Zogby Today: Kerry Competitive Across Most States. Dean in None.

[Raya]

Looks like Edwards’ is the one other likely to win. In SC he has a powerful on the ground organization and a big edge among Independents and cross-over Republicans who could turn out to the polls in numbers. Clark is strong in OK. Maybe Dean’s attacks on Kerry could give him a break.

Dean’s best State is AZ where he has 14%. He is in single digits everywhere else.

Dean supporters should really evaluate what $40 million and 5 times as much free media as any other candidate has produced, and why. The problem is surely not in the Dean campaign which has been admired by all.



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Excerpts



South Carolina

North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry are in a dead heat for first place . . . . . .

Jan 29-31% Jan 28-30 % Jan 27-29 %
Edwards 24 26 25
Kerry 23 22 24
Dean 8 9 9
Clark 8 8 8
Sharpton 7 6 5
Lieberman 4 4 5
Kucinich 1 0.1 0
Undecided 23 22 22
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding

Missouri

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a firm lead (43%) over other Democratic contenders, with two days to go before Missouri's February 3rd Democratic primary. ......


Jan 29-31 % Jan 28-30 % Jan 27-29 %
Kerry 43 46 45
Edwards 14 13 11
Dean 8 8 9
Lieberman 3 4 4
Clark 3 4 3
Sharpton 3 2 2
Kucinich 0.1 1 1
Undecided 22 21 20
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding

Oklahoma

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry moves into first place over retired General Wesley K. Clark, 25%-23%, Jan 29-31 % . . . .

Jan 28-30 % Jan 27-29 %
Kerry 25 22 19
Clark 23 25 27
Edwards 16 16 17
Dean 6 8 9
Lieberman 6 6 5
Kucinich 1 1 1
Sharpton 1 1 1
Undecided 22 21 23
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding

Arizona

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a steady lead (36%) over other Democratic contenders, with two days to go before Arizona's February 3rd Democratic primary.

......


Jan 29-31 % Jan 28-30 % Jan 27-29 %
Kerry 36 36 38
Clark 24 20 17
Dean 14 12 12
Lieberman 6 7 6
Edwards 4 6 6
Kucinich 3 3 2
Sharpton 0.1 0.1 1
Undecided 13 15 18
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding

[OKNancy]

1. ARG still has Clark ahead

in Oklahoma
new today http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[chimpymustgo]

2. CNN give Edwards a 12 point lead in SC.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/

[jenk]

4. zogby always keeps it close

look at NH, Iowa. He had dean within the margin of error in NH and he ended up losing by 13.

[Raya]

5. Must be using a different methodolgy. Repub can vote in SC

And Edwards get almost all Repubs. They may include sample from Repub list (as well as Dem and Indies) in polling -- may be better method.

[Raya]

3. Hope he wins. He is a good clean competitor.

[Sensitivity]

6. Dean can fight Kerry without spending now. Wait till Wisconsin

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. What's the strategy for WI?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Let's say Clark wins OK and Edwards wins SC

where can they go on to win after that?

[Sensitivity]

8. Think Clark may still have money and a national organization

Anyone know how much money Clark has left.

[Nicholas_J]

9. Well the good point to me is simply

That Dean is not looking well in any of them, And in Missouri, Edwards is in second, although a distant second, to Kerry.

Zogby has Kerry in forst place everywhere but South Carolina, and in this poll he is neck and neck with Edwards.
ARG

Arizona:

Likely Democratic
primary voters Dec Jan 25 Jan 31

Wesley Clark 21%
Howard Dean 10%
John Edwards 11%
John Kerry 32%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 9%
Al Sharpton 0%
Undecided 16%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/az/

Carol Moseley Braun 1% NI NI
Wesley Clark 25%
Howard Dean 8%
John Edwards 18%
John Kerry 23%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 8%
Al Sharpton 1%
Undecided 16%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ok/

South Carolina

Likely Democratic
primary voters

Wesley Clark 12%
Howard Dean 9%
John Edwards 30%
John Kerry 23%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 3%
Al Sharpton 10%
Undecided 12%


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/sc/


Delaware

Likely Democratic
primary voters Jan 29

Wesley Clark 8%
Howard Dean 14%
John Edwards 9%
John Kerry 27%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 16%
Al Sharpton 1%
Undecided 24

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/de/

Missouri

Likely Democratic
primary voters Jan 29

Wesley Clark 6%
Howard Dean 7%
John Edwards 15%
John Kerry 46%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 3%
Al Sharpton 1%
Uncommitted vote 6%
Undecided 15%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/mo/

I am noting that from the previous results, that ARG has been really far more accurate than Zogby was until the last day in New Hampshire. It looks like Zogby has been resting on the laurels he earned in his prediction on the popular vote during 2000, but Zogby has not been in the polling game very long, having only started in 1999.

