Just one simple question...

[rockymountaindem]

Who here thinks we can actually win in November?

Please no "well only if we nominate my candidate" qualifiers, lets assume that our party plays its cards right. Do we have a snowball's chance in hell?

[ogminlo]

1. More like a snowball's chance in Nome.

Bush's house is in decay.

[molly]

2. YES and YES and YES!!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[blm]

17. I say we get 56% of the vote.

.

[leyton]

3. Yes.

We must formulate a good electoral strategy in regards to the South (or not in regards to it, depending on who you ask).

We must field a good candidate, and I think that most of the candidates who have a shot at the nomination would qualify.

We must run a good campaign - that's out of our control, really.

And we have to hope for a little political luck, events-wise. Although, we have already gotten some. Deficit projections are skyrocketing, still no WMD, Bush's spending and his immigration program is not earning him points with traditional conservatives and his state of the union did not earn him points with the religious right. And his space program, which was, I think, proposed to bolster that Bush legacy of a "guy with vision and boldness" (even though he lacks a grasp of any of those pesky details), is not going over well.

[osaMABUSh]

4. Yes. at least 50-50

and getting better each day.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. Warning, large number of not if candidate XXXX is the nominee...

replies coming.

[EstimatedProphet]

6. Yes

Stand tough.
When they try to force-feed you thir crap, throw it back at them.
The Republicans will run when confronted. They are cowards.

[arewethereyet]

7. It is possible, Bush has made trouble for himself

but it will require deft work to take advantage of it.

[rockymountaindem]

8. Please back your enthusiasm up with some details.

On Edit:

We all know that Bush* is a punk-ass loser. I think I'm just afraid that we'll never convince the right people in enough numbers that Bush is, indeed, a punk-ass loser.

[calimary]

24. Details? Just guesses from me, but I'd say

1) Ellen Mariani's gotten some attention in the media - she's the 9/11 widow who won't take hush money for an answer and is suing bush for covering up the investigation.
2) SCOTT RITTER - on CNN (Wolf Blitzer) saying what we all feel here, about the lies that pushed us to war. He said it was WHITE HOUSE lies. Says it goes all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue - BUCK STOPS THERE, whether bush likes it or not. USED THE "L" word - LIED.
3) these folks were both on (she on Scarborough, for heaven's sakes, with her lawyer, and Ritter on CNN) unopposed in their segments. No right-wing spinner planted there to throw in a bunch of hogwash in a transparent attempt to be "balanced."
4) read the posts here that describe themselves as recovering gop-ers. Rather eloquent, all based on hard-won reasoning and eyes slowly being opened to the facts and realities.
5) our guys keep dying in Iraq. This won't go away.
6) David Kay's confessions.
7) Rand Beers and Joseph Wilson have yet to weigh in about Plame-gate. They should, soon enough, they're working for Kerry.
8) WMD probes called for, polls show they're vastly popular.
9) a LOT of faithful conservatives find it increasingly hard to stomach all that wanton, reckless spending. Bush has spent more than any Democrat even dreams of, and most of it wastefully.
10) our loss of civil liberties and the compromising of our privacy rights is starting to bother people. Just take note of some of the ex-gop-ers weighing in here now.
11) even the pundits on primary nights seemed surprised at the record turnouts. Dems are energized and people are starting to notice.
12) Dem primaries mean it's news. And the media HAS to cover it. It's really unavoidable. They HAVE to cover all the speeches, the concessions, the victory dances, and so there's a captive audience that's starting to hear the Democratic point of view presented in a positive light, and denouncing things that people need to hear and be made aware of about the bush botch-job. Free publicity, lots of it, and on EVERY network. Rove can't quash it all.
13) the immigration and other controversies that now find bush pissing off his base. And even trying to throw a bone at the NEA isn't going to win him any converts among the moderates or liberals. WE'RE not fooled!
14) everything Paul O'Neill just recently said.
15) the new liberal talk radio network that starts in March or April - lots of publicity because Al Franken and probably Janeane Garofalo are onboard. Star power. Press whores go for the star power.
16) SOTU, which in an election year is supposed to set the tone of the campaign for the party in power - was a lox on toast. Everybody thought so, and bush's numbers immediately after it went DOWN.
17) the AWOL controversy has reared its ugly head. And as long as you've got two former military people in the running, and one of 'em appears to be the frontrunner, it's gonna KEEP coming up in the back of more than a few minds. And as it begins to itch people, they'll start scratching...
18) the "Selfish Recovery" - so coined by Lou Dobbs in one of his continuing report about the selling out of American jobs overseas. THAT is bothering more and more people all the time. And despite what the headlines claim, people are NOT feeling more stable or secure in this economy. David Broder noted this, on the last "Meet the Press," saying he's been out talking to people and they don't see this great wonderful upturn in the economy anywhere around them. They're all afraid for their jobs or still unemployed.

More people are starting to wake up. It's slow, but it IS happening. I actually think we may have a chance here, no matter WHO'S running!

BESIDES: Michael Moore is coming out with his "Fahrenheit 911" movie right during campaign season, this summer I believe. JOHN DEAN of Watergate fame is coming out with a book I believe is called "Worse than Watergate" or "Worse than Nixon" - in April.

