The beating of Bush

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/leaders/story/0,3604,1136658,00.html

For Democratic voters preparing to pick a presidential candidate in tomorrow's latest round of state primaries, it seems that one issue, and one problem, dominates all others: George Bush. The nub of the matter is the perceived, national (and international) divisiveness of Mr Bush's presidency; the overriding challenge is finding somebody, anybody, who can beat him. Other issues, such as jobs, healthcare, schools, security and social opportunity all figure in the equation. But these are the hardy perennials of the campaign trail. As the exit polls in the first primary, in New Hampshire, clearly indicated, the uppermost thought in many voters' minds was not a candidate's specific policies but his "win-ability".

This fundamental consideration goes some way towards accounting for John Kerry's eclipse of anti-war Howard Dean in Iowa and New Hampshire despite the fact that Mr Kerry supported the war in Iraq and half or more of the voters did not. It explains why Mr Kerry, a stereotyped liberal New Englander who is projecting himself as a tough and experienced yet caring and unifying figure, is leading in far-flung and (to him) unfamiliar states like Missouri and Arizona. On what is likely to be the issue that Mr Bush will press most strongly - America's post 9/11 defence - Vietnam veteran Kerry can argue persuasively that he knows more about the subject than the president. A visceral desire to see the back of Mr Bush also helps explain why turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire reached record highs -and may do so again in tomorrow's seven contests. snip

If the Democrats obsess about picking a winner, they can be forgiven for doing so. Mr Bush remains a formidable opponent against whom even a more broadly appealing, charismatic candidate than, say, Mr Kerry would have difficulty. Almost unnoticed amid the Democrats' shenanigans, Mr Bush's re-election campaign is well under way. His state of the union address last month was, in effect, a shameless stump speech, intended to attract swing voters and reassure conservatives. He is pre-emptively fund-raising at a dizzying rate - $7.3m in January alone, giving a running total of $140m so far. He is honing his image as the "war leader" who prevented a repeat of 9/11, toppled Saddam and deserves the nation's patriotic support. His scary vice-president, Dick Cheney, is even trying an image makeover, swapping the occasional smile for his customary snarl.

All the same, Mr Bush is vulnerable. The personal hostility he inspires aside, he is vulnerable on jobs, inequitable tax cuts, rising deficits and on the resulting spending cuts that will be unveiled in today's budget. Iraq could yet blow up in his face; at home, the WMD controversy is intensifying. The independent Kean commission's report into pre-9/11 security and intelligence failures, due in May, may be another big booby-trap. And then, as always, there is al-Qaida. As yesterday's airline alerts again showed, Mr Bush has signally failed to eliminate this threat - and may have made it worse. Depending on events between now and November, this basic failure of a presidency uniquely defined and challenged by an unprecedented tragedy could yet be the unmaking of the president.

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[LiberalVoice]

1. That sounds dirty

:P