To all DUers

[knight_of_the_star]

I have been reading a LOT of threads on here that are talking about how we have to rally behind this candidate for this and that reason for the past few days and I have something important to say in regards to that:

ONLY TWO PRIMARIES HAVE BEEN HELD SO FAR!!!

Kerry's only won Iowa and New Hampshire and SUDDENLY everyone here is talking about him like he's the one. There are people saying that Clark, Dean, and Edwards can't beat Kerry now and are implying that the race is over, let's rally behind the candidate.

Remember, we have MANY primaries to go through BEFORE we get a nominee. Just because two of the primaries are over and the media is casting their predictions and annoiting the cadidate for us doesn't mean squat.

Look at where Kerry was a WEEK before Iowa. He was widely considered not JUST by the media but also a good chunk of DUers to be running a dead-end campaign. Then look at what he has accomplished. And such an upset can happen again.

This race ain't over yet, so WHY are we talking about strategy as if it already is done and decided?

It's not over until the Fat Lady sings, and she is just starting her warmup. Remember that.

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. because

The fact is, whether anyone wants to see it, NO candidate has ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and not won their party's nomination.

[slinkerwink]

3. clinton didn't win Iowa and NH

take that.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. um...slink

NO candidate who has won both primaries has ever lost the nomination.


Clinton doesn't apply here.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. This historical aspect seems to be overlooked repeatedly

yet it is huge.

The Dean fans believe somehow that the other states will see a different Kerry and Dean and Clark and Edwards than the voters before them saw in Iowa and NH.
It is naive.
The voters of those 2 states had 12 months to look at all 4 men. (Well 3 of them anyway) and In Dean 's case in NH even longer.
I credit the Dean following with optimism. I do not think it is realistic but it is optimism nonetheless.

[xultar]

9. She's saying that some have so don't line up for Kerry for President

signs @ the convention just yet.

[THUNDER HANDS]

13. she might be saying that, but she'd be incorrect in asserting that here

I'll repeat. No candidate has ever 'come from behind' to win a nomination after another candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

History is against Dean, and every other candidate in this race.

[Duder]

22. And other than Carter...

In all other cases, the candidate who won both Iowa and New Hampshire lost the presidential election in November.

[Democrats unite]

23. History is only bound to repeat itself

If you don't learn from it.

[GalleryGod]

31. 'Tis Tragic, Magic but you are Cor-RECT, Sir

:nopity: :think:

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. and if Tsongas had won Iowa you'd have a point

But Tsongas didn't win Iowa and Harkin didn't win New Hampshire. So the field was wide open.

So...once again, Clinton does not apply.

[knight_of_the_star]

15. And?

Has the Democratic Party ever had a drafted general as one of their candidates who jumped in a little too late because he was drafted in?

Hence, the Iowa and NH deal STILL doesn't apply. Each race is different, don't think that just because Kerry won Iowa and NH he's got a lock on the nom. Tuesday can make or break anyone.

[THUNDER HANDS]

25. just from a political observer standpoint

I think that argument is a little weak. If Dean had won both Iowa and New Hampshire then you'd have something.

Because Clark was brought in to be the anti-Dean and take him down, according to the conventional wisdom.

Clark isn't the anti-Kerry. He's got a resume that's arguably better than Kerry's, but his life story isn't as good.

And he doesn't have 1/10th of Kerry's political instincts and ability to adapt.

Clark is smart, but you have to be some kind of special smart to be able to walk into a presidential race ice cold and adapt to all the twists and turns of a campaign.

If Clark can't give a convincing reason why he's more qualified to be president than Kerry than the voters are just going to give him a quick glance, and walk away.

But we'll see. Maybe I'll be proven wrong. But that would also, at the same time, be proving decades of political history wrong.

And Clark doesn't strike me as the kind of candidate who's just going to "take off." Again, I think he's matched up against the one candidate who negates his main strenght - war creds.

[Democrats unite]

24. WHy doesn't Clinton apply here?

eom

[THUNDER HANDS]

26. Clinton doesn't apply to this model

Because Tom Harkin ran in Iowa in 1991 and threw the whole mess out of whack.

