So Kerry (or some other candidate) can't win in the south?

[mohc]

Results from a Mason Dixon poll in Tennessee 1/28-29
5% MoE
Bush 47 Kerry 43
Bush 48 Edwards 39
Bush 49 Clark 40
Bush 51 Lieberman 36
Bush 54 Dean 37

And Primary numbers
Kerry 31
Clark 22
Edwards 13
Dean 7
Lieberman 6
Sharpton 3
Kucinich 0
Undecided 18

Kerry's within the MoE, Clark and Edwards would probably be closer with better name recognition. No matter how you read it, having three candidates that can keep Bush below 50% at this point is a very good sign. Just as a disclaimer, I'm for Edwards, not Kerry. I will however happily support Kerry should he become the nominee.

[Leilani]

1. This is why we must not write off the South

BTW, I agree with you on name recognition for Edwards & Clark.
If they were as well known as Kerry, I believe they would poll as well, if not better than Kerry.

[Old and In the Way]

2. I agree.

Repudiation of this administration needs to be a national referendum. I want to see Bush lose all 50 states. There's still 9 months to go and I don't see this administration turning anything around, just more of the same. Plus, there are more investigations starting, 9/11 investigation will be in the news and I think the word will get out far more powerfully now about this adminsitration's incompetence.

The issues that affect Northern states, affect Southern states as well. I see no reason why a Democrat can't marshall all Americans to send Republicans a big message this fall: we've had it with your war against the middle class.

[Adjoran]

3. Writing off the south

is suicide. No Democrat has EVER won the Presidency without at least two southern states, and only Clinton did it with only two, in a three-way race.

We can compete in the south, it is fertile territory. If we abandon the south, we have to win 70% of the rest of the EC votes to win.

If we don't fight in the south, we don't win. We have good chances in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennesee, and reasonable shots at Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. Surrendering without a fight is not an option, if we want to win.

[mohc]

4. Depending on ones definition of south

Cliton won 5 southern states in both elections. Cliton won AR, LA, and TN in both elections. GA in 1992 and FL in 1996. So at the very least 4. Clinton also won KY both times, so generally speaking he is considered to have won 5 southern states, which is the least any Democratic ticket has ever won while still winning the election. If we were using the census definition of the south, we would also have to throw in WV, MD, and DE, but politically speaking its obviously better to consider those mid-Atlantic states.