Consider this -

[OldLeftieLawyer]

A friend of mine who's a Lieutenant Colonel in the Marine Reserves, a Desert Storm veteran, been in the military since he was 18, whose father flew fighters in Vietnam, etc., and who is utterly opposed to this Iraq invasion (he said he'd probably resign his commission if they tried to call him up) and to the Fuckface administration, said this to me today, and it still has my head spinning:

"Why would a country (Iran) with more oil than water need nuclear weapons? It's the first step towards Armageddon, and there's not a damn thing we can do about, because Saddam Hussein was all we had standing between us and Iran. Israel is in the most danger it's ever been in. The whole world is."

Armageddon. I fear he's right. He fears he's right, and he's the toughest guy I know.

[Olney Blue]

1. God- Flying Spaghetti Monster- or SOMETHING help us!

[roguevalley]

29. I'm sorry, but this kills me:

God- Flying Spaghetti Monster- or SOMETHING help us!

:rofl:

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

2. "all we had standing between us and Iraq"

I think your friend has put his finger right on it. Because the neoCons had parents who bought them Risk and Stratego as youngsters, the rest of the world has to suffer. These leaders have no sense of humanity as a whole or any idea of what a fragile interface the entire world is. I constantly wonder - what kind of a planet do they believe they are leaving to their own children?

[sarcasmo]

33. Risk was a fun game and you are right it was all about winning and

nothing else.

[BrklynLiberal]

3. I fear he is right. I hate being in this handbasket!!!!!!

[boobooday]

22. Bush's Handbasket

[INdemo]

4. You have a very strong point

and it seems we have no control.The news media is backing the most corrupt President is our history. Our basic rights are violated and nothing is done to correct it. Oh yes there is talk but every time I get an email from the DSCC instead of telling us what they're doing to expose the corrupt,they are begging for money to do something soon(as they say).
If the US invades Iran even by air strikes its the beginning of the end.

[NMDemDist2]

5. agreed, I think either Israel or we will bomb Iran's nuclear facility and

their (the Iranian's) army will pour over the Iran/Iraq border to fight us. then the BFEE will point and say "See? We told you they were dangerous. Due to the seriousness of the situation, we are activating the military draft beginning immediately"

and there we go........

and we'll take the whole world with us :cry:

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. All this just to bring about some mythical Rapture

[David Dunham]

8. Actually, a land-based attack on Iran to destroy the sites would be doable

Experts say that bombing will not work because the sites are underground and spread out in Iran. It would take a land-based force to go to Iran, destroy the sites, and then pull out quickly, back to Iraq. It looks like Bush would get UK, German, French, and other NATO support too.

[NMDemDist2]

9. yeah, right

you think the new "Death to America" president of Iran will just let his LARGE fully equipped army just stand there while we waltz in to destroy their infrastructure??

:crazy:

[David Dunham]

10. The US and European troops would easily overwhelm the Iranians

[OldLeftieLawyer]

12. What US troops?

Where have you been?

We have no troops. They're worn-out, exhausted, and close to worthless right now.

Have you looked at Iran on a map lately?

[David Dunham]

14. We have 150,000 troops in Iraq that could be in Iran in a day or two

The Iranian leader seems to have forgotten about that point. We also have 3,000 war planes in the Gulf region.

[NMDemDist2]

15. so you'd leave our flanks totally unprotected with our supply lines

at the mercy of the Iraqis while we attacked another Muslim nation?

that just won't fly man, I tell ya.....

[David Dunham]

17. The Iran operation will be go in, destroy the sites, and get out quick

If the Iranians followed us back to Iraq, they could be demolished by the NATO air forces, just as Saddam's fleeing army was leaving Kuwait in 1991.

[NMDemDist2]

19. oh man, I want some of what you're smoking....

this is the same thinking that gave us "FLowers and Candies"

it looks so good on paper though......

:banghead:

[OldLeftieLawyer]

20. Tell me that

our troops will be greeted with flowers, hailed as heroes, and embraced by all of Iran.

You've drunk too much Kool-Aid, my friend.

You're Dick Cheney, aren't you?

[NMDemDist2]

21. i will leave the field to you dear Lefty since we are both singing the

same song and I'm feeling my Sunday nap coming on... :boring:

:hi:

[tkmorris]

35. Get out quick?

Have a look.



How the hell do you propose we get into Iran, destroy these sites, and then bug out? Do you envision a couple of helicopters flying in a Seal team in the middle of the night or something? Please tell me you don't.

Then again, you mentioned 150,000 troops going in and getting out. That's even madder, frankly. First of all it took those same troops 3 days to reach Baghdad, fighting a far weaker opponent, when they were fresh and had functional equipment. Such is no longer the case. There is no way they could accomplish anything similar in Iran right now. There just isn't.

On edit, sorry about the size of that map. Apparently that is it's native size. Should I remove it?

[OldLeftieLawyer]

36. Groovy..........

No, the map size is perfect - it does show, in what I think is an appropriate scale, the distances that these "get in and get out quick" proponents simply do not understand. Looking at a map is always an education in itself.