Because he was the natural winner, New Hampshire became the real starting point and Clinton, who was dogged by the early sex scandals, came in second to Paul Tsongas.

So since Harkin and Tsongas were the first two winners, the historical model of winning the first two primaries and going on to the nomination doesn't apply.

You can only compare Kerry to candidates who actually have won both states. And ALL the other candidates went on to win the nomination.

[question everything]

6. Clinton skipped Iowa for Harkin - favorite son (n/t)

[displacedtexan]

10. If I remember correctly, Clinton didn't compete in Iowa.

Could be wrong, but I think I remember that. Harkin was my first choice in that race... but I was really happy with Clinton, even though I hated NAFTA, the welfare redo, and several other compromise issues.

[oldleftguy]

20. Love that Button!

Talk about making lemons into lemonade! :hi:

[krkaufman]

19. Here's hoping...

> NO candidate has ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire
> and not won their party's nomination.

Here's hoping, then, that Kerry finally takes a lead on an issue and follows through.

[lovedems]

2. I am waiting until it's a done deal. I will rally behind the nominee

once it is a done deal, but until then I am sticking with my candidate.

[question everything]

5. It is called the big mo (I think)

Too many voters do not have the time or the inclination to really study every candidate (and every ballot measure in California, at least). Basically, they let the voters in Iowa and in New Hampshire to do the studying for them. Also, as has been reported, these "retail" campaigns allow the candidates to fine tune their messages.

And there is the big money question. I was among the many who were shocked to find out that Dean is almost out of money. And new contributions go to the presumed winner. Dean is confident that he can raise more, the way he did in previous months - I doubt it.

I am glad that most are still holding for next week round, but I suspect that the field will be narrowed if not on Feb. 4, definitely on Feb. 11.

This is why I support the suggestion to replace the current system with four or five regional primaries, one each month in a rotating order.

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4336810.html (require registration)

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/7795058.htm

[blm]

8. Good for you. That's the right attitude.

Kerry supporters suffered attempts at constant humiliation by those here who thought they walked on water for most of last year.

We didn't bend to it. We didn't break. Real deals pull through.

[Algorem]

11. Dean got more votesTues. in New Hampshire than Bush did 4 years ago

[knight_of_the_star]

16. Kick

:kick:

[NV1962]

17. self-deleted

Posted in wrong thread - I'm an :kick:

[knight_of_the_star]

18. Thank you (nt)

[mandyky]

21. It's gonna be a brokered convention

By no means does Kerry have things sown up. Sheeple may vote between now and next week, but once the American people understand the "media" routine on any Dem candidate that wins something, some reconsidering will be done.

[FreeperSlayer]

27. ABB!

Bush Out!

[isbister]

28. A turn around could happen

Kerry has a few things Dean didn't. He's been in national politics for long time and in the national spotlight on a number of occasions.

He also doesn't have the holes in his resume like the others... Kucinich and Edwards come close but America isn't ready for Kucinich and may not be for Edwards either (because of his experience/youth).

Two under the belt, fantastic poll numbers in the upcoming contests, and folks jumping on the endorsement bandwagon are very helpful for Kerry.

[GalleryGod]

30. Not likely; A Cruel Winter for Neophytes

:hangover: :nopity: :hurts:

[GalleryGod]

29. Go Yell at Al Friggin' Gore! Primaries? Let's have One Per Week?

Kerry still rolls; Edwards & Clark closely bunched in 2nd.

Here's the relevant political theory first espoused by Theodore H. White in "The Making of the President 1960".:think:
that has kicked-in vis-a-vi Dean & John Kerry ,especially:


***"Confirmational act(s) of prior suspicions (hunches,gut feelings, et.al) and precalculated judgments".****(wish I had a page cite)

IMHO-despite the "Sleepless Summer Tour" and premature ejaculation endorsements and polls- the twin trip hammers of Iowa and New Hampshire followed closely by the ransacking of his Staff & "Hey! Where'd the Money go,Dude?" have Undone Dean.

Of course, that's IMHO, but, that's my job,too

Your Man in the Faculty Nook of the S.U.B.:hangover:
G.G.:smoke: