Iowa Poll - head-to-head v Bush, Gep best, Edwards 2nd, Kerry & Dean 3rd

[AP]

http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1576348&nav=2HABJqKz

"Des Moines, December 23, 2003 - ...

Our Survey USA-Iowa polls have shown Howard Dean with a substantial lead over the other democratic hopefuls. But tonight a different question, posed to a broader group, has produced different results.

Our latest Survey USA poll examines head-to-head match ups between democratic hopefuls and President Bush.

Dick Gephardt does the best among the democrats--losing by only 7 points. John Edwards comes in second trailing Bush by 11 points.

And Howard Dean and John Kerry both trail by 12 points. ...

(Polls all voters, not just likely Dem caucus goers.)

[chimpymustgo]

1. Thanks for posting AP. I hope Dems will pick the best guy to take on *.

Winning is critical. Essential.

[maddezmom]

2. Gep must be pulling Independent and repugs votes.

polls always make things more confusing.

[bearfartinthewoods]

5. but isn't pulling in independents and pubbies the name of the game?

[maddezmom]

7. was that question to me?

if it was, here is my answer: critical maybe if you consider questioning critical but never have bashed or attacked him. I try to remain positive about all our candidates. :)

edited to answer the 1st question: yes that is the name of the game, have to get more than the base to win.

[JVS]

11. I used your map

We need Ohio. That will win it. Just as a buffer we should also go after West Virginia, a place where Dean's NRA rating should help and we should also try to get New Hampshire to join its Northeaster neighbors in our column if we do that we win 284-254

[Bombtrack]

3. I doubt even close to a majority knew Gep and Dean's tax positions

and I also bet that Gep, Dean, and Kerry had much higher name recognition than Edwards, which inflated there numbers.

[bearfartinthewoods]

12. which makes Edwards higher rating even more impressive.

since fewer people "know" him yet such a high percentage of those that do support him.....

[adadem]

4. Similar polling

for some time now has shown similar results...in a head to head match up with shrub...either Clark, Kerry or Gephardt.

[bearfartinthewoods]

6. but there is a new face in this crowd..EDWARDS!!!!

[Bombtrack]

10. we don't need to win "the south" but we need it to be competative

look at these regions
http://www.massinc.org/Commonwealth/new_map_exclusive/ten_regions_index.html


Bush has no natural way to break into our strongholds, the upper coasts and northeast corridor(unless Guliani, Rice, or Powell becomes his vp)

However with a southern/religious/middle american/american dream type candidate we can break into places like the southern lowlands, as Clinton and Carter, and to a lesser extent Gore did. Remember Gore/LIEBERMAN should have and probably did win Florida, and many people in the black and alternative media say Tennessee as well http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=10589

with a Clark-Graham ticket we have our best chance at winning the most democratic southern states. Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida.

In 2008, Clarks likely attourney general Edwards, could become his runningmate, and they could try for a by then more democratic Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia.

[AP]

14. Graham's health problems would be a liability. Furthermore, his FL...

...favorability numbers started to tank when the voters started hearing a guy whom they didn't think they elected. They thought he was very conservative whent they voted for him and didn't like the change.

Clark...well, if Clark got the nomination, Bush will pull out of Iraq, turn it over to the UN, and win reelection when people wonder why the Dems nominated someone because of Iraq.

I'll stick with Edwards to win the whole thing.

[farmbo]

8. Link?

EOM

[Jerseycoa]

9. Not on their site yet

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[dsc]

13. It would have been nice if they gave us an MOE

but assuming it is 3% which is the lowest I have ever seen, they are all tied in regards to a margin against Bush. Further Edwards has a one point 'lead' the words give me a break come to mind. Gephardt has a little something to crow about here, no one else does.

[ECH]

15. You guys are forgetting the Clark vs Bush numbers

"Wesley Clark trails President Bush right now, 59 to 35 percent. Howard Dean versus Bush results in 54 percent of registered Iowa voters supporting the president and 42 percent support for Dean."

http://www.ksdk.com/news/news_article_lc.asp?storyid=52222

[BootinUp]

16. Are you forgetting he isn't campaigning in Iowa now? e/o/m

[goobergunch]

17. Iowa is a swing state for the general election

Clark's failure to campaign in Iowa may be a liability against Bush IMHO.