Missteps Pulled a Surging Dean Back to Earth (NY Times)

[chimpymustgo]

By JODI WILGORENand JIM RUTENBERG

Published: February 1, 2004


-snip-

Dr. Dean, whose remarkable ascent from asterisk to leader in the polls dominated the campaign for much of last year, may yet mount a formidable challenge for the nomination, with the new campaign chief's strategy based on larger, later-voting states. But as Democrats weigh the slide of Dr. Dean, the former Vermont governor, from likely nominee back to long shot, they say his unraveling had its origins in a mix of mistakes as well as in the unavoidable difficulties of life as a front-runner in a crowded field.

Endorsements from the establishment muddled his outsider's message. The campaign failed to respond consistently to intensifying attacks, just as people began to tune in. The feuding Vermont- and Washington-based factions in the staff never reached détente. The candidate himself kept giving his opponents ammunition with his words.

-snip-

"He was made into a rock star, which he wasn't," Ms. O'Connor said. "It became more about the crowds than about Howard. Because the expectations were so high for us, we almost had nowhere to go but where we are right now."

-snip-


Throughout the fall, Dr. Dean led in polls, donations and press attention, and wore a target on his back at every debate. But he also appeared to wear a Teflon coat. His rivals' efforts to point out that he had changed his position on trade, Medicare and gun control seemed overshadowed by the resonance of his anti-Washington message and a seemingly endless ability to refuel with Internet donations. Dr. Dean also got through a controversy over remarks about the Confederate flag with an apology and an attention-getting online vote of supporters about whether to opt out of the public campaign finance system.

"I think the governor was almost ill-served by the loyalty of his core supporters," said Paul Begala, the liberal co-host of "Crossfire" on CNN. Mr Begala said the continued flow of money into the campaign despite early mistakes had allowed Dr. Dean to believe that "the laws of political physics have been repealed" for him.

-snip-


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/01/politics/campaign/01DEAN.html

********

This is an excellent, well-reported article on the the rise and fall of the Dean campaign. Good behind the scenes reporting and analysis of the campaign, the momentum, the money. Fascinating read.

[vi5]

1. I'm glad I read that article.....

It says a lot of things that I had thought and guessed about what was going on and what happened. And a lot of the quotes came from Dean supporters and insiders admitting that there were a few mis-steps or miscalculations. You don't get a lot of that honesty and self-examination on this board so it's good to know it does exist.

[fishnfla]

13. Did Dean really dis the Iowa caucuses as described?

Thats news to me. i will check the archives to see that discussion

[dsc]

2. Of course the press is blameless

as they always are when the press decides who is to blame. I must say though, anyone who reads that and still believes Kerry won on message is out to lunch.

[adadem]

4. I do agree that the press

overplayed the "scream" a bit much, I also believe that it would have been overplayed if it had been any Democratic candidate who had done it or a similar thing.

The press was pretty darn good to Dr. Dean when he was the frontrunner throughout late summer and fall while it predicted doom for Sen. Kerry over the others. For the longest time Kerry was the one expected to drop out first. You can't put all the blame on the press.

[dsc]

9. Would they have?

Not according to the press a Washington Post editorial as quoted by the Daily Howler.

But Moody hardly stands alone in his hopeless assessment of the press corps’ conduct. Indeed, the corps’ flogging of Dean’s concession speech has produced one useful result; it has led some scribes to pen revealing accounts of their own cohort’s conduct. For our money, the most revealing assessment came in an editorial in last Saturday’s Washington Post. “he speech itself was not as bad as the reaction to it would suggest,” the Post said. “One could imagine Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) giving a similar war whoop and not sustaining anything like the damage that has accrued to Mr. Dean.” So why was Candidate Dean hammered hard, when Candidate Kerry, after such a war whoop, “might well have been congratulated for shedding his aloof image?” According to the Post, “he speech has caused such big trouble for Mr. Dean because it so graphically evoked already-present worries about the candidate’s temperament.” The editors reviewed other press frenzies, fleshing out the point they had made:

Again, this is the press itself saying that had Kerry done this it would have been played quite differently. Of course they didn't admit that the tape was a lie (gee I am shocked) but at least they admit that they wouldn't have done this to Kerry. Seems the people who actually do this don't agree with you.

http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh012904.shtml

[emulatorloo]

6. Kerry won me on message in Iowa

I spent a long time deciding between Dean and Kerry, w much firsthand research. I am as skeptical of the media as they come.

I see you in a lot of these threads, and you seem like a thoughful person. I wish you would not insult me.

[dsc]

7. Read the article

according to it Dean lost 10 points, overnight, after the tapes of him dissing the caucuses came out. You are less than 1/1000 of one percent of Iowa. That swing was 10,000 times yours. Those aren't mutually exclusive.

[joshcryer]

8. ::waves:: Well said. :)

:)

[Eloriel]

15. Oh, but he did win on message -- Dean's

Plus a lot of dirty tricks and dirty politics, of course.

[displacedtexan]

3. Thanks for the highly educational post!

"I think the governor was almost ill-served by the loyalty of his core supporters," said Paul Begala, the liberal co-host of "Crossfire" on CNN. Mr Begala said the continued flow of money into the campaign despite early mistakes had allowed Dr. Dean to believe that "the laws of political physics have been repealed" for him.

An early sign that the ground had shifted under Dr. Dean came on Dec. 1, when he was asked on both "Good Morning America" on ABC and "Hardball" on MSNBC why he sealed more than half his records as governor for a decade, longer than his predecessors. Dr. Dean dismissed the issue nearly a year earlier, telling Vermont Public Radio, "we didn't want anything embarrassing appearing in the papers at a critical time for a future endeavor," and swatted it away again when newspapers inquired in the summer.

But now the issue would not die.

********************************
If Begala thinks you're done, you're probably done.

[vi5]

5. You could see that on here day in and day out....

Whenever there was some high profile attack on Dean people would be on here saying "That's it! I'm going to send him another $100!!!!" Not...Hmmm...how can we maybe not make that mistake next time. The whole thing led to a perception of invincibility that argue all you like, even the media bought into. There's no denying the energy of the campaign and the good it did to this primary race. But to deny that some of the approaches used were gross miscalculations is not being honest.

[Eloriel]

16. Begala is hardly an objective bystander

He's been actively campaigning against Dean for a very long time now. He doesn't want Dean to hand power back to The People, or make big changes in the Party, any more than his old boss does.

[WilliamPitt]

10. The last two sentences are the most important

[joshcryer]

11. Agreed. Win or lose.

That's what's most important to me. ABB all the way!

[chimpymustgo]

12. Dean brought a lot of positives to this campaign.

I'm sorry to see the desperation he is showing right now. If he chooses to stay in the race, I hope he won't continue the attacks.

[fishnfla]

14. On page one or page two?

with tongue in cheek, as both page endings resonate