Dean vs. Kerry -- a two man race?

[Bill McBlueState]

Glancing through the thread titles today, it seems like nearly all of them are either criticizing or supporting either Dean or Kerry. I know that the Dean campaign is trying to make this into a two-man race for the nomination. Are we beginning to see this?

I think unless Clark or Edwards does better than expected on Tuesday, it may be Kerry as front-runner and Dean as the major contender at least until March 2. (By "better than expected," I mean it probably won't be enough for Edwards to win SC by a small margin.)

I'd hate to see either Clark or Edwards go, but I'm not sure they have the mechanisms in place to survive beyond early February if they don't move up soon.

The two man scenario will certainly make things interesting in Western Massachusetts, where Kerry's support is weaker than in the Boston area.

[kentuck]

1. Maybe...if Kerry wins all seven states on Tuesday...

It could look like a brilliant move by Dean to move on to MI and WA. Dean would probably do much better in a two-man race than in a seven-man race...

[RobinA]

2. The Philadelphia Inquirer

has tracking polls for all the Tuesday states, and it looks to me like a one-man race. If I remember correctly, Clark's got OK by a slim margin, Edwards has SC by a couple points, Kerry is second or first everywhere, and Dean is pretty much not in the running.

[dorktv]

4. Dean is not out of the race by a mile.

We are still getting more Clark then Kerry in our walking and calling here at D HQ

[Bill McBlueState]

7. Dean and Feb. 3

The Dean campaign seems to be making expectations as low as possible for Tuesday, specifically because of what Robin A is saying.

I think Dean has until the March 2 primaries to emerge as a serious contender for the nomination.

(edited for clarity)

[Old and In the Way]

3. Personally, I think there's value in keeping as many in the race for

as long as possible.Much better to have multiple messages from Democrats attacking this administration and keeping the RNC attacks diffused.

If it gets down to Kerry vs. Dean, it will get nasty...if the posts on this board are any indication.

[Bill McBlueState]

5. true, but...

I agree that keeping the field as large as possible helps to confuse the Repub attack. But we have to settle on a nominee at some point, obviously. Are you saying it would be best to wait until the convention?

I'm not sure how I feel about this. A diversity of ideas is good, but I'm afraid of the effect a divisive convention will have on the eventual nominee.

[buckeye1]

11. I agree.

No faction of the party should feel "shut out". All views need to be heard. It helps unity. I like Clark,but I like ABB even better. We are a family that loves America. And just now America needs so many hugs.

[jfxgillis]

6. Game theoretically, it's now a two-player game but it's ...

.... Kerry vs. "Field" with Dean being the most potent aspect of the field's strategy.

And that is very much reflected in the posting phenomena you mention.

It's a seemingly small but critical distinction. IOW, if Dean proves strong enough to halt Kerry's momentum, which is quite plausible, Dean has no guarantees that he himself will be the beneficiary.

[arewethereyet]

8. wake up call: Dean no longer a major contender

you can't take off weeks at a time and be serious.

A little fiscal responsibility and perhaps you would be viable but we all know how that went...

[Bill McBlueState]

9. take off weeks at a time?

please explain...

[arewethereyet]

10. it was in all the papers his great new plan

he hunkers down and somehow emerges later on.

Yeah, I didn't pay much attention to it either as it was just plain silly.

[mbee]

12. The Democrats in the race should keep going as long as possible

so Bush will only learn at the last minute who the nominee will be! The earlier a Democrat emerges the faster the media can sink their teeth into them!

[arewethereyet]

14. now thats a really interesting idea

I'm not sure its possible but its a great strategy,

[DebJ]

13. Kerry seems to disagree with you, as he agreed to debate Dean 1-1

on MTP this morning.