Next few months important for Louisiana Democrats

[lablue]

Louisiana is one of the few states in the South where Democrats are doing reasonably well. Hold all statewide offices (one because of death of GOP Secy of State, but five others elected Democrats), one Senate and majorities in legislature. GOP has 5 of 7 House seats.

That could change rapidly in next couple of years. All eyes on Blanco's seat in 2007. GOP likely Bobby Jindal. If Dem Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (Mary's brother) decides to run for Mayor of New Orleans - a very real possibility - he likely won't run for Governor. There is some question of whether or not he'd run if Blanco runs for reelection. There is also lots of rumor talk of folks wanting John Breaux back to run for Governor. There will be other Democrats in the race - Blanco or no Blanco - but Breaux and possibly Landrieu would be strong or, in Breaux's case, maybe slam dunk candidates. With a strong top of the ticket (who knows,Blanco maybe be strong by then), the legislature may stay Democratic and Mary Landrieu's Senate seat will be safer.

Next few months important because of step one - will Mitch Landrieu run for mayor of New Orleans and, finding out how many and which New Orleans voters are voting.

[PDittie]

1. What do you think the impact of

Katrina and Rita victims moving permanently out of the state might be?

[lablue]

2. biggest impact in new orleans

It's mostly good news for Republicans and Republicans are quite aware of that. African American in New Orleans are the most reliably Democratic voters in the state. Latest reasonable estimation based on habitable housing is that NO will move from 70 African American to 61 percent. The question is how many of these Democratic voters are going to vote absentee and eventually return. We'll find out in the mayor's race in Feb Mar or April (haven't set dates) and the cong elections in the fall.

One silver lining for Dems might be the shifts of (mostly black) Dem voters to other places in the state, like Baton Rouge, where almost often vulnerable R Cong Baker could be in trouble. Dem Melancon in a swing district did quite well in the hurricane aftermath and seems to make that district safer Dem.

The effects of Rita are less certain since it hit the most political mixed part of the state - south and southwest La.

[...of J.Temperance]

3. Mitch Landrieu won't run for Mayor of NOLA

Mitch is in a good position as Lt.Governor, why would he take a demotion to be a Mayor?

If by October 2006, Governor Blanco's poll numbers are still in the 34% region, then I think she'll stand down for the sake of the party. Then Mitch Landrieu would automatically become Governor. This way, he'd have a year to establish his own record as Governor...and in the election of November 2007, he'd be very difficult to beat, he'd be the Incumbent and he's already popular now as it is.

Mitch Landrieu vs Bobby Jindal...Landrieu 52%, Jindal 48%.

Don't forget some 200,000 NOLA blacks are now in Baton Rouge, East Baton Rouge and some in West Baton Rouge...they need to be signed up to vote in those two Parishes.

Eddie Sapir will run for Mayor of NOLA, he'll beat Republican Peggy Wilson. Sapir is trusted by blacks, the 40% remaining blacks in NOLA, Sapir is also trusted by middle class whites.

[lablue]

4. Hope you're right

about Mitch Landrieu staying put and running for Governor. I'm not sure that just being Lt. Governor is being in a good position - unless Blanco doesn't run.

You're right, Mitch would likely beat Jindal. Dems need a win in 2007 going into tough 2008. That leaves Mary Landrieu with a beaten Jindal as opponent or no big name. Even with fewer votes in New Orleans she could pull it off. But, man, they are gunning for her.

[...of J.Temperance]

5. Senator Landrieu is tough

Mary Landrieu kicked Suzanne Terrell all over the state...she'd do the same with Bobby Jindal. Mary Landrieu fights like a junkyard dog, if someone gets into an election fight with her, you'd have to give her the upper hand because she's going to come out swinging full-on.

I don't think Governor Blanco is going to run. It's a shame, I like her, I think she did her best during Katrina, she was in an unprecedented situation, and she did the best that she could with what she had available to her. But thanks to the GOP Mediawhores spinning, she's taken a beating...of course Haley Barbour who was a disaster, is held up as a shining example of perfection, because he's a Repuke.

Governor Blanco won't run...by October 2006 she'll step down for "health reasons" and Governor Landrieu will take over.

The thing is who do the GOP have apart from Jindal, Baker and McCrery? Who are they going to run, Jay Blossman!!

[lablue]

6. she's tough - i like her a lot - but she's a top target

We're absolutely on the same side. But I want to be realistic - she won close ones with the candidates from hell Suzanne Terrell and Woody Jenkins. Without 100,000 vote win in Orleans, she wouldn't have beaten Terrell. I think if Jindal doesnt run, the GOP will drag up some state legislator and try to make him or her a star with lots of money. If HRC is the Demo nominee (and I like her), it's going to be tough for Landrieu in a Louisiana with less black voters - I think she wins because she's been really strong, but it's not going to be easy. Of course, the GOP has a lot Jay Blossman losers to choose from and if she's lucky they'll rally around one of them.

ON Blanco - you just don't know if she'll quietly step down if her numbers remain low. It's logical, but politicians aren't logical.

[...of J.Temperance]

7. I

Agree that the 100,000 missing from NOLA is going to be a big hurdle. However, I think that Senator Landrieu can overcome this, as I commented 200,000 NOLA displaced are still in Baton Rouge, we need to sign them up to vote in East Baton Rouge and West Baton Rouge.

It's going to be difficult I agree, but with Senator Landrieu's determination, I wouldn't count her out. If she could pad leads in Caddo as well as Baton Rouge, and get some more votes in Jefferson, she can do this. Don't forget that Terrell didn't win Jefferson by such a big margin, so that Parish could be flipped to our side.

I think that Governor Blanco will be quietly offered a nice pension and a nice house and she'll take it, she'll do this for the Louisiana Democratic Party. She knows that whats best for the party and whats best is to keep hold of the Governor's Mansion is what is the most important.

Unfortunately right now, only 19% of voters are saying that they'll vote for Governor Blanco in 2007. It's tragic, because I think she's a good Governor and I like her as a person as well. But being pragmatic, I feel that in October 2006, if she's not back to a minimum of 49%, then she's going to have to fall on her sword for Mitch Landrieu.

Welcome to DU btw :hi:

[lablue]

8. NOLA mayor and governor

I still think Blanco is the big important question mark. I hope someone can talk her into not running. She'd run third if a credible Democrat is in the race. Right now, I know Foster Campbell is gearing up for a run for Governor, but he probably isn't strong enough and would likely lose to Jindal even if he runs ahead of Blanco. That's why Mitch or a gift from John Breaux is so important. A Blanco blowout loss to Jindal in 2007 would really be bad for the party. It would set up a majority Republican or practically majority Republican legislature reapportioning the move from 7 to 6 CD's - and would leave Mary Landrieu with a very weak party behind her.

I didn't know about any candidate but Peggy Wilson (Roy Fletcher is running her campaign so it will be loud) and I hope you're right it's just the two of them. But Mitch has good reasons to run. You tell how much he loves his city and this is the most important time in it's history. He's young and can run for governor late.

I think it's key that we see reasonably strong traditional Democratic turnout in New Orleans for the mayor's race. That's why the GOP is so intent on having it run quickly - it gives less time to get especially poorer voters organized enough to vote absentee.

btw - thanks - i read du all the time, haven't posted in a year or so and am too lazy to figure out how to use the smiley things