UNDENIABLE proof, Kerry can beat Bush...#'s do not lie!

[ShaneGR]

And I'm an Edwards supporter. But I'm a bit tired of all the Kerry bashing (too much sour grapes IMO)

Here's a VERY interesting poll from Newsweek:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4120028/

(snips)
Jan. 31 - Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, fresh from his victory in the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday, holds a substantial lead over Democratic rivals in the race for the White House, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Meanwhile, President George W. Bush’s approval ratings have slipped to historic lows, the poll shows.

Kerry has widened his lead versus his closest competitors to a convincing 30 points-45 percent of Democrats polled support Kerry, compared to former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s 14 percent and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ 11 percent. Kerry now strikes two-thirds of Democratic voters (65 percent) as the contender most likely to beat Bush in November and an overwhelming 82 percent of Democrats view Kerry favorably,

In a hypothetical vote, Kerry and Bush are locked in a dead heat, with Kerry pulling 48 percent or registered voters vs. Bush’s 46 percent. Those numbers are increasingly important to Kerry: 43 percent of Democrats say electability is their most important issue in choosing a candidate. Forty-six percent say they care more about issue compatibility (last week 53 percent chose issue compatibility while only 39 percent considered electability the most important factor).

While Kerry is enjoying his bounce in the polls, Bush’s approval rating is at an all-time low in the NEWSWEEK poll, slipping to 49 percent (with 43 percent approving). Almost half (49 percent) do not want to see the president reelected in the fall (compared to 45 percent who do), which represents a slight improvement in his favor over last week, when 52 percent didn’t want to see him re-elected (44 percent did).

[kentuck]

1. Numbers may not lie but they can change by this time next week...

If you don't think so, look at Howard Dean's numbers just before Iowa and NH....

[Raya]

Howards numbers were always weak vs Bush.

[kentuck]

9. But his numbers were ahead of all the other Democrats...

at one time...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Against Bush? Citation?

[creativelcro]

2. The crucial flaw: HYPOTHETICAL VOTE

[ShaneGR]

14. Find me just ONE poll where Dean is within 5 points of Bush

Please

[kentuck]

16. Has there been such a poll since Bush's recent slip in the polls?

The Democrats in the debates, and the discussions created from them, have weakened Bush in the last few weeks.

[ShaneGR]

19. A lot of polls lately show the following

Kerry beating or within the statistical range for a tie of Bush.

Edwards and Kerry either losing slightly (Within 5) or within the statistical range for a tie.

Lieberman losing by about 10 points.

Dean usually loses by about 10, but sometimes more.

[creativelcro]

24. So, you are saying that NATIONAL polls conducted 10 months

before a GE have some deep meaning ? That would be a very weak argument for or against any candidate.

[murielm99]

3. Thank you for your post.

I am a bit tired of Kerry bashing, too.

I am not a Kerry supporter, either, but I see his good points. I have two kids who are working for his campaign, and they are always trying to convert me. I will wait and see.

Let us all get behind the nominee, whoever that is!

[girl gone mad]

4. These numbers reflect..

the national attention Kerry is getting from his early wins.

If Dean, Edwards, Clark, Sharpton or even Kucinich had won, I think they're numbers would be where Kerry's are.

[KC21304]

7. That sounds reasonable to me. Whoever has the best numbers

usually wins.


Edited for clarity.

[Toucano]

5. Do they have numbers for the other candidates in the head to head?

I noticed ARG only published the Bush v. Kerry scenario, too.

[bornskeptic]

23. Dems vs Bush

Kerry 48
Bush 46

Bush 49
Edwards 44

Bush 52
Lieberman 41

Bush 52
Dean 40

Bush 53
Clark 41

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4120028

[Toucano]

28. Thank you. n/t

[SadEagle]

6. Uhm, if early poll numbered where a good predictor.

... Then we would not have seen Bill Clinton beating George Bush I, as he was trailing significantly at this stage of the game, and since there wouldn't have been a Bush I anyway, he having been defeated in a landslide by Michael Dukakis. About the only thing these numbers say is that Dubya is not well-liked. They don't predict which way the support will go once the ads, including the attacks, start rolling

[Duder]

8. This guy doesn't agree...

http://www.birddogger.org/blog.php?id=46

[anti-NAFTA]

10. Let's pray that Kerry doesn't

Let's pray that Kerry doesn't take any tank rides like his friend Mike did.

John's hockey-playing and denim-shirt wearing is already stretching the limit.

[Anwen]

12. A few weeks ago there was UNDENIABLE proof that Dean was going to win Iowa

Numbers change. I'm not trying to bash, but poll numbers are fickle.

[Hawkeye-X]

13. Sorry. the proof is rejected

Kerry will start losing momentum soon once the press declares that Kerry is the anointed one, and then voters start to stay home while the Deans grassroots supporters are too motivated to throw out the anointed one and get Dean vs. Bush where Dean is totally prepared to deal with the media smears and defeat Bush on a landslide. Kerry has WAY too much baggage to deal with *'s smears and Kerry supporters even have to admit that there is a problem with Kerry.

First and foremost, if Kerry is nominated, we lose a D in the Democratic side of the Senate aisle while Mitt Romney appoints a crony.

Second, I wrote a post a few days ago on the Kerry vs. Bush debate. Still applies here.

Third, who wants a person that is trying to buy himself the presidency rather a president for the people? (See Kerrys mortgage)

Fourth, even you have to admit that Kerrys support is extremely soft and will abandon him once the nomination is set. How can Kerry maintain that support when he can't even inspire a toad?

Fifth, Kerry supporters should even admit that Kerry is copying Dean's signature and some of stump speeches to make himself look good and "liberal"?, while his donors are elitists?

Finally, once the Kerry supporters thinks kerry will be the nominee, Kerrys money will dry up and thus cannot afford more ads to beat Dean's constant ads on key primaries, thus making Kerry even weaker for *, and yet Dean far more stronger for *.

Which one would you pick? Give me Dean anytime.

[anti-NAFTA]

15. I'm a Dean supporter BUT

I think Kerry would be a more formidable foe for Smirk. Dean usually stumbles in debates. Kerry is a smooth-talker. Also, the media will use Dean's wife to smear Dean.

To top it off, Dean is honest about his proposals. That's a no-no. Cruz Bustamante's "Tough Love for California" (which was an unabashed tax-increase proposal) lost him the CA recall.

Am I alone here?

[ShaneGR]

18. Well, you're a rational Dean supporter

So maybe you are alone. Couldn't resist.

[anti-NAFTA]

20. LOL don't mention it pal

[lastknowngood]

17. The media hasn't even started on Kerry

when that starts he will be below O. J. simpson

[patricia92243]

21. Numbers don't lie!! Surely you jest.

[democratreformed]

25. Yep. Unfortunately, we have seen this yr. that many times the do. n/t

[dsc]

22. His numbers are worse than Mondale's at a simliar point

and Dean's are better than Clinton's were at a similar point.

[mlawson]

27. Mondale. Funny you should mention him.

I darkly fear that we are going to nominate another one this year. Once Gary Hart (Dean, Edwards or Clark) are out of the way, I wonder who will be our Geraldine Ferraro???

[ibegurpard]

26. A poll almost an entire year before the general election is proof

of nothing.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. As far as I'm concerned the numbers are 50 50.

I just don't see Bush's approval rating being overwhelmingly high at this point. The question is, can our candidate appeal to the center enough to get the swing votes and get the untapped resource of those who generally don't vote.

[spooky3]

30. It's a long way to November. But I like the trend.