those folks would rush to Dean. Look at what is going on in Missouri, or better yet Arizona. I think Kerry is preferred by a bigger chunk of the primary voters if it came down to a simple head to head.

[afraid_of_the_dark]

16. I don't know...

I have this awful feeling that the damage to Dean has been done. He was the front-runner for so long that the spin-doctors were able to thoroughly trash him.

Plus, if he doesn't win any states Tuesday, how will he come up with the momentum to raise funds to contine campaigning?

[stickdog]

18. Well, it didn't work for Clark in Iowa ... (nt)

[library_max]

20. I don't see how it helps Dean to narrow the field.

I see a lot of Clark and Edwards supporters who are also okay with Kerry. Dean's support seems more monolithic to me. Also, if it was Kerry vs. Dean, Kerry would be the only candidate in the race with military experience. And he'd have tremendous momentum.

[TexasPatriot]

22. I've been thinking about Deans strategy for a week

and, honestly, i think it's probably the best one he's got. Holding back and playing ropeadope waiting for the others to wear themselves out, using the free press to smack Kerry around here and there, then trying to be the last not-kerry standing... it's not half bad

but here's the problem

If Kay's reports on WMD had come out BEFORE Iowa, Dean would be gold. He could have obliterated Kerry and Edwards with their IWR votes.

But for them to come out now - it REALLY hurts Dean, because now all the dems get a bump vs W in the polls - and with Kerry as the frontrunner, he becomes the most electable.

The strategy really needed Clark/Edwards to do well enough tomorrow to stay a couple weeks, but not well enough to become the clear alternative. But now, if someone doesnt emerge the alternative tomorrow I just dont see how anyone will compete for it.

We dont vote with weighted votes, where you pick anything up after a candidate withdraws. Right now, Dean's staying in the race is probably the best thing John Kerry has going for him (followed by Lieberman's staying in).

[cthrumatrix]

29. time and his message to be heard by america...they will see the real Dean

and not the media "creation". It's certainly one that has a big pay off if it is to work.

[Andromeda]

23. I think that was the purpose of this strategy...

Dean is concentrating on states where he has the best chance of winning. He's still good in California and I think campaigning one on one with Kerry (if the others drop out) would give Dean a great advantage. Kerry is ahead now because of the inevitability factor--- and that's what is hurting Dean right now.

[Southsideirish]

28. Andree Dean didn't raise any fools! (n/t)

[quaker bill]

30. Alternately what if Kerry loses a few?

Then it starts looking a bit more like Kerry can be beaten. Right now Kerry stands undefeated. Perhaps on Wednesday that will not be the case. Either way, it potentially opens the door for Dean.

The plan also leaves more time to distance himself from the media bash. He has also cut down on the rate of expenditure while continuing to gather contributions.

The only possible adverse outcome is Kerry landslides in all seven. This seems unlikely given the current polls.

I think the plan is quite well considered.

[Kathleen04]

31. I don't think this is a wise strategy

The best chance of it working is if Kerry makes a 7 state sweep..which even if it did happen would leave Dean FAR behind and Kerry with all the momentum.

I think it would make more sense for Dean to be putting up a harder fight in Delaware instead of conceding it to Kerry and Lieberman. Unlike Kerry, he could have spent all week there! I'm not sure how many delegates it's worth, presumably not that many compared to the other states, but I think it could have been a probable win that would at least give him some of the "winner image" going into the states that he's competing for next (Michigan, Washington, Maine, etc).

[bain_sidhe]

32. On the other hand...

If Kerry seems "inevitable" now, how much MORE inevitable will he seem if he wins all seven? I can't see Dean overcoming Kerry's "winners" aura if Kerry takes all seven. No, I think Dean's best bet is if Clark and Edwards weaken Kerry tomorrow, and puncture that "balloon" of inevitability. Just MHO.

[OutlawCorporatePolls]

33. dean will hit 15% in some tuesday states...

without even advertising, and pick up delegates. why spend all the money to get up to 25-35%? so the media can say YOU WON? good strategy. his national work up until this point should pay off, without having to pay the media for airtime. then, onto Michigan. and most importantly, California, with 370 at stake (more than everyone combined tomorrow).

its all about delegates, not which and HOW MANY races u win. that is why the media doesnt report delegate counts on tv.

[kentuck]

34. I think that is exactly what is going to happen...

Once people see that Kerry is not inevitable, they will feel more comfortable voting for who they think is hte best person, rather than voting for "electability" only...