Who Will be The Eventual Nominee

[NewHampster]

Will your candidate or mine get the nod or are we all perhaps just puppets in a bigger game?

Will Kerry or Dean or Clark or Edwards get a majority or will we go to the convention split and see a draft Hillary movement take control?


edited for spelling

[jmaier]

1. It's Clark, not Clarke

[Ivote]

3. Thanks

You beat me to it.

[NewHampster]

4. fixed, sorry

[jmaier]

8. No worries

I love your no flip flops image. I hate them also. In Chicago during the summers you can always hear that annoying sound walking up behind you on the streets -- slap, slap, slap ... Ugh!

[leyton]

2. Kerry's chances are the greatest...

Especially if he does really well this Tuesday. I think Hillary's out, even if it comes down to a Kerry and an anti-Kerry. Clark, Dean and Edwards are both vying to become the anti-Kerry, and I'd say Clark has the best shot at that, but ultimately Kerry will pull through.

[Pegleg Thd]

6. We were wanting Dean

But would have no problem with a Kerry/Clark ticket.

[Terwilliger]

5. kick

[Cuban_Liberal]

7. As weird as this year has been, I dunno.

Kerry is the current odds-on favorite, but he's also the 'flavor of the month', and that could change quickly.

I predict a long campaign.

[ochazuke]

10. It could be over on Tuesday

Because, the 'flavor of the month', if he wins all of Tuesday's states, will be the nominee and the flavor-of-the-month deal will be over. That's the reason I want to see Edwards and Clark win in most of these states -- we need to continue the campaign to pick the best candidate as well as to give him more campaign practice.

[mikehiggins]

13. How will he be the nominee, as opposed to flavor of the month?

He still won't have the delegates to win.

He won't even have all the delegates from all the states he does win.

There is no reason for Dean or Clark to drop out before Kerry wins the necessary number of delegates to win the nomination, if he does.

Kerry with 1500, Clark with 700 and Dean with 700 means it goes to the floor of the convention.

Once in that building the media loses all control over the process and the democrats make the final decision.

It ain't over until its over, and it ain't over yet.

[AntiCoup2K4]

16. Interesting scenario, Mike

...And if that happenned, with those numbers, I predict that Dean & Clark would mend fences, team up and easily get at least 101 Kerry delegates to cross over.

[AntiCoup2K4]

14. It's not over on Tuesday by a long shot.

If Kerry did win all of the Tuesday primaries, he would unquestionably be in the lead (which he is NOT at the moment, despite the media hype) but the majority of delegates are still yet to come. Kerry has not earned those delegates, and there's no way in Hell they are just going to be handed over to them because that's what the DLC wants.

And I don't believe he will win all of them either.

[Dookus]

9. as a firm clark supporter...

I voted Kerry. I think he's got the fabled "momentum", and he'll likely win at least 6 of tuesday's states, maybe all 7. At that point, he'll have 9 wins and 0 losses - hard for anybody to beat that.

[jmaier]

11. Kerry is the odds on favorite BUT

I think Wes Clark is going to do very well on Feb 3rd: at least one win and delegate gains in 4 states giving him some momentum behind Kerry. I think that he'll also win TN on Feb 10th and well positioned to make the race Kerry vs Clark. If Edwards & Lieberman fold, then it will be very interesting to see how Clark matches up more directly with Kerry.

It's not over unless Kerry pretty much sweeps Feb 3rd without any dominant 2nd place challenger emerging.

[onehandle]

12. Hillary is not running. Will not accept a draft.

She promised to serve her FULL TERM.

Period.

(and I've just changed my sig to reflect that FACT.)

[Terwilliger]

15. OK...the question was WHO WILL BE THE NOMINEE

Not "Who You Want To Be The Nominee"

[NewHampster]

18. If directed at me

I'm for Dean all the way. I just see a weird scenario unfolding.

[rogerashton]

17. The race is not to the swift,

and the frontrunner may not win the nomination, but that's the way the smart money bets.