NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/15/opinion/15sun1.html?th&emc=thEnergy Impasse
Published: January 15, 2006
Two weeks ago, a brief Russia-Ukraine squabble over natural gas pricing sent a tremor through Europe. One week ago, another tremor swept through the West - this time America joined in the shakes - when Iran broke open internationally monitored seals on its nuclear facilities, clearing the way for uranium enrichment activities that are a big step toward making a nuclear weapon.
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Fast-forward one week, to last Tuesday, when Iranian officials, ignoring pleas and threats from Europe and America, broke the seals on its nuclear facilities. And why not? President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the clerics who run Iran know one thing that Western leaders also know but will not say: there is nothing the West can do because Iran has a bargaining chip - petroleum - that puts it out of reach. Iran is the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Saudi Arabia, and is home to some 10 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. Iran also has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, after Russia's.
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Clearly, becoming less dependent on foreign sources should be among the West's - and most especially America's - most urgent priorities. But not in the way that President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney seem to prefer, which is to try to drill our way out of dependency - an utterly impossible task for a country that uses one-fourth of the world's oil while possessing only 3 percent of its reserves, and whose once-abundant supplies of natural gas are now severely stressed. A much better answer would be a national commitment to more efficient vehicles and to the rapid deployment of new energy sources like biofuels.
America cannot win President Bush's much-vaunted war on terrorism as long as it is sending billions of dollars abroad for oil purchases every day. It cannot establish democracy in the Middle East because governments rich in oil revenue do not want democracy. And it will never have the geopolitical leverage it needs as long as it is dependent on unstable foreign sources for fuel.