In short, just too many holes are starting to spring in the dike for the republi-CONS to control them all. The boat's starting to take on too much water.

There's more, but I'm outta time. Gotta go pick up my kid.

on edit - had to add 17 and 18. I'm sure I'll think up more. But the point is, these things are starting to add up. And if you question the AWOL factor, it does indeed bother veterans when they hear about it, AND for those who say this is old news and it came up in the last campaign and it's already been "fully vetted," the difference is, THIS time, he's sent America to war and soldiers have died in it. More than 500 - and that's just our guys. That doesn't even begin to count the innocent Iraqis, or British soldiers, OR EVEN how many maimings and blindings and post-traumatic stress patients - OR the suicides. And it all happened for a war HE LIED TO GET US INTO. REPEAT - LIED TO GET US INTO. This ain't no stains on a blue dress.

[maddezmom]

9. we will win in November

if we take the enthusiasm we have right now on our candidate of choice and move it to the Democratic nominee in November.

[THUNDER HANDS]

10. 100% certainty

Bush will be gone by 2005. I have NO doubt.

[LZ1234]

20. You better tell Pat Robertson (LOL).

According to the article by Bill King posted on DU a few days ago "The Reverend Pat Robertson has heard from God Himself, and God told Pat that George W. Bush will win in a landside."

[zbdent]

11. I like to believe that, with a (perceived) weak candidate in Gore

wooden, boring, "intelligent" (somehow that became a liability!) . . .

The media hyping GWB . . .

Rush Limbaugh nearly bursting a vessel in his brain three hours a day, five days a week, 45-50 weeks a year . . .

Every Republican-leaning voter came out to prevent Gore from taking the White House in 2000.

Do you even believe that any Repubs at all "gave up and went home" when the ultraclose race of Florida was "called" for Gore even though there were 15 minutes left in a geographically small portion of the state?

Bush lost the popular vote, and, although Gore lost Tennessee, any one state could have sealed the deal for him (ANY!) while Bush HAD TO HAVE FLORIDA because that was barely enough for him to squeak in an electoral college win.

And now, there are hopeful signs that the Repubs are getting disillusioned with the W ticket, maybe enough that they will decide that whomever gets into the white house will not do so with their backing, and stay home (unlikely). Even more unlikely, some of them may actually vote for the Dem candidate.

Somehow, I don't see the "multimillionare" Dem voters who voted for "wooden" Al Gore will be crossing over in November.

[mlawson]

12. The 'only if we nominate...' qualifier can't be eliminated, IMO.

That is like saying (in August), "my team can win the Superbowl, and I don't care who we play!". A nice, optimistic idea, but unrealistic.

Two weeks ago, I would have said, yeah, we will win in November. Now, I don't think we will.

[lastknowngood]

13. we can win if

that's the plan.

[rockymountaindem]

14. I don't get it...

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

15. Yes

It's going to be tight but I think we can do it. The economy is not turning around in a way that affects regular working people, and that will be a major factor in November. I could be wrong but my sense is that officials who preside over shitty economies and lousy job markets usually don't get re-elected.

Of course it's entirely possible that the Bush administration will simply stage a terrorist attack around Halloween, declare martial law, and suspend elections indefinitely.

On the bright side, if that happens, then we can nominate whoever we want! Huzzah!

[incapsulated]

16. I don't know

It's still a toss-up in my opinion.

National polls are for crap, as is the opinion of the DU posters about Bush (myself included).

I have a very strong feeling they are gearing up for the Osama perp-walk. That, and the mother of all trials, Saddam on court tv, is going to be all over the media during these elections.

People want to wave off Rove and company, even after they stole the Presidency with the help of the Supreme Court and little to no questioning from the media about any of it. This is extremely foolish.

I just don't know.

[rockymountaindem]

18. What about all the electoral college stuff?

[necso]

19. Maybe...

We can win if we:
1) Run a magnificent campaign.
2) Outspend the pugs.
3) Do not alienate too many "single issue" and "moderate" voters.
4) Get the complete(!) support of all those who oppose *.

Otherwise, I make the odds about 80/20 or 90/10 against us. I also think that #4 will be the hardest to acheive, but if we don't do all four we are liable to win again in the popular vote and lose in electoral votes.

[FloridaPat]

21. If the Democrats had any guts the last three years - or even now -

Bush & Co would be in the middle of impeachment proceedings and the republican party would mostly be in jail. It should be so bad, no one in the country would admit to being a republican for the next 100 years. This should be a no-brainer - just like the last one. We really need an opposition party - not an enabling party.

[eyeswideopened]

22. I think we can swing alot of republican voters over if ...

we choose the right candidate.

[MoonRiver]

23. Yes. The House of * is already crumbling from its own internal rot.

And I must say the stench is becoming overwhelming!

:puke:

[Cocoa]

Bush lost last time

and back then, no one had any clue how bad he'd suck.

No one is voting for Nader this time around.

[kaitykaity]

25. Yes.

We have to. There is no other option. Another four years of these lying, filthy monsters will destroy this country.

[adadem]

26. Absolutely

plenty of Republicans are pissed at shrubby.