Pennsylvania Senate seat and Tennessee Senate seat

[...of J.Temperance]

I'm going to say right now, that we'll win both of these seats.

In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey Jr. will defeat Rick Santorum, by a minimum of 6%.

In Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr. will defeat whoever the Republican candidate is, by a minimum of 4%.


On Edit: Added word.

[global1]

1. Are 4 & 6% Within The Margin Of Being Stolen? n/t

[...of J.Temperance]

2. The 4% and the 6% are my minimum percentages

The way the polls are now, in Pennsylvania, Bob Casey Jr. could easily win by up to 12%.

In Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr. could win by up to 10%, I don't think any scandal involving his Uncle is going to affect him.

[Tiggeroshii]

41. Do you have polling data?

For Harold Ford? Do you know if he is leading any candidate right now?

[tx_dem41]

3. I agree on the PA prediction.

I look forward to the addition of Casey into the Senate. He is a different voice and I think that can only make the party stronger. I am staunchly pro-choice but am not afraid to have my beliefs challenged. I don't think the party should be afraid either.

As for Tennessee, I think it depends on who wins the Republican primary. If they choose the more moderate candidate (whose name escapes me at the moment :) ), I think Ford will have a rough go at the seat. Will his popularity in Memphis (quite a bit different than the east side of Tenn), translate statewide? I have my doubts. I also like Ford, much for the same reasons I like Casey.

[Mummyman]

4. I half agree.

I also agree that Santorum will lose, but it will be Chuck Pennacchio who beats him. Casey is too boring, and doesn't have enough support amongst the true Democrats.

[tx_dem41]

5. What is the latest polling on the Casey vs. Pennacchio race?

n/t

[MrBenchley]

18. Casey 67%...Pennachio 5%

See the last paragraph...

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/13130219.htm

[...of J.Temperance]

19. Yeah...Casey at 67%...I mean he's just NOT THAT popular is he?

Amongst "real" Democrats.

:eyes:

[MrBenchley]

20. Guess only DINOs in the center like him (snicker)

[...of J.Temperance]

22. Well

Yes of course!

:rofl:

[MrBenchley]

23. Have a happy new year!

Go Democrats!!

[...of J.Temperance]

24. You have a happy new year as well MrB!

Go Democrats!!

[Mummyman]

26. Different Poll

Here's a different poll with different results:

http://www.dailykos.com/poll/1125008870_eGyVFAHF

[tx_dem41]

28. Respectfully, that's an online poll. n/t

[Mummyman]

30. Polls

That's an argument I expected, but I figure the people who voted in my poll are more along the lines of the diehards who vote in the primary. Therefore, I think that this poll might be more accurate than the other one which favored Casey.

In either case, it's way too early to be looking at polls. Casey vs. Pennacchio or Casey vs. Santorum. I seem to remember Kerry beating Bush by 14 points a few months before the election...

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. How many of those who voted in that poll are from PA?

:shrug:

[AlecBGreen]

6. hey Mummyman

welcome to DU! :hi: :toast: :party:

[Mummyman]

9. Thanks!

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Nonsense

Pennachio will be lucky to get 3%.

Casey is the strongest candidate and will pulll quite a bit from Santorum even in Central PA.

Pennachio will be lucky to poll 20% in downtown Philly.

[Mummyman]

11. Why Casey?

I still haven't figured out why a lot of people think that Casey is the stronger candidate. He doesn't hold many of my beliefs, and I find him rather boring. Would some Casey supporters let me know what exactly they like about him?

[...of J.Temperance]

14. Casey's the stronger candidate because he's a Mainstream Democrat

Casey's a Mainstream Moderate Democrat, he's the stronger candidate because people can see that he's got the ability to beat Santorum.

You say that Casey doesn't hold many of your beliefs...but he'd be better than Santorum who doesn't hold ANY of your beliefs. Think about that.

[Mummyman]

16. Pennacchio's better

Yes, and if Casey becomes the nominee, I will vote for him. But that doesn't mean I have to support him in the primary.

Chuck Pennacchio holds ALL of my beliefs.

[...of J.Temperance]

25. Okay, support Pennacchio in the primary on principle

I'm glad that in the November election you'd support Casey...because as you can see above, Casey is on 67% and Pennacchio is on 5%.

It's important that we get Santorum's scalp, he is completely repulsive, both as a politician and as a human being. Yuk!!

[...of J.Temperance]

13. Casey currently has a 20% plus lead over Santorum...

So yes, he doesn't have enough support amongst the true Democrats :eyes:

I'm about WINNING, and winning in any way we can. I'm not bothered about the "purist" set, you know that's the people who have to have a candidate that they agree with on 100% of the issues.

If I agree with a candidate on 60% of the issues and they can win...then I'll support them.

Santorum would beat Pennacchio like a drum...Casey will beat Santorum like a drum.