ARG had some bad press in 2000 because of its predictions and along with other pollsters, has really been tightening up its act and trying to make sure as little bias as possible slips into its polls.

The current polls pretty much hae tuesday sewed up for Kerry and it looks like Dean may not pick up even one delegate unless he can go up one point in Delaware, which really does not seem likely.

What seems to be happening is that each Kerry win seems to propel him into even more wins prohjrcted for the next round of primaries. If he does antywhere near as well as the current polls are predicting on tuesday, his polls for the primaries in March will go even furtther which means thqat nothing will keep him from taking other sttes like Michigan and then Calfornia.

Not that I would at all object to a Clark win. The only candidate I have completely objected to from within weeks of entering the campaign has been Dean. I still object to him, even more now, as he simply is playing more and more negative in my opinion. I am really hoping for a totally crushing defeat for Dean wherever he runs.

Anyone else winning the nomination would be completely acceptable to me, but I am very glad to see that the candidate I supported from the day he entered the race is doing very well. I am not gloating, over any of the other cnadidates, as I have great respect for all but one, but I am quite happy for my candidate, as well as seeing Clark and the others doing so much better than they were extected to do.

[sandnsea]

10. Actually, Dean has no credibility

I saw an article posted here earlier that the people in MO are highly pissed at Dean for what he did to Gephardt. I'd bet that carries across the midwest. And he's said so many crazy things, most people just aren't going to listen to him anymore. I'm going to go have dinner now!!!

[Guaranteed]

11. They should do a poll asking if people know how Kerry voted on the IWR.

Wonder how that would turn out.

[DemBones DemBones]

14. I think people know how Kerry voted,

and if they've looked into it, they know Dean supported Biden-Lugar, and supports the occupation/ continued war.

It's not easy to glean from television news, but they might even know that Dennis Kucinich is the candidate who has consistently opposed both the war and the occupation.

[maxr4clark]

12. Z O G B Y i s n o t r e l i a b l e ! ! !

He chooses to sample different parts of the population more or less than they represent, based on HIS OPINIONS of "what is going on on the ground". This kind of polling is NOT random and will not give results consistent with a vote.

He also doesn't use random-dialling, which means any unlisted number is excluded from his sample. How many of you have unlisted numbers? His method is cheaper, but not accurate.

Don't base your opinions on Zogby polls.

[ShaneGR]

13. Is that why their NH polling was DEAD on??

Seriously, it was within 2 percentage points.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

23. Agreed that his results have always been pretty close to actual results

or within the margin of error. He must be doing something right.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. Psst. Zogby is on crack

HEAVY CRACK.

Dean will place all 7 states within the 15% threshold while Clark, Kerry and Edwards bite their heads off. Dean is much wiser to go for the 2/7 states which is more delegate rich instead of going after small immaterial states that will give !0% of the total delegates so far. Once Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Sharpton (for crying out loud, just quit already) and Kucinich drop put and anoint Kerry as the frontrunner, the ride for Kerry endeth, because Dean vs. Kerry will give Dean the win EVERY TIME!

Hawkeye-X

[THUNDER HANDS]

16. just keep telling yourself that

I'll happily disagree. :)

[John_H]

18. Zogby's a Kerry partisan, and an inaccurate one at that

In addition to underpolling Clark by 60 percent in NH, he said:

"A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message,"

However true that statement may be, there's a guy who's sucking up to a potential client. Big time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic...

[Raya]

19. Is He Repub. Or is that some other polster?

[John_H]

22. He works both sides. He seems to be more of a Dem lately.

[Nederland]

25. Zogby has always been a Democrat

He even ran for mayor once as a Democrat.

[Eric J in MN]

20. free media=distortions

The media will hurt Kerry just like they hurt Dean by distorting what Kerry says next.

[arewethereyet]

21. hes taking off, remember ? these don't matter

and there IS that money thing.

He's just letting more bats or gloves or whatever fill up by happy Deaniacs champing at the bit to send him money.

[tryanhas]

24. FOR THE LAST FREAKING TIME!!!

ANY SOUTH CAROLINA POLL THAT HAS AL SHARPTON BELOW 10% IS A JOKE!!!

PERIOD!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. Based on what?