My friend is right, because he thinks clearly, has been hearing from other Marine Officers who are in the thick of it here and over there, and has a brilliant understanding of strategy, military ways, and history.

It's that simple: Saddam was our buffer. Iran hates the US. They are nuclear. They hate Israel. We are screwed.

His use of the word "Armageddon" was not casual.

My experience with situations in life and in the courtroom and in everything else is that they're most accurately summed up simply. When people start using lots of words and pulling theories out of places that never really have seen daylight, you can be sure that they're wrong.

Occam's Razor, my friend.

Thanks for all of this.

Now, let us pray..........

[OldLeftieLawyer]

18. You're serious

I think you might want to discuss your plan with competent military personnel. They'll explain how it works.

The Iranian leader hasn't forgotten a thing.

Iran owns us, and Fuckface put us in this position.

Get ready for the Rapture Fuckface so eagerly embraces, regardless of the rest of us.

[guidod]

39. I think you just found

the reason Murtha said we would be out of Iraq by the end of the year.

[Douglas Carpenter]

44. that would trigger a massive Shiite uprising in Iraq and elsewhere

Any hope whatsoever for a resolution in Iraq would be destroyed by a major attack on Iran.

Iran is surrounded on all sides -- north, east, south and west by hostile forces. They have reason to be paranoid. What would any country do in a similar situation?

[NMDemDist2]

13. what "US" troops? maybe if we left Iraq (our flank) in chaos

and I doubt the EU will be very thrilled about the idea of backing our (and Israel's) action in the ME.

Most EU nations have relatively small standing armies and most also have a very tenuous relationship with the large Muslim populations of their countries

no way it'd go like you're suggesting IMO

[sarcasmo]

34. Russia and China are the wild cards. Even if all Russia and China do is

supply Iran with arms it will be enough to defeat our weak Military. If I were China and the U.S. attacked Iran I would invade the U.S. from the west.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

37. China's staying out of it

No way China will get involved beyond selling arms to everyone but us.

The sad truth is that people have no idea how weakened our military is right now. My friend, the Marine Officer, hears from his buddies who are over there. It's a bad, bad, bad situation, and people have no idea how badly equipped, badly trained, and desperately demoralized our troops are. All this "support our troops" bullshit means nothing beyond a magnetic ribbon made in China, stuck to a car over here in America, where people think we're safe because Fuckface invaded Iraq.

It was, without question, the worst thing any President has ever done, and, in world history, it will surely be recorded as the Asshat Mistake Of All Time.

China has much more leverage with us because it's our major creditor. Watch it start to manipulate the interest rates here by screwing with the dollar.

[sarcasmo]

40. Our military is so weak right now you don't think China would demand

payment. They could take payment in the form of food, or Military equipment then come in and take over the country. No way under the current state we are in could we stop China.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

11. It won't

There is no way there will be the number of troops available for that kind of assault.

And it would trigger a nuclear holocaust, without question.

You really think European countries would support that?

Iran's got all the cards right now, including the Pakistan's ISI in its pocket.

[Burning Water]

24. I think you're right, and

as long as America did not stay to 'rebuild' Iran, I think the BFEE would get away with it.

[bananas]

25. Experts say bombing will work

Vikram Sood was head of RAW, India's external intelligence agency,
he thinks bombing will be very effective.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=126069&mesg_id=126069

edit: here's another expert who says bombing will work:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2039014&mesg_id=2039014

[ComerPerro]

43. This adminstration doesn't have the moral courage required to draft

They won't even stand up and appeal to young Republicans to enlist, because they need to perpetuate the myth that the war is going well, and don't want to bum out all their idiot fratboy supporters by asking them to enlist...

[MasonJar]

7. In a word (few that is), we have the most incompetent, malicious,

irresponsible, godless group of leaders in the history of the world. They cannot see beyond the next big buck. They are cruel and unthinking. I fully expect the US to go down; if the rest of the world has any sense, they will not go with us. This includes almost all Pugs in the Congress and on the Supreme(less) Court, but especially the WH and those enabling its atrocities, citizens included.

[NanceGreggs]

16. I hope you're wrong ...

... but I'm convinced you're right. My country will never be what it once was - it was GREAT while it lasted. I always thought we'd have more than 230 years, but ...

[bananas]

23. I don't understand that question

"Why would a country (Iran) with more oil than water need nuclear weapons?"

Why does any country need nuclear weapons?
Why did England need nuclear weapons?
Why did France need nuclear weapons?
Why did the Russia, India, Pakistan, Israel, South Africa need nuclear weapons?

Israel probably has around 1,000 real nuclear warheads, with delivery systems.
Iran is probably 10 years from making it's first low-yield nuke.

[many a good man]

27. Should have been stated as nuclear "energy"

Iran claims it wants nuclear power for entirely peaceful purposes.

Under the bush* doctrine, its been shown that a nuclear deterrent is the only thing that can stop a US preventative attack.

