Obama in 08/Eric Zorn

[Ryan11]

Zorn is a reasonably respected journalist in Chicago. This is one of the most common-sense postings on the possibility of an 08 run for Obama I've read.

Zorn on Obama

I think his following points (which he elaborates on in the post) are especially relevant and directed at the criticisms Obama receives:


1. He can't be sure when the bloom will fade.

Sure, Obama is a huge celebrity now, an eloquent, charismatic embodiment of the best the Democratic Party can offer.

But The Next Big Thing multiplied by Overexposure plus Time equals Yesterday's News.

Momentum like he has now is a powerful commodity, and there's no guarantee--not even much chance--that he'll still have anything like it in 2012.


5. A long voting record in Congress has a way of muddying the track for presidential hopefuls.

We're often reminded that, though many have tried, only two men in history--Warren G. Harding, in 1921, and John F. Kennedy, in 1961--have moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.

A big reason seems to be that the legislative process demands significant compromises and yes/no votes on often complicated proposals--all of which opponents then twist, chop into misleading sound bites and throw back in your face during campaigns.



All I would add is that not announcing, or even appearing to be interested in announcing at this point is a great benefit. Frontrunner status in primary campaigns can be a serious kiss of death. Obama's Hopefund is trucking along splendidly, and he's courting some serious backers. Why not?

I think the real concern here is the politics. From the press he's received recently, he seems to be promoting:

-Healing divisions (a la convention speech)
-Security (His trip to Russia/abroad, speeches at Council on Foreign Relations)
-Family Values (ostensibly an area the GOP would target... They'd try to paint him as too left, but as Zorn comments, he's been rather centrist on gay marriage and sex on TV... take that as you will.)

Don't forget he wouldn't have to deal with any of the "I voted for before I voted against" it crap. I never understand that debate... Democrats have either taken too long to simply say they voted for it based upon faulty intelligence, or haven't been clear enough about it. A no-vote might be a serious boon come campaign season, but that remains to be seen.

I see him as a candidate that could be very palatable to moderates, without compromising or triangulating horribly on central progressive ideals. He's charasmatic as hell, and seems to come without the baggage a lot of candidates bring that we're kicking around now. The only thing that people really get him is the lack of executive experience. Meh. See what a MBA graduate/governor gets you?

[bluestateguy]

1. He's not ready

I like him a lot, but he's still a little green. I think 2012 or 2016 is a little better bet for him.

[Ryan11]

2. Too Green? There's more to it.

Did you read Zorn's reasons why a 2012/2016 run could be detrimental? I have to agree that this popularity isn't guaranteed to last that long. And there's no long list of votes and compromises that can be spun horribly in the campaign.

I'm not sure I understand the whole ultra-green thing. I think in presidential campaign politics we can really see how being able to deliver a consistent and powerful message is a great benefit. Obama showed he could do that, in his first major national exposure nonetheless, to great effect.

[SCDem]

7. I hear Zorn and I agree on some of his points just not Obama in '08 yet

I think Obama should run for governor. Stayin in the senate will hurt his chances of becoming POTUS. But I think he should get more experience by being gov.

[hwmnbn]

3. He is an impressive politician....

and very attractive to most people. I'll keep an open mind about his candidacy and defer to his judgement.

He has much local grass roots support and I believe he could garner that type of national support ala Dean. He is a major draw already around the country.

If his inexperience is a drawback, I'd say his intellect and honesty can overcome that.

BTW, welcome to DU. :hi:

[TomClash]

4. I was on the floor during his eloquent convention speech

and I like him but don't underestimate his greatest obstacle - the color of his skin.

Then again - he's giving an Iraq speech at the Chicago CFR on Wednesday. Let's see what kind of reception it gets.

[acmavm]

5. The hysteria over 2008 is getting more ridiculous by the day.

.

[Ryan11]

6. On contributing...or not to "Hysteria"

I understand your sentiment. (And thanks by the way, hwmnbn, for the welcome) I've been around DU long enough to read enough candidate promotion/knocking for a decade's worth of elections.

However, that wasn't my purpose in discussing Obama's prospects.

I was looking to start a substantive discussion about his positives and negatives, and compare him to Democratic options rationally. I want to be real about what it will take to win in 06, as well as 08. I think a discussion about message over politics or vice-versa, or winning/losing traits isn't a bad one to have.

I agree with hwmnbn about the grassroots-support point. But I think what is equally impressive is, as described in the article that's linked off of Zorn's post, the fact Obama is garnering a lot of attention from people that matter. Warren Buffet, Hollywood elite (although that influence is debatable), and even senior Senators like Byrd (no pun intended!) are looking to jump his bandwagon because of the adulation and support he's receiving.

I know a lot of people say it's undue, or at least, he hasn't done enough to prove it...but every day he gives speeches as he has in front of the Council on Foreign Relations (Chicago and nationally), and stays in the spotlight, it's a boon to Democrats. That he espouses core progressive values while doing so should (I should think) be a very persuasive reason for a lot of members of this community to like what they see. I feel like a lot of the candidates that will be running in the primary are very, very centrist. I like the recent debate Obama has raised about how American's will respond to a clearly progressive message if it's grounded in practical solutions and good values. The person that delivers that message, though, needs to be worth listening to. I feel like Clinton, Kerry, etc. have that going against them in a way with all of the issues surrounding the Iraq war/etc.

---"I also agree that it is the job of Democratic elected officials to help shape public opinion, and not just respond passively to opinion thats been aggressively shaped by the Republicans PR machinery. I am simply suggesting, based on my experience, that people will respond to a powerfully progressive agenda when its couched in optimism, pragmatism and our shared American ideals."

-http://obama.senate.gov/blog/051020-thanks_for_the_feedback/index.html#more">Obama's Blog message

[Jersey Ginny]

8. He ought to consider running for governor first

I don't know IL politics, but like Corzine has done in NJ, success at being governor (or not as we know) show an ability to lead. Being in congress does not show leadership and all the votes are fodder for spin.

[Ryan11]

9. Just because Clinton did it that way...

Being an Illinois governor has proven hazardous to politician's health...

Aside from Illinois' politics, though, it seems like this is an argument both refuted by Zorn's points, and by practicality's sake. If he's got the message and momentum to capture the primaries, his relative lack of Senate votes could prove useful if he:

1. Goes up against another Republican Senator (who will definitely have a longer track record)

or

2. Goes against a Republican governor who would both have a long track record of failures (because rare is the Governor who goes unscathed) as well as less notoriety. Obama is better known, I would think (though I can't prove) than almost any other Republican Governor save Jeb or possibly Pataki. I don't know if I can even name many more.


Worked for JFK.

[warrens]

10. Interesting

I would not go for the "too green" thing. He has a remarkable advantage right now (including two REALLY CUTE KIDS) and is not as young as he looks. He's extremely capable, has a lot more experience as an organizer and state senator than most people realize, and he's extremely bright.

[Clark2008]

11. Too bad he wouldn't flip one red state...

sadly because of either the color of his skin or the fact that he'll be perceived as another elitist because he's a Chicagoian (read: "Yankee")

I really am tired of my fellow red-staters (and I'll be marrying a "Yankee" in January), but I have to explain the truth to the DUers who aren't exposed to red states too often. :(

[Ryan11]

12. Interesting, eloquent speech today

...and definitely a lot more palatable than H. Clinton's stance on the issue. It's as though she didn't even pay attention to what Murtha's plan actually said.

[zulchzulu]

13. I'm thinking Obama in 2012

After President Kerry decides to not run again in 2012 and give someone else a chance, Obama would gladly and easily win.