Kerry's SC chances depend on continuing to win over black undecideds

[DJcairo]

Edwards has increased his support among white voters by 16 percentage points in the past week. Of that group, 87% view Edwards and Kerry favorably. Kerry has increased his support among white voters by 3 percentage points in the past week and has increased his support among black voters by 9 percentage points in the past week. Al Sharpton has lost support 5 percentage points of white voters and 4 percentage points among black voters in the past week.



Ballot Overall White (59%) Black (41%)

Clark 12% 15% 7%
Dean 9% 9% 9%
Edwards 30% 38% 18%
Kerry 23% 22% 23%
Kucinich 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 3% 5% 0%
Sharpton 10% 1% 23%
Undecided 12% 9% 19%


My analysis: Edwards clearly has an advantage with white SC voters. This is to be expected. He's the native son. Judging by Kerry's new TV ads featuring an African-American crew mate from Vietnam and by these numbers I'd say that the Kerry people are making what looks like a successful play for black undecided voters. He currently has a 5 point advantage over Edwards with black voters - same as Sharpton. If Sharpton continues to lose black voters support and more and more of the black undecided voters go to Kerry he could pull even with Edwards or possibly even win. Kerry is apparently spending a butt load on TV ads in the state and his ads have been very effective in Iowa and NH where late breaking undecideds overwhelmingly went for Kerry.

[Nazgul35]

1. hope they don't find out about his

comments back in 1991 re: afirmative action....