Right wingers in both Iran and here benefit from the saber rattling and brinksmanship. We're NOT going to fight Iran. We WILL fight a Shia takeover of the oil regions, if it ever comes to that, by fomenting civil war where possible.

[hatrack]

26. Iran's conventional oil production peaked in 1973

They still have quite a bit left, but more importantly they have lots and lots of natural gas. But, yeah, there are legitimate reasons for Iran to pursue nuclear power.

Not that I think that's all they're considering . . .

[bananas]

31. They also can mine their own uranium to use as fuel

so nuclear power makes a lot of sense for them.

[Lexingtonian]

28. that's silly

There's a reason this fellow is with the military, and he's not that competent a political observer.

First of all, about 99% of the apocalypticism and Manichaeanism going on in peoples' heads worldwide is going on in the American Lower 48. They have the bizarre concurrent belief that everyone else is either naive or on the side of their enemies.

The Middle East is, for one thing, simply tired of 40 years of nuclear weapons wielded by right wing paranoiac Americans and right wing paranoid Israelis being waved in their faces. The immediate lesson of the Iraq invasion and its political run-up in the Middle East is that if you want to be an autonomous nation, you need nuclear weapons.

If you look long and hard at what the Iranians are doing, the Iraq thing has ruined the Bush people and remaining American Cold War military. Average Americans got into the Iraq thing on the condition that their normal life would not be disrupted, and there's nothing about Iran that motivates Americans to sacrifice- which keeps oil the key concern. The Bush Administration is politically hamstrung by its bad bargain with its People. All the threats emanating from Washington are rather toothless if Iranians stay unified. The sense in the Middle East is that Americans are on their way out of Iraq and getting flushed out of the region generally as a force/ally of the regimes. It's only about waiting Americans out and making them burn more bridges with the peoples and regimes of the region. The worse the Bush people behave, the sooner they'll get disinvited from the region.

The more serious Iranian game, as I see it, is longer term- about driving the other disrupting force in the region, Israel, to rescind its aggressive/paranoid public stance on nuclear weapons use. Which is in fact in the Israeli best interest in the long run, and despite the propaganda real Israeli nuke use policy is probably the same locally defensive one as apartheid South Africa's. But the Israeli radical Right remains a force (though broken by Sharon this year) that is seen as a regional threat to run amok, to go postal if you will.

[maryallen]

38. Well said.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

30. What will we do when all the

pigs glow in the dark.... the other white meat will be blue, green and orange..... criminy.

[Donna Zen]

32. Your friend is correct imho

Iraq was the buffer state in the Gulf region and kept the power balanced. Many of the other moderate Gulf states do not want to see a nuclear Iran with defacto control on the lower third of Iraq.

About the nukes: 1) General Clark said that he would imagine the plans (he says he has no inside knowledge but postulates that plans are being drawn up.) would call for 6-8 of bombing with a return to later check on the results. 2) He also said that the problem is we don't know if we know where all nukes facilities are. 3) The world is not keen on believing our intelligence 4) bush will make the appearance of consulting with the Europeans 5) This will put the Democrats in a terrible bind come Nov 06.

To date: this administration has never talked to Iran. Not a mumbling word. This is point that the Democrats should be shouting every time one of the slimey news readers asks.

It should be noted that while the Iranian people do not like their government, the vast majority want nukes. Why should Iran not have nukes?...well, personally, I don't want bush to have nukes or any other crazy-ass dictator. How much will the Iranians like us after we bomb their country? A lose-lose situation.

Some people place the sin of this war in Iraq on the lies about WMD, but what is far worse than that is the fact this war was/is the greatest geopolitical strategic blunder that our country (maybe any country) has ever made.

[DoYouEverWonder]

41. Why does Iran need nuclear power?

Because all that oil that they have, which is one of their few exports, brings in much needed income.

With prices going over $100 a barrel, I would consider going to nuclear power too. Why waste that oil on yourself, when you can make a lot more money selling it and generate long term cheaper power via nuclear reactors. The big problem with nuclear power, other then the WMD issue, is what to do with the waste and I somehow doubt if the Iranians are big on environmental issues.

[Catchawave]

42. Too bad military (active and reserves) aren't allowed

to publically criticize their commander-in-chief :( Many great careers have been ended for doing so.

[Debs]

45. While they have oil

They also use a lot, they will be out in about 20 years. Nuclear power is something they need to start NOW.I dont think its time to be alarmist. This isnt that hard a fix. Help them build lightwater power plants in return for serious inspections. If we ratchet down the rhetoric and agree to a non agression pact that will give them reason to be less afraid of an invasion, we should be able to take care of this through diplomacy. Not to mention we probably wouldnt be in this mess if we hadnt invaded Iraq which drove their electorate into the hands of the hardliners. They have not said they want nuclear weapons they have said they want nuclear power. Call that bluff NOW.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

46. I hope you're right

But Iran is not a country you're going to bluff.

And, as I'm sure you know, you never call a bluff when you've got nothing.

We've got nothing.

I don't think they're bluffing, by the way. Their time to make a move is now, and I think they're going to do it. They hate so much, it's a powerful impetus.