To win, you need to expand the base, you don't win by preaching to the choir, given the choice of Casey getting rid of Santorum, then the majority of the choir on election day are going to vote for Casey.

So you need to reach out to swing voters, to expand your lead, you need to reach out to Independents and moderate Republicans and get them to vote for you as well...and Casey is going to be able to do that.

On Edit: Dammit spelling error.

[Mummyman]

15. I'm about winning too!

But why do you think he'll win? Because of poll numbers? Because the Democrats say so? We all know how those things worked out in the past.

I don't mean to sound like a jerk, and if you actually like Casey and support him, then go for it. But I'm sick to death of Democrats moaning and groaning about candidates that don't stand up for what they believe in and being Republican-lite and all that crap, and then when it comes down to it, they support the weakest candidate because they think he's the most "electable." Well John Kerry was supposed to be the most electable as well, and look where we're at now.

So I just wonder when Democrats are going to learn their lesson. They go on and on about wanting a candidate that stands up for them and what they believe in, but when that candiate comes along, they support the party's choice. Not because they like him, but because they think he can win.

[...of J.Temperance]

7. I'm

Staunchly pro-choice as well, but I agree with you. I have no trouble with Bob Casey Jr. in the Senate, he'll give us a vote on a variety of issues, so because of that I'm willing to put aside that he's pro-life. Bob Casey Jr. will be 100% better than Rick Santorum.

In Tennessee, I know that Van whatshisname is thinking of running. Prior to Bill Frist, this seat was ours. Even if the Republicans pick a moderate, I think Harold Ford Jr. can do this...darn, I'm even thinking of volunteering to work on his campaign, that's how much I like Harold Ford Jr.

[tx_dem41]

10. Go for it, OJT...

send me good Memphis BBQ during the campaign! :)

[...of J.Temperance]

12. Okay...I'll get a deal

With the Memphis BBQ crowd :)

[tx_dem41]

17. Now you're my Memphis BBQ and....

Steak and Kidney Pie connection. :)

[...of J.Temperance]

21. Gosh

I'm honored :) Memphis BBQ, Steak and Kidney Pie and Oreille De Cochon stuffed with Boudin connection!!

You're simply my Shiner connection!!

[Clark2008]

33. The work that needs to be done is in East Tennessee, not Memphis

over in West Tennessee.

Ford's got that side of the state on a lock.

You'll need to come visit the Smokies side of the state and convince some of these paelo-conservatives out here how bad the Republicans have gotten.

[...of J.Temperance]

36. East Tennessee

What would you say that their big issues are? Issues that we could talk to them about, what interests them?

[tn-guy]

39. One other wild card

Another wild card in the Tennessee race will be what happens with the "Tennessee Waltz" corruption case.

Ford's uncle is a state senator who has been indicted for taking bribes in exchange for legislation. If that case is big in the news during the campaign it will hurt. Too many people will only hear "Ford.....corrupt" without separating the uncle from the nephew.

[belpejic]

27. Totally with you

I'm strongly pro-choice as well, but Casey is kicking ass and I can find enough areas of agreement with him that I can move beyond his ideas about reproduction. Let's get a majority in the Senate -- if we can do so Casey's position on abortion becomes moot. I say all of this as a former PA resident who is still very interested in state politics, not to mention sports (Deity, please give us guidance on the Iggles and Phillies).

Besides, a ham sandwich is better than Ricky Man-on-Dog.

[...of J.Temperance]

29. Yes

You've got it right :)

:toast:

[Clark2008]

32. Bob Corker

However, the most recent polling has Ford beating him.

:hi:

Edited to add: I don't have the link to that poll bookmarked on my work computer, so you may have to go to www.fordfortennessee.com to see it.

[NJ Democrats]

34. I agree that we will win both seats.

Casey and Ford in '06!

[election_2004]

35. It's disheartening that everyone is overlooking Missouri

Claire McCaskill is a great candidate, and Jim Talent is a boob.

[...of J.Temperance]

37. McCaskill could pick that Missouri seat up for us I agree...Talent only

Beat Senator Carnahan by 1%. So yes, I think that Talent is vulnerable. I also think that John Ensign is vulnerable in Nevada...and Mike DeWine is vulnerable in Ohio and Paul Hackett is a superb candidate.

[election_2004]

40. I agree about Ohio

But I think National Democrats seem too quickly inclined to write off Missouri.

[patrioticliberal]

42. Of course they are. Weasels

[deadparrot]

38. Plus, everyone hates Baby Blunt,

which could depress Republican turnout throughout the state.

[patrioticliberal]

43. And he and his father both received money from Abramoff

[MrBenchley]

44. I'd love to see McCaskill take that seat

Earlier this year, polls showed just 36% of voters in the Show Me state wanted Talent back in office.....

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2005/04/mosen_jim_talen.php

[election_2004]

45. Talent isn't very charismatic

And he has none absolutely NOTHING for Missouri; he's simply filling space, waiting for a leadership position in the GOP Caucus.