It's All About Electability: To win, Dean needs a discredited incumbent

[wyldwolf]

*This is from the The Atlantic, part of the National Review. I've seen two threads locked in the past because this source is/was considered by some to be "rightwing." Regardless, it is an editorial - one man's opinion.

... Dean said in a television interview in July. "The way to beat him (Bush) is to go out there and build a huge group of people who haven't been involved in politics before." That's movement politics. It's the opposite of coalition politics, the tried-and-true approach that usually prevails. Barry Goldwater was a movement politician. So was George McGovern. Like Dean, they relied on energizing a "hidden majority" of voters by offering them what Goldwater famously called "a choice, not an echo."

--snip ---

Thus, the conventional wisdom about Dean: He's a sure loser. "I have spent a lot of time talking to Republican pollsters, privately and on a background basis, and saying, 'Is there any of the major Democratic candidates who would be easier to beat than Howard Dean?'" columnist David Brooks reports. "They all say, 'No. Dean's the easiest to beat.' "

--snip ---

Consider this piece of evidence: New Hampshire voters know Howard Dean. He's been campaigning there for months, and he governed the state next door. Moreover, Dean has a wide lead among New Hampshire Democrats. But look at what happens when you ask a sample of New Hampshire voters how they would vote, given the choice between Bush and Dean: Bush 57 percent, Dean 30 percent, in a poll taken this month by the American Research Group.

--snip ---

Dean would not be an easy candidate to elect. But neither was Ronald Reagan—a movement candidate who won. To elect Dean, one thing is necessary: a discredited incumbent. Like Jimmy Carter in 1980. And Bush's father in 1992. Both years, supposedly unelectable candidates—Reagan and Bill Clinton—got elected. George W. Bush, who's basking in the capture of Saddam Hussein, is not in that kind of trouble. At least not now.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/schneider2003-12-23.htm

So, if Dean is to be the man (or for that matter Clark, Kerry, etc. if we are to believe the polls), we must double - triple - our efforts to bring Bush down a notch or two.

[vi5]

1. Yeah, good luck with that....

Nothing seems to stick, and people hate attack politics. So what is the solution.

Search me, brother. I don't know. But I do know I'm not optimistic.

[Northwind]

7. wtf?

Where do you get this idea that people hate attack politics? I often see people here claim that "people" do not like "negativity" in politics. If that is so, why does the guy that runs the dirtiest campaign usually win?

[bearfartinthewoods]

9. i don't get it...the author lists goldwater and McGovern as successes?

what am i missing? that they had some success in the primaries but lost anyway?

[bearfartinthewoods]

10. may i also add perot to the list.....

or "succesful" grass roots campaigns

[markus]

22. They won their nominations n/t

eom

[SheilaT]

2. There's more than one key to winning

next November. First and foremost we must do what we can to insure a free, fair, and honest election. Which means no black box voting without a paper trail. No scrubbing of voter rolls by firms in the pocket of certain vested (Republican) interests. No manipulating of the final tally and thus the electoral slate vote, by which I mean we need to hope a Republican state legislature doesn't certify the Republican electors regardless of the popular vote in that state.

The campaign on the part of the Democratic nominee needs to be focused on what Bush & Co have wrought upon this country since January 20, 2001. The intelligence failure (if that's what it was) of Sept 11, 2001 needs to be openly discussed, as well as the distinct possibility they knew something was going to happen and let it happen anyway. The staggering loss of jobs -- the fact that George W Bush is the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over a net loss of jobs during his term. Along with that, the economic failures of Republican administrations overall needs to be stressed.

The loss of security, the loss of pension plans, personal savings, the diminishing quality of schools, the lack of universal health care. Probably every single one of us here has a story to tell about one of these things. Here's mine: I have a brother who undergoes kidney dialysis and will hopefully get a kidney transplant someday. Right now Medicare pays for his dialysis. But once he has the transplant he's on his own to pay for the many drugs he'll need, which will exceed his monthly income by at least $500. At least. That's every penny spent on drugs and not one cent for food, utilities, and so on. (Fortunately he lives in a small condominium which is paid off.)

