The **Big** Question For Dean on Tuesday

[1floridademocrat]

IS this:

Does all the effort Dean put into getting "early votes" help come Tuesday in AZ?

Now, I fully and FREELY admit that these numbers might be just blowing smoke, and I can't verify them. However for simplty the sake of Arguement (I use caps because this is ALL simply theory) if Dean DOES have 20,000 votes ALREADY cast for him, will this make a real diffrence for him?

Now, again, this number may be WAY off, I have no way of knowing, but thats the number I've seen bandied around.

The other question I have centers arounf New Mexico.

The estimates are that only around 10% of the voters who can vote are going to come out in NM. Mostly due to the fact that most peopel aren't really tuning into the fact that NM is no longer in June, its in Feb now.

That works out from the numbers I can get to: 48,000 voters voting on Tuesday in NM.

The AQ journal had an interesting blurb in thier paper that this might HELP Dean simply because most of his support in NM are activists, and those people almost always come out and vote.

If THIS is true, and turnout is low in NM, and Dean's people are the only ones who REALLY turn out in force come Tuesday, how well can Dean do?


While I'd love Dean to win BOTH states, I don't think he has a shot in hell really. However, if he comes a damn close second in both (within 2-3 points in each) can he get some Mo back?

Again, this is theory, no facts to back this up other that random internet info. Its a "what if" game..

So..

IF Dean really does already have 20,000 votes in AZ thanks to "early voting" how will that effect AZ final numbers?
IF turnout in NM is as low as the expectations, can Dean do a lot better than expected due to his "activist" base?

[1floridademocrat]

1. Bleh

Supposed to read sake OF arguement

[Eloriel]

9. You can edit your post if you do so within 1 hour after posting

Click on "edit" along the gray bar of your post. Voila! You get to go in and make changes.

[patricia92243]

2. Oh please God - let this be true - rescue our nation!!

[sistersofmercy]

3. I would edit your post, the excessive caps will get it locked

It's one of the rules for posting, no excessive caps.
Sorry I don't think Dean will take AZ or NM.

[1floridademocrat]

5. Changed

But That wasn't what I was asking really.. I don't think he will win either really.. but will the "early voting " make much diffrence?

[sistersofmercy]

7. I don't think so

[seaglass]

4. You should change your thread title, it can't have all caps

or it might get locked.

[David Dunham]

6. It looks like Kerry wins AZ, Clark 2nd, Dean a distant 3rd

[InvisibleTouch]

8. What "Early Voting"?

What is this "early voting," exactly? I'm just curious, have never heard of this before. People can cast ballots several days beforehand in Arizona?

[sistersofmercy]

10. Welcome to DU, MedusaSaur!

Yes, some of the states one can vote early but I forget which states. I think AZ is one of those states. :hi:

[GalleryGod]

11. I'm not an Early Vote Aficionado Either? Who Knows?

Dean's Last Stand is more like it...more apt if it were South Dakota:think:

Glad to see more Kerry-On! Gang!
G.G.:smoke:

[1floridademocrat]

12. Yes

They can.. the *rumor* is that Dean already has 20,000 early votes that were cast prior to Iowa and NH.

Does this make a big diffrence?

Who knows? Supposedly there has been a large number of absentee ballots cast in NM as well, with teh *rumor* being that they went to Dean as well.

While I'm a Dean supporter, I don't think he has a chance on winning either state, but I do think he has a shot at winning delagates at both.