In a nutshell --- Why Dean is ahead in primary but will lose against *

[bearfartinthewoods]

Second paragraph is why Dean can't win

<snip>

Some of Dean’s support may be due to his opposition to the war in Iraq, and more Democratic primary voters are looking for an anti-war rather than a pro-war candidate. 39% of Democratic primary voters say they would prefer a nominee who was opposed to the war, compared to 25% who prefer a nominee who supported it. But 33% say the Democratic nominee’s stance on the war in Iraq doesn’t matter to them.

However, among all voters that sentiment is reversed. 41% of registered voters would prefer a Democratic nominee who supported the war, while about half that number -- 22% -- are looking for an anti-war nominee.

<snip>

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/opinion/polls/main590018.shtml

[chimpymustgo]

1. We have to face some realities. Thanks for posting this.

Why was the other thread locked? Purportedly for excessive punctuation/capitalization? Huh?

[bearfartinthewoods]

3. fixed that and reposted...the whole article should be required reading

especially the statistics about the internet effect.

i might be that the internet's impact has been maxed out at this point.

[robbedvoter]

22. Supporters of "other candidates" than HD have a problem with rules:

In this case the transgression was:

. The subject line and the entire text of the message which starts the thread may not include excessive capitalization, or excessive punctuation.

[bearfartinthewoods]

2. ALMOST TWICE THE AMOUNT OF VOTERS FROM ALL PARTIES SAY

THEY DO NOT WANT AN ANTI WAR NOMINEE.

"In polling conducted in the four days leading up to Hussein's capture, when asked who they would vote for “if Bush runs for re-election in 2004,” by 42% to 41%, voters said they would vote to re-elect Bush. Bush’s one-point edge increased to a four-point lead after the arrest of Saddam Hussein, but that change was within the poll’s margin of error.

The current Democratic frontrunner, Howard Dean, fares less well in that pairing. If the election were held today and the candidates were Bush, the Republican and Dean, the Democrat, 55% of voters say they would vote for Bush, while 35% say they would cast their vote for Dean. "

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/opinion/polls/main590018.shtml

[Elidor]

4. Keep spreading that gloom and doom for Christmas

Your post - and this story - ignores the vast gulf between what people want and what they will eventually vote for. Nobody older than seven should fall for such sophistry as this.

[chimpymustgo]

6. The truth is not necessarily doom and gloom. We have a chance to

pick a strong nominee - we have several good choices. Let's pick one - and kick AWOL out of the People's House.

[RetroLounge]

7. Not Truth, just your opinion...

b'bye

[AP]

9. Those poll results are the truth about people's opinions.

[mouse7]

39. Here's proof this is a skewed poll.

CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
(Democratic primary voters)
Now
Howard Dean
16%
Wesley Clark
10%
Richard Gephardt
9%
Joe Lieberman
6%
Carol Moseley-Braun
6%
John Edwards
5%
John Kerry
4%
Al Sharpton
2%
Dennis Kucinich
2%
Don’t Know
24%

"The margin of error in this poll for Democratic primary voters is larger than the overall margin of error for the total sample: there were 244 registered voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary in this survey."

This poll is 10-18% points off what the rest of the national polls show for voter preference for Howard Dean among Democrats in the primaries. The poll says itself that it has a larger margin of error in that aspect. Therefore, the math on the whole poll as well aas the conclusions it comes to are skewed as well.

[bearfartinthewoods]

65. of course people's opinions are

poop </sarcasm>

ONLY 22% OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS WANT A CANDIDATE THAT OPPOSED THE WAR


and who are we about to nominate?


we are soooo screwed........

[polpilot]

47. Hope you didn't bet the house on someone other than Dean this year.

And now you can predict the future??

Dean '04...

[AP]

8. "sophistry"

I've heard that used as a perjorative a couple times now here at DU.

What does it mean when citing a poll is called "sophistry"?

There's something so 1870s about trying to act like knowledge and insight is complicated, unhelful mumbo jumbo.

I get the impression that some people would like to place a higher value on emotion than on smart campaigning. I guess 'sophistry' is going to be the perjorative attached to smart campaigning, while we elevate things like emotions like anger.

[bearfartinthewoods]

10. excellent point!

she-bear made the comparison to the dark ages..when all new knowledge was discarded in favor of proclamations from the church. i'm not sure her version of the dark ages is correct but i understand her point that the church of dean is trying to shut down any voices of dissent.

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. i'd rather have gloom and doom for this Christmas than a re-elected

bush for next Christmas.