Depending on who the nominee is, the specifics of the campaign will vary, but none of the top four (Clark, Dean, Gephardt, or Kerry)is simply unelectable. They could run bad campaigns. They could get blindsided by unexpected events before election day. They could turn out to have something in their past which hurts them among voters.

We also can't lose sight of the fact that no matter who the nominee, this will be a spectacularly dirty campaign. The nominee's patriotism will be in question, and that will apply very much to Clark, the military man who could be portrayed as abandoning his ideals to run against Our Beloved Leader. Indeed, all opposition to Bush's re-election will be seen as treason.

Personally, as a Dean supporter, I think the way to win is exactly what Dean is doing now. But as I said above, I don't believe that makes him the only electable candidate.

[KittyWampus]

15. Beating Diebold Requires: Polling at 55% Consistently

so the Media & Junior can't pull the "too close to call" card.

Also, someone who can solidly pull in Military votes so that if they are relying on Absentee votes it won't be "certain" that they'll fall in Junior's favor.

Please note I put "certain" in quotation marks.

Anyone who is honest will admit that Service People are PERCIEVED to be rightwingers... the GOP assumes their support is theirs and the Media tacitly goes along with this.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[RetroLounge]

6. "but are you on talking-points crack?"

Dude! I spit my Mountain Dew all over the keyboard!

ROTFLMAO!

:hi:

[KittyWampus]

16. Mountain Dew In The MORNING?

:wow:

Anyway, talking points crack is a funny crack but kind of insulting.... especially since the poster didn't write the piece.

Note- you didn't bother to rebute.

[Cheswick2.0]

8. talking points crack....... great line!

I think the original poster was just reporting what is being said by some infotainment bimbo, but your line is priceless. Mind if I steal it to use against republicans?

I agree that bush is easily discredited. The infotainment industry just hasn't caught on yet.

[wyldwolf]

11. Why would you attack the me for this?

If you disagree with the article, fine.

But attack the author, then.

[rucky]

18. My apologies

I did attack the wrong person. I promise never to post before my morning coffee ever again.

:spank:

[rucky]

19. Or Maybe I should switch to Mountain Dew

:beer:

[Cheswick2.0]

4. conventional wisdom is almost always wrong

People make these statements based on what happened in the past. It seems incredibly short sighted to me. If you look at the electoral maps over the last 40 years you see that almost every year there were major changes in how states voted. History never repeats itself, when are people going to wake up to that fact?

[bearfartinthewoods]

13. those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them

[cavebat2000]

5. There was a program on the Diane Rehm Show...

You should listen to it. http://www.wamu.org/ram/2003/r1031201.ram
It discusess the issue of electability. If I remember correctly they completely debunk the McGovern and Goldwater complex that so many poeple pin on him.

Sure they are movement politics, but what you should really understand is that Goldwater and McGovern didn't have the same highly organized campaign as Howard Dean. That makes a HUGE difference. The Dean Machine is truely a real thing. I never heard of a Goldwater or McGovern Machine. It is this ordinary citizen campaign that I love... as when it comes time for relection, Dean will have to respond to the people that elected him, not the 283 or so pioneers that gave him 200k a peice.

[LiberalBushFan]

12. Bush 57 Dean 30 percent doesn't matter to Dean supporters

They'll take anecdotal evidence over that anyday. "but, but my cousin and my dad say they'll vote for Dean!" Polls only matter when someone else is doing worse.

[bearfartinthewoods]

14. yes..they brag about dean's 20 point lead in NH but dismiss this 20 pts

as anecdotal.

here is some anecdotal info for them..my life long dem, brother-in-law and his wife are adamant that they will NOT vote to raise their own taxes.

[dsc]

20. Care to sight Clark's numbers

or God forbid a link so I find them if you won't post them.

[HFishbine]

17. Bringing Bush down a notch or two

Shouldn't be that hard. Surely, we're all for that.

[John_H]

21. This is a one issue race. Are we going to be on the correct political side

or the wrong political side. Dean and Clark are both on the moral side. Clark can pull it off politically. Dean cannot. No matter how many of these convoluted stretch armstrong arguments are made, that fact is as simple as it gets.

[ibegurpard]

23. That's not a fact; it's an opinion

n/t