nickshepDEM's 2006 Senate Analysis.

[nickshepDEM]

Ranked from most competitive to least competitive.


1. PA (See the polls and the incumbents (Santorum) desperate plea for debates.)

2. OH (DeWine's major problem lies with his base. Hackett and Brown are both good candidates as the polls have shown. Id prefer Hackett because of his crossover appeal.)

3. MN (Open Seat. Im not impressed with Klobuchar. Its ashame AG Mike Hatch wants to be governor.)

4. NJ (Menendez has the money, the political tilt of NJ, and incumbency on his side, but he's in no way out of the dark. Kean is the type of republican who can compete and win in the North East. His last name doesnt hurt either.)

5. MO (We recruited a good candidate in Claire McCaskill. See the polls.)

6. RI (See: Chris Cillizza's analysis.)

7. MD (Depending on the democratic candidate this race has the potential to move way up or possibly drop off the list. Cardin is a solid candidate as shown in his poll numbers. He's the least known top tier candidate in the race, yet he has the best head to head numbers. Being a jewish version of Paul Sarbanes doesnt exactly hurt either. Mfume on the other hand has character problems that would be hard to over come.)

8. MT (Burns is knee deep in scandal. I doubt anyone would deny that. Depending on the type of capaign his challenger runs this one could fall off the list or move up a notch or two. Populism works in MT (See: Gov. Brian Schweitzer). I like Tester in this race.)

9. FL (Nelson should have lost his seat in '06. Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Tom Gallagher, Gen. Tommy Franks. All have one thing in common, they could have knocked off Bill Nelson. But as it stands now the Republicans will be stuck with a lackluster candidate in Katherine Harris. See: the polls and her inability to keep a campaign staff together. No one wants to be a part of her sinking ship. The good news for the dem's is, she's like 40 points ahead in the republican primary.)

10. MI (Ill probably catch a little flack for this one, but I truely believe Stabenow and Gov. Granholm are more vulnerable then their poll numbers show. MI is ripe for an anti-incumbent election. The economy is bad and the voters will be looking for someone to blame. Will the MI democrats be able to push it off on Bush? Or will it fall back on them? Even more good news for the Republicans, Oakland County Sheriff Michael J. Bouchard is back in. That means no crazy right-wing minister problems for the GOP.)

[BamaLefty]

1. Thanks

Here's my take:

We win...

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, New Jersey, Missouri, Maryland, Florida, and Michigan

We lose...

Rhode Island & Montana

[wiley]

2. Great. Hope you're right.

:toast:

[joegodfather88]

3. PA resident to verify

Santorum will be beaten soundly by at least a 15% spread. He sucks anymore and no one around here is buying his ultra-conservative views. He spoke at my school about a year ago and even my moderate Republican History teacher hates the guy. He lost all his support by blasting homosexuals, single mothers, and sucking Bush's dick for tuition money for his kids b/c although Santorum keeps a small residence outside of Pittsburgh, his kids go to a cyber school and he spends 95% of his time in Virginia and D.C. Does he truly represent PA? Hell no.

[nickshepDEM]

4. I sure hope so. Ive heard he's really on the offensive though.

He and outside 527's are apparently running ad's around the clock. Apparently he's now one of the strongest supporters of Social Security.

[JNelson6563]

5. Granholm will have harder time than Stabenow

And rightfully so. Stabenow has better attended her base.

Julie

[Idioteque]

6. Why does Tennessee never make these lists?

Every poll I've seen has Harold Ford in the lead.

[Doctor_J]

8. They voted against Gore,

a native son and probably the most qualified man ever to run for president.

[Doctor_J]

7. Any chance of Schweitzer running in MT?

HOw are his approval ratings as Gov? Does he want to be Senator? If he does, would he win?