Early Feb 3 predictions

[adamrsilva]

Now I'm not a Kerry supporter, in fact, I don't really like him, but honestly I think he's gonna win all seven states. He's solid in 5, and while Clark and Edwards lead in OK and SC, they have so many undecideds Kerry could easily take it. He's certainly got the momentum.

[On the Road]

1. On the Other Hand,

You could argue that the polls in the Feb 3 states include some soft front-runner sentiment that is not likely to translate into actual votes.

On Edit: Just from the poll-to-actuals so far. We'll find out if it's the front-runner position, just Dean, or something else.

[MurikanDemocrat]

2. I'd like to see Clark and Edwards take a few states just to keep

things exciting. I don't have anything against Kerry but I'd like to see some competition in play for a while even if he does end up with the eventual nomination.

[knight_of_the_star]

3. Here's mine

Based on a series of polls, it seems likely that Clark will nail Arizona and Oklahoma while Edwards takes South Carolina and things really start to get rocky in time for the next primary.

[DJcairo]

4. Show me a poll wqith Clark leading in AZ

He's down by double digits in Zogby in AZ and 7 points down in LA Times. Unlike Edwards, Clark is on the down trend. The only guys moving right now are Kerry-Edwards and Edwards only in SC. The rest of this nomination party is dead in the water and/or sinking fast.

[knight_of_the_star]

6. Don't count him out just yet

A lot can happen in two days.

[Quixote1818]

7. This News Paper Says Clark is Leading In AZ

But it dosent actually show the poll http://www.dailynews-sun.com/

[frustrated_lefty]

5. Kerry has 4, Clark and Edwards get the other 3. (eom)

[Quixote1818]

8. New Mexico could go Clark as well

[mikehiggins]

9. And if he doesn't? What then? Is his campaign DOA?

This is now wholesale politics, Adam. The deal now is to win delegates. In the past, when everything was winner take all like in the Electoral College, the math was easier. Now, however, two or even three candidates can pick up delegates depending on the number of votes they get. A close second might get one or two less than the winner, but over time a candidate who stays in the running has a chance to pick up enough delegates to win, even if he doesn't have a long list of states he actually won.

Kerry has to keep winning big to keep up his totals AND to continue the storyline of momentum. If he stumbles to any degree on Feb 3 he can easily find himself in trouble immediately after that.

With three opponents in Dean, Clark and Edwards it's likely Kerry will not be able to win in the field and it will go to the convention.

All the efforts of the media to pick our nominee for us will come to nothing when the gavel goes down in Boston.

I like that thought.