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Dean Supporters -- Neel lays out the strategy ....2 man race/people decide

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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:33 AM
Original message
Dean Supporters -- Neel lays out the strategy ....2 man race/people decide
http://www.blogforamerica.com/
snip

Regardless of who takes first place in these states, we think that after Wisconsin we’ll get Kerry in the open field. Remember one crucial thing about the 2004 calendar—in previous years a front-runner or presumptive nominee would typically emerge after most of the states had voted and most of the delegates had been chosen. The final competitor to that candidate, even if he won late states, as many have done, has not been able to win a majority of delegates under any scenario.

This year is very different. The media and the party insiders will attempt to declare Kerry the winner on February 3 after fewer than 10% of the state delegates have been chosen. At that point Kerry himself will probably have claimed fewer than one third of the delegates he needs to win. They would like the campaign to be over before the voters of California, New York, Texas and nearly every other big state have spoken.

Democrats in Florida, who witnessed a perversion of democracy in November 2000, will not have a choice concerning the nominee if the media and the party insiders have their way.

We intend to make this campaign a choice. We alone of the remaining challengers to John Kerry are geared to the long haul—we’ve raised nearly $2 million in the week after Iowa, over $600,000 in the 48 hours since New Hampshire. No candidate—not even Kerry, who mortgaged his house and tapped his personal fortune to funnel $7 million into his campaign —will have sufficient funds to advertise in all, or even most, of the big states that fall on March 2 and beyond. At that point paid advertising becomes much less of a factor.

And we alone of the remaining challengers offer a clear choice to Kerry. Howard Dean is no Johnny Come Lately to the message of change—he has actually delivered change in Vermont. Howard Dean has the courage and conviction to stand up for what’s right, even when it’s not politically popular, as opposed to the cautiousness, compromise and convenience that has characterized John Kerry’s 19 years in the Senate.

We believe that when the voters of the post-Wisconsin states—which constitute 75% of the delegates that will be chosen in the states—compare Howard Dean and John Kerry, they will conclude that Dean, not Kerry, has the best chance to beat George Bush, because only Dean offers a clear vision of change and a record of results that contrasts against the rhetoric emanating from Washington. We believe they will increasingly reject the rubber stamp presented to them by the media.

Has such a strategy ever worked before?

No. It's never been tried.

But prior to this year, no candidate had ever raised $46 million dollars, mostly from ordinary Americans giving $100 each. Prior to this year no candidate for President had ever inspired the kind of grass-roots activity that has been this campaign’s hallmark. Prior to this year no candidate for President had so clearly revitalized his party, allowed it to reclaim its voice, and shifted the agenda so clearly to a call for change.

Let the conventional wisdom and the media declare this race over. We’re going to let the people decide.

Roy Neel
Chief Executive Officer
Dean for America

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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. isn't this kinda like
Edited on Sat Jan-31-04 10:04 AM by Magic Rat
starting a marathon, then taking a cab to the middle of the race, getting out and running the last half of it?
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. nope, you mispelled marathon
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. thank you
:D
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
18. And you misspelled "misspelled"
meet the petard
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Thats why I don't never say anything about no ones spelling n/t
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. this whole "dem primary" has been filled with "surprises"..why stop
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patricia92243 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Sounds like a sure win to me.
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. we on DU talked about this as a strategy ... it makes sense "if"
we can get wisc / wash....and then a month to "focus on differences" with other candidates..or combination with other candidates...

the fire and the drive is still there....
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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #1
14. It's more like running a race and being sideswiped by a (media) car.
Got to pick yourself up, heal a few bruises, and get back in the race. This time it will be a one on one, where the media will not be able to protect Kerry.
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Yeah, but how can you sit there with a straight face and say
That you're gonna "let the people decide" when you conveiently overlook the people who chose John Kerry twice, or the people who will choose John Edwards or Wesley Clark in the February states?

Hoping Howard Dean can pick up one state, late in the game, isn't letting the people decide. It's playing off of 'buyers remorse' that people will suddenly sour on Kerry and then Dean will be the only alternative.

Hope not Fear, my ass.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
19. That is a brilliant analogy
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EXE619K Donating Member (717 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
2. Sometimes....
Dis-information is the best strategy.
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
3. who knows what goes on behind the scenes...with Clark, DK, Rev Al
the point is...they plan to keep on the attack...and the more the people hear Dean and all the cnadidates "rip bush"...the better
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
8. What a foolish strategy
Edited on Sat Jan-31-04 10:05 AM by zulchzulu
Dean will have zero momentum and will be firmly trounced on Super Tuesday. The races between now and then will show that he doesn't have the votes. Many states won't have him even in double-digits with vote percentages.

How he'll be able to somehow then think that his pitiful performance in these states wll somehow transfer into voters liking him on Super Tuesday is pure folly. It's like Lieberman thinking he was tied for third in New Hampshire when he was fifth. It's either blind arrogance or hallucinatory enablement.

Trippi's idea of frontloading the Dean campaign with tons of money in Iowa and New Hampshire backfired monumentally. Now Neel's delusionary strategy will put the Dean campaign filed in the footnotes of history.
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ibegurpard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Thanks!
You just inspired me to go hit the bat! :hi:
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Good luck! n/t
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. I am starting to think that Neel is just the ball holder for the kicker
I suspect that if Dean can't get a win by next Saturday in Michigan Gore and Dean are going to have a long talk.

Don

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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
13. This is a Move of Necessity and Desperation
Edited on Sat Jan-31-04 11:18 AM by ribofunk
Dean is holding a poor hand at the moment. He was killed in Iowa and NH not because he placed second and third, but because expectations were so high.

Dean IS contesting all seven states, but he doesn't have the money for big media buys and he knows he can't win them. (Maybe he IS trying to win DE or NM on the sly.)

The smart thing about this move is it downplays expectations. Everyone thinks Dean is dead now. Maybe he is. But if Dean does moderately well, he will beat expectations and regain some momentum.

All these things put together don't even come close to beating Kerry with his current momentum. There is no strategy for Dean which would do that. It depends on Kerry faltering or being wounded, and Dean getting another look from voters.

A lot of campaigns might simply redouble their efforts until they flame out. The odds are not that good for Dean, but his new strategy does allow him to come back if given the opportunity. It's making a virtue of a necessity.




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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. I think you are right. Only Kerry can beat Kerry right now n/t
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Tim_in_HK Donating Member (544 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
15. What the hell . . .
If he can pull it off, it would be very interesting to see. I'm not a Dean supporter, but good luck!

This whole front-loaded primary has me pretty pissed off.
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bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. yes - it seems that this year - if any year...
may actually go all the way and depend on all of the states to vote.

That would be nice.
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