[E Pluribus Unum]

31. Re-elected? I didn't think he was elected the first time. n/t

[bread_and_roses]

16. I am confused

...what do you mean? When I read your post, what came to mind is that people say they want health care, good schools, and good jobs, and then go out and vote Republican...a real disconnect, that, between "what people want and what they will eventually vote for." A real indictment of the inability of the Dems these last years to convince voters that they ARE the party that will deliver on these issues (I am really thinking more of Congressional and local elections, since after all, a Democrat DID win the last three Presidential elections:).

[AP]

5. Who really needed CBS to tell them that this was the case?

[Cheswick2.0]

21. maybe you should be worrying about why Edwards is dropping like a rock

in the polls? This constant attacking of the front runner is not doing a bit of good. Everyday 1000 more people sign up to work on Dean's campaign and in every poll his numbers go up.

[AP]

35. mostly, I'm worried about a real democrat getting nominated.

And I'm still confident that Edwards will get the nomination and will win the general election.

By the way, I heard that Dean can't crack 500,000 supporters, whereas Trippi promissed 1 million by Jan 1st, and 2 million by the GE.

I also heard that 60 Minutes has given Edwards a HUGE boost.

[Cheswick2.0]

53. Edwards is more of a democrat than Dean?

Really, this is a ridiculous pissing match and your candidate is just not catching on. You might want to think about tying to beat up the guy you may be working for in a few months. It is not a good plan for beating bush.
If all the ABD people have to offer is attacks based on non-facts, it is not wonder you all are sinking in the polls.

[AP]

54. What are my "non-facts" and why do you impute what I post here

to my candidate?

And, Cheswick, I'm not about to stop calling the truth as I see it because it's incovenient for supporters of other candidates.

[deutsey]

12. Well, again, if Dean can't beat Bush

and if Dean's opponents can't beat Dean, then we're doomed to have another four years of Bush, aren't we?

And regarding polls, I think they're good at giving us some hint of which way the wind may be blowing, but as the 2000 election showed (when polls indicated Bush would win the popular vote), polls aren't always good reflections of reality.

[chimpymustgo]

13. Hello? One of Dean's opponents MAY WELL beat him. Maybe more.

We'll just have to wait for some ACTUAL VOTING to take place. And hopefully voters will look long and hard at all the candidates. Pick the one who reflects their views, who would provide leadership for the party and the country, and can compete against AWOL across the country - and win.

[deutsey]

15. Hello, back.

"MAY WELL beat him" is only speculation. I'm saying that all these gloom and doomers are saying Dean can't win against Bush. Right now, he is leading the pack. If he wins after we have some ACTUAL VOTING, then we're doomed, according to what all you with psychic abilities are saying.

As for me, I support Dean because I believe he can win against Bush, but will support the candidate who wins the primary and will do so believing that person can kick Bush's ass too.

[bearfartinthewoods]

17. every time i read something like your first sentence

i realize we need to have more civics studies in school. <sigh>

[deutsey]

19. Gee, I'm so sorry for causing you such consternation

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go offline for a meeting with my fellow Dean organizers and actually put into action the civics lessons I learned in class about citizen participation in our electoral process.

[bearfartinthewoods]

46. ask them to review for you the difference between the electorate

in the primary and the electorate in the general.

[jsw_81]

41. How we win without the South

We nominate Howard Dean for President, he selects New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson for Vice President, then they carry all the Gore states plus AZ and NV. That would give the Democrats a 275-263 electoral college victory without a single southern state. We win 284-254 if we can win NH and WV, and win 311-227 with FL.

And that's how we win without the South.

[QC]

42. How do we get control of Congress

without having significant support in the South?

That's the great, unspoken problem with all these royal flush scenarios as to how we can "write off the South" and still win.

If the Clinton years taught us anything, it should be that having the White House without at least one house of Congress limits us to doing little more than blocking congressional looniness.

[jsw_81]

45. Congress

I really hate to say it, but I don't see us winning back either chamber of Congress anytime soon, even if we nominate an all-south Edwards/Graham or Clark/Edwards ticket.

The House will be Republican for at least the next four or five cycles thanks to the Texas re-districting fiasco, and the Senate will more than likely stay in GOP hands until at least 2006 thanks to all those Democratic retirements.

But if we can manage to win the presidency next year it will be like a stake through the heart of Congressional Republicans. Yes it's true that a President Dean or President Clark would have a hard time getting anything done (unfortunately that's the way our system was designed), but we will definitely be able to stop most of the right's agenda and control Supreme Court nominations. And who knows, maybe the GOP will self-destruct and we'll win Congress in a landslide in '04 or '06. Stranger things have happened in American politics.

[bread_and_roses]

14. I don't say "Dean can't win"

...because I don't think that's impossible, should he get the nomination, although I think his stance on middle-class tax cuts makes it an uphill battle.

As someone with a strong anti-war stance, I try not to be discouraged by the steady support for Bush/war and look rather at the confusion among voters this poll indicates. For instance, 47% think that the war was not worth the cost, but only 34% think it was a mistake? Over 50% think that SH's capture and events in Libya will have no effect on US safety, but 70% approve Bush's handling of "war on terror"? These numbers make no sense. I would hope that within that confusion lies the opportunity for the Democratic candidates to frame the issue in a way that makes sense to voters.

The other interesting point is how few people are actually paying much attention yet, even among registered Dems. Early days.

A question, for anyone here who might know...even with their "error margins" this seems a small sample from which to draw conclusions? Or are the numbers sufficient?

[bearfartinthewoods]

20. would it make sense to you that the people who are currently paying the

most attention may also be the ones who are most anti-war? their commitment to the anti-war would make them more involved than the general pop, would you agree?

if so, the rest of the voters may not see the war as such an important issue in general and they may not see dean as attractive as the anti-warriors do.

i hate to repost this but it is soooo important.

"Some of Dean’s support may be due to his opposition to the war in Iraq, and more Democratic primary voters are looking for an anti-war rather than a pro-war candidate. 39% of Democratic primary voters say they would prefer a nominee who was opposed to the war, compared to 25% who prefer a nominee who supported it. But 33% say the Democratic nominee’s stance on the war in Iraq doesn’t matter to them.

However, among all voters that sentiment is reversed.

41% of registered voters would prefer a Democratic nominee who supported the war, while about half that number -- 22% -- are looking for an anti-war nominee.

<snip>

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/opinion/polls/main590018.shtml

[bread_and_roses]

24. Yes, I think that is possible

...especially given that in this poll only 12% indicated that they are much interested in the candidates views on Iraq.

The internet is still a small world in politics (as also evidenced by this poll).

Although I am strongly anti-Iraq war - and anti-American imperialism in general - I don't think Dean's anti-Iraq stance can win him this election, barring new developments of course, which could transpire. Not because I think that people genuinely want war, but because he doesn't present any clear alternative vision for working for peace or positioning the US as less of an aggressive economic and military juggernaut generating hatred around the world. His "anti-Iraq war" stance seems as muddled to me as most of his other stances, and I think voters react badly to muddle - particularly when they themselves, as this poll seems to indicate, are deeply confused about what to think about the whole mess.

If he wins the nomination, I still think he has a chance to win the general, because I think any Dem has a chance - they won the last three after all:). But as this poll shows, it is very early to "call" a winner among the candidates.

[mouse7]

40. No... the unemployed have every bit the same motivation

So do those who are seeing their unions busted, or those that see Bush opened all that Alaskan National Forest land to logging, or those who hate the Patriot Act, or seniors selling Medicare to corporate mediical profiteers, or...

No... the reasons for being active in this election cycle to throw Dumbya out of the White House are as varied as the people participating.

[Cheswick2.0]

18. I think this is nonsense

Sorry, but you educate people to the truth you don't cater to their ignorance. Anyone who thinks that war was a good idea is ignorant of the facts. Even republicans are waking up to that fact.

But the truth is Dean is going to do just fine with the general population. He is a moderate with some liberal social views and he is stressing things all people care about such as jobs and health-care.

BF you post nothing but anti Dean posts. Why not tell us who you support and what is good about that person (I mean besides not being Dean) because you aren't getting anywhere this way.

[bearfartinthewoods]

23. because we all do what we do best.

because i have lived for 20 years in pubbie hell and have learned that i can be most effective by pointing to the faults and inconsistencies in a person rather than try to shove my views down someone's throat.

because i have learned that one of the dean camp's strategies to to try and deflect discussions of dean by attacking the candidate of the critics.

and because there are several people who i can gladly support because they do not share the massive faults that i see in dean.

[Killarney]

25. By your argument, not just Dean would lose...

aren't all of our candidates speaking out against the war now? Granted, lots of them were for it at the beginning, but they are now all what would be considered "anti-war". So, by your argument, any of our candidates (not just Dean) would lose.

So, I'm going to keep trying to figure out who I think the best candidate is and not worry about polls that say Americans want a pro-war candidate because we don't have one of those.

[bearfartinthewoods]

26. no...most of our candidate's are speaking out about how badly

bush fucked up the post war period.

only dean, among the front runners, is saying the war was wrong in the first place.

[Crunchy Frog]

38. No, Clark is saying the same thing

but he has the credentials to give credibility to his stance, which is one of the reasons I prefer him as a candidate. Do you think his stance would hurt him in the general election?

[edzontar]

27. YAWN. I just don't believe we can know this yet.

Why not make a positive argument for whoever you support?

I am a Dean supporter, but I recognize that most of the other candidates have good points and I would happily support any one of them (except Lieberman, who I would unhappily support) if they are our nominee.

At some point there is going to be a winner in these primaries and I hope you too will support whoever that winner might be.

[Patriot_Spear]

28. 'Dean might lose' is not a viable alternative platform.

It means absolutely nothing to me.

[TLM]

55. Exactly... they have nothing to run on..

so they do nothing but atack Dean.

[tedoll78]

29. Why I think Dean can actually win:

First of all, before I go through this list, I was a Clark man for a while. He had a great resume, a great electability (in theory), etc. But he did very little with those things on the campaign trail. Poof. Dean might have a different resume, weaker in some spots and stronger in others, but his campaign is zinging primary voters (thus far). A candidate can be ideal on paper, but if his/her campaign is lackluster.. hmm.. it will be for naught..

Why do I think Dean can win?
1) Gore was behind Bush by anywhere from ~5 to 15% in polls taken throughout 1999. I can cite more polling data from past elections showing the eventual victor behind by 20, even 30 points. General election polls taken right now are bunk.

2) That 'A' from the NRA. It makes holding-onto MI, PA, etc easier, and it brings several close non-Gore states into play for us.

3) Fiscal responsibility - he could capture a small segment of the GOP who are budget hawks. Even if it's a mere 1 or 2%, that could be THE difference.

4) Go to a MeetUp and ask those there who's new to politics. Usually, 1/3 to 1/2 will raise their hands. Look at his fundraising: thousands-upon-thousands of first-time political donors. Media reports of Democratic Party events where the reporters don't recognize all of the new people there for Dean. If this pattern continues (and it might.. NH & IA will be a test), we could see 3 to 4 million more voters at the polls in November. Given another 50-50 race (which many are still predicting), those 3 to 4 million could make the difference.

5) He gets a bounce that Bush doesn't: VP selection. This fits for any Dem candidate, but it still figures into why I think Dean can win. We all know that Cheney will still probably be Bush's VP nom. Our nominee gets to use that suspense to his advantage. Dean's campaign is pretty good at milking this kinda thing for good media exposure.

6) Many Greens find him tolerate-able. If we get another 1% from them in the general, again.. it could be the difference..

That's about all for now. Off the top o' my head.

[Killarney]

30. All good points!

[Sinistrous]

32. Basic flaw in the argument:

Campaigns are not based on, nor political races won in nutshells.

All candidates have excellent positions on the full range of issues -- all of them (IMO) infinitely better than the pack of lies on which bush is basing its hopes.

Yes, there are "one-issue" voters, but whether they can swing this election remains to be seen.

Edit for minor grammar correction.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. Lol, but you never know...

[ozone_man]

34. Iraq I had much more popularity, but Bush I lost.

The anti-war stance comes and goes with media manipulation (the Saddam factor). It will wear off as the primaries roll on and we get behind one candidate. Remember before the war ~65% were against the war. The nationalistic response(rally around the flag phenomenon) works to a point, but war weariness eventually overrides this as people come to their senses. The successful Democratic candidate will be able to expose Bush lies and treasonous actions.

[shivaji]

36. Here are my DOZEN reasons why I will vote for Dean

1. He has ACTUAL EXECUTIVE experience in politics as governor.
No one else has it.

2. He has actually balanced budgets. No one else can claim
that distinction.

3. He is the most qualified to design a universal health care
system. He is the only medical professional in the running.

4. He does not believe in preventive military strikes. He never
voted for IWR like Kerry, Lieberman, Edwards & Gephardt.
Clark is on record supporting Iraq war while he was CNN analyst.

5. He has the endorsement of the highest ranking democrat so far,
Al Gore. Clark can't even get endorsement from fellow generals.

6. There are no video's of Dean praising Bush*co. Rove has video's
of Clark praising Bush*, Rummy, Condi and gang. Rove will run
them mercilessly until the dem bas is thoroughly de-energized.

7. Dean has demonstared the most important leadership quality - that
of choosing the right people. Just look at how well his campaign
is doing so far.

8. He is a life long democrat. Clark has been a declared democrat for
less than a year.

9. He has never worked as political lobbyist. Clark has made a fortune
as a lobbyist since his (forced?) retirement.

10. He has held "real" jobs outside government. He was a practising
physician.

11. He is pro-choice and pro-2nd amendment.

12. he will not have to feed at the public trough for campaign cash.
All others will except Kerry.

