Make your Wes Clark predictions for Feb 3rd

[jmaier]

I strongly support Clark but I suspect that he'll have one primary victory and several 2nd place finishes. In those 2nd place outcomes, he will have enough support to gain delegates. I don't necessarily agree with the specific percentages of polls like ARG and Zogy but I do believe they will probably call the order correctly at least for positions #1 & #2.

Here is my best guess:

OK - 1st (Clark, Kerry, Edwards)
AZ - 2nd but above 15% (Kerry, Clark, Dean)
NM - 2nd but above 15% (Kerry, Clark, Dean)
ND - 2nd but above 15% (Kerry, Clark, Dean)
SC - 3rd below 15% (Edwards, Kerry, Clark)
DE - 4th below 15% (Kerry, Dean, Lieberman, Clark)
MO - 3rd below 15% (Kerry, Edwards, Clark, Dean)

Clark supporters: make your best guess!

[OKNancy]

1. Your predictions are pretty close to mine

I think that there might be a slim chance he could get about 15% in Mo ( he has doubled his per cent in the last few days) , and maybe squeak by with 15% in SC.

[jmaier]

2. I don't have any read on MO

but I agree that there is some chance that a little polling booth surge at the last minute could put him above 15% in SC -- that would be sweet. :-)

[Quixote1818]

3. Good News For Clark check this out:

http://www.abqtrib.com/archives/news04/012404_news_caucus.shtml

Read the bottom of the page. They only expect around 48,000 people to vote in New Mexico and 27,000 requested absentee ballots. The number who voted absentee ended up being 24,000 and that was when Kerry was running at around 5% and Clark and Dean were leading. Our phone calling to absentee voters showed around 50% falling to Clark. Clark has a good chance to win in New Mexico and other states that had heavy absentee voting. Here in New Mexico it's become a news item because they know the absentee vote may determine who wins.

[jmaier]

5. Great article link

Thank you. I do find that heartening but I read somewhere that Gov Richardson indicated that 8,000 absentee ballots had actually been received out of the 27,000 requested -- though if you split those roughly 50% for clark, that is still 10% of the expected statewide voting total and a pretty good headstart.

[Quixote1818]

13. I was informed the total turned in was 24,000

[democratreformed]

7. This is encouraging

Thanks for this information.

[democratreformed]

4. I firmly believe that predictions are a jinx

That's why I never participate in these. I am hoping for the best though.

[Nashyra]

6. I predict

OK-1st
AZ-1st within 2pts Kerry
NM-2nd above 15%closer to Kerry within 3pts
ND-2nd above15
SC 3rd below 15 better than polls
MO 3rd no idea on pts
DE 4th no idea on pts

all in all enough to move forward comfortably, my guess Lieberman is out on this round and either Dean or Edwards out of the next round, my guess is that edwards will fall after the 10th Dean will get a resurgence @Wis,MI and we will have a Kerry/Clark/Dean race

[jmaier]

9. Interesting

I see Edwards winning in SC but not showing too well in the other races. If Clark should beat him in TN and finish ahead of him in VA on Feb 10th, Edwards has to leave the race. His rationale as the Southern candidate falls apart.

[democratreformed]

10. The campaign has asked me to go to TN next weekend

There is a Arkansas Democratic party campaign training class that weekend that my daughter and I were very interested in attending. I suppose that going to work in TN would be the more important of the two things right now. At least, that's the decision I think I have made. What do you think?

[jmaier]

12. I think that WINNING

in TN is absolutely crucial for this campaign. If he does well on Feb 3rd, TN is the next place that he looks competitive. Right now, MI and WI don't look too favorable. We need another win and a win in TN really knocks Edwards out in addition to providing more momentum for Wes Clark.

[kentuck]

8. I think he will come in 1st in AZ and NM and 2nd in OK....

I think he will come in 2nd, ahead of Kerry, in SC. ALso, he will finish 2nd in ND, but close to first.

[wndycty]

11. Don't be surprised by an upset in AZ. . .

. . .I came out here with the mission of helping Clark win. Clark has more grassroots support than Kerry which could easily impact him.

[TexasPatriot]

14. if he wins any states by less than a percentage point

will they announce he 'tied for first'?

if he loses those same states by less than a percentage point will they announce he 'lost'?

my guess? he wins NM and OK, a closer than expected 2nd in AZ (if not an outright upset)... and the press spends more time talking about Joe Lieberman.