How low can Shrub's approval go?

[RedEarth]

Reader Stephanie M. wrote in with an excellent question today: How low can presidential approval fall? Is there some natural lower limit below which it cannot go. At the same time, some Democratic partisans are posing the same question, though with more glee than scientific curiosity.

The short answer, of course, must be that no one knows how far President Bush's approval rating can and will fall. My view is that this is primarily a function of events, the economy, and presidential leadership success or failure. Some presidents have fallen quite low and then rebounded while others have become mired in their slumps and make only modest recoveries. Lacking a crystal ball, I have no idea what successes or failures may be forthcoming from the White House, so I'm not trying to make a prediction of the bottom of approval for the Bush presidency. Rather I'm trying to answer Stephanie's question and put the President's approval ratings in some more perspective.

First, I'm using only Gallup data in order to have comparability over time, so no CBS 34% here. At his current 38% Gallup approval, President Bush can take some (small) comfort in the fact that every president since Kennedy has fallen below 38% at some time in their presidency. Here are the low points and their dates:

Truman, 22%, 14 Feb 1952 *All time low.
Eisenhower, 48%, 1 Apr 1958
Kennedy, 56%, 17 Sep 1963
Johnson, 35%, 12 Aug 1968
Nixon, 23%., 7 Jan 1974
Carter, 28%, 2 Jul 1979
Reagan, 35%, 31 Jan 1983
Bush (GHW), 29%, 2 Aug 1992
Clinton, 37%, 6 Jun 1993
Bush (GW), 37, 13 Nov 2005

..........

The great strength of President Bush remains "the base", or Republican partisans in this case. Here he far surpasses "par", with an 82% approval rating among Republicans (as opposed to the expected rate of just 69% in the figure.) Even at his low point in November, President Bush still captured 79% support among Republicans in the Gallup poll. (CBS has a much lower estimate, 72%. The Gallup data have been quite stable in the low 80% range for some while.) So long as the base remains this loyal, it can buffer to some extent the unhappy independents. Given where independents and Democrats are at this point, the President would be in much worse shape if Republicans were not so strongly supporting him. A fall to the expected 69% or so would cost the President some 3-4% points in approval and put him at 34-35% overall support, rather than the current 38%. This is why current Republican Congressional unrest over the Dubai port company sale and other events should be a source of particular concern. Conservative displeasure with Harriet Miers' Supreme Court nomination helped drive down Republican support a little during the fall. The White House can ill afford losses here.

So, there is clearly room for more decline in Bush's approval rating. Democrats can't do much more harm but independents and especially Republicans can and both groups have some room for further decline, with Republican losses the most worrisome. By the same token, if the President won back some of the independents, he could stand to gain modestly. At about 32% of the adult population, a gain of 3% support among independents offers a 1% gain in overall standing. In point of fact, this is much of where the President's boost came in November and December. Between November 13 and December 11, Bush gained 10% approval among independents, from 28 to 38% support. Since December 11, however, independents have fallen back to their current 27% support.


more....

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/03/how-low-can-approval-go.html

[HereSince1628]

1. theoretically, it can only go to zero. It can't go negative.

Personally I hope Bush plumbs the depth of the lower limit :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

9. Anything above 1% is too high in my book. n/t

[unblock]

2. wow, jfk never fell below 56%?

i wonder what it's like to have such a popular president that generally the whole country is behind.

aside from the mafia, that is.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

3. 25%-30%

If he gets on tv, and goes through a list admitting all his screw ups, all his LIES, all his manipulating of the facts, all his crimes.....if he concludes the reading by admitting that he's an alcoholic, that he does drugs on a daily basis. If he states that he's guilty of killing several people intentionally.

Even if he does ALL these things, there will still be 25%+ who would approve of him and the job he's doing.

Our country is That Fucked Up!

[AlinPA]

6. I'd say a bit higher, about 35%, a number which I think represents the

"Christian" base. I use quotes because they sure as hell are not Christians with all their hate and intolerance. A lot of them are the flat-earth Santorum-Robertson-Falwell type who believe Bush** is elected because God wanted the moran in there.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

8. I Don't Think The Religious Wackos Are 35% Of This Country

At least not yet. There's plenty of brainwashing going on daily, so the # of religious freaks is increasing.

But I think that percentage who are not only religious, but also right wing diehards, is closer to 20-25%. I still don't think we've reached that "base" yet though. There are still some non-religious idiots, who will support him just because he's King, and the leader of the repub party.

[AlinPA]

11. Non-religious idiots, yes -there are quite a few; I'm basing my statement

on the surveys I've heard about how many evangelicals there are who voted for Bush** the last time. I'll look at some numbers to see what surveys say. I've seen surveys (I'll try to locate them) that indicate more than 50% of 'muricans believe the earth is 6000 years old (re: creationism issues recently. I know that's one item, but if that's true, there are a lot of religious freaks who also like Bush** because he is seen by them as close to being a saint.

[doni_georgia]

4. I have no idea how low he CAN go, but would love to find out!

I personally believe that there is a segment of the population that will support him no matter what. I think of the right wingers I know who are absolutely clueless about what is happening in the world.

[FrankLee]

5. It can go to 2%, and it won't bother Bush

After all, he's got God on his side. He's been talkin' to God. God told him to invade Afghanistan and Iraq. All these other voices, these peons, don't understand that Bush is the annointed one.

[Doctor_J]

7. Look at Big Dog's min rating!

4.5 months after he moved in! You don't think the press was gunning for him during the campaign, do you?

Then once he got settled in, he won people over, despite 8 years of smear from the GOP hate machine.

Contrast this with Smirky, who, except for LIHOP on 9/11/01 and launching Operation I'm a War President in March 03, has been in one long death spiral.

[Disturbed]

10. It could go as low as 25%.

I feel that the lowest will be 30% after the Dubai Port deal goes through.