[QC]

37. You can't even promote your candidate without slamming the others.

Sad.

[JohnKleeb]

43. I'll give you my 12 points for DK if you dont mind QC

1. He stood up against the IWR in the house of representives.
2. He voted against the Patriot Act and as we speak has a bill to repeal it, called the Benjamin Franklin True Patriot Act.
3. He has a strong desire for peace, and works hard for that goal.
4. His education plan I like because it is universal, and that IMO will make people better educated and smarter IMO.
5. He wants universal single payer health care.
6. His views on labor are great, anti NAFTA and WTO, and he wants to repeal the Taft-Hartley Act
7. He has a fair plan for the middle east.
8. He has shown an ablity to stand up to corporate giants.
9. He is willing to save community libraries and hospitals
10. He makes you truly think when you listen to him hard.
11. He has some neat real world experience growing up poor in Cleveland.
12. He himself has great character IMO.

[QC]

44. Excellent!

It's becoming something of a lost art around here, but it is possible to speak well of one person without saying that another one looks like he has HIV, as this character did in another post, or the like.

[polpilot]

48. And the reasons the rest of the country will vote Dean...

Dean '04...

[Mairead]

51. I think you should check your facts

Because you're putting out a lot of errors and irrelevancies, beginning with your point number one.

[edzontar]

49. Zombie Threads of Doom....

Clark is our only hope...

Dean will lose....

We are all doomed.....

Must post again..must keep repeating...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

50. Let's kill lots of people so we can become popular!!

Apparantly, being anti-war is now considered "too liberal to win" by the majority of the American people. So, the Democratic nominee should select a nice helpless 3rd world country, invade and slaughter a lot of it's citizens so we can compete successfully against BushCorp. Hell, let's take on 2 or 3 countries that won't offer as much resistance as Iraq has. That way we'll be able to kill more at less expense. Gotta watch that bottom line. Then we Democrats can point out how much more efficient and cost concious we are than those spendthrift pubbies.

We can dress up our candidate in camouflage and put lots of medals on him. We can instruct him on the proper pronunciation of New-kew-ler and get him to say things that will endear him to the public like, "Brang 'em on!" and "We-all is gonna smoke 'em out." We can get him to wear red white & blue ties with flag tie pins and cufflinks and sing choruses of "God Bless America" when not speaking.

We can get him to divorce his wife and propose to Ann Coulter and talk about "Traditional Family Values", the public loves that.

Yessireee. We Democrats(?) have to get that "moderate" vote that don't like them durn liberals. With a little good American values we could probably we could probably get backing from Halliburton and Exxon, especially if we promise to take out mighty Venezuela or Nigeria who pose a threat to "our" oil supply.

Do you think there's time to change the name of the party to the "Red White and Blue God Bless America Support Our Troops Party" before the election?

Who knows? We might even win the SOUTH!!

[Scott Lee]

52. Dean's doing the best in the South. This is driving the others nuts.

Wait till he winds up with the lion's share of Southern support....then you're really going to see a meltdown here at DU.

[newsjunkie]

63. LOL!

great post

[TLM]

56. If the other candidates can't beat Dean...

they can not win the general election.



Why would you want to run a candidate so weak they can't even beat Dean?

[edzontar]

57. Luckily Dean will beat them...hopefully very SOON

This nonsense is getting boring and annoying.

I have definitely been turned off as a far as Clark is concerned.

[shivaji]

60. Excellent, Excellent point TLM....read on....

you think rationally! You must be in a real profession similar to mine, mechnical engineering & artificial intelligence software development. I spent 25 years working in real jobs, for real companies who actually manufactured a real product. Now take my brother who has been a career military officer all his life. Man I love him but is he living in a dream world!

[FXDS]

58. Kerry has the Big Hammer!

Kerry 2004!

[Raya]

59. Thanks. God, I hope my fellow Dems wake up before its too late

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

61. Welcome to DU, Raya!

:party:
:hurts:
:party:

[newsjunkie]

62. Its ridiculous to say Dean can't win

He isn't 'anti-war' either! He's anti 'war for for bushit phoney reasons'! He will use brains and logic and facts before he sends people to fight in war. He will get in Bushs smirky face and tell him exactly what a liar he is and why he he needs to be replaced in front of anybody, without playing games around it.

[Upfront]

64. Hope Your Wrong

Dean has already won the primary. He is all ready running against B####. and will send him back to Texas. Get real, Farts. lol