44 States above 50% Disapprove of Bush. Channeling TruthIsAll. AMF Bush!

[autorank]

Begin TruthIsAll Channeling session:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StatePOTUS1105SortbyState.htm">SURVEY USA
Bush's overall 11-poll average rating on election day was 48.5%.
His current rating is 37%.
That's an 11.50% drop.

Now look at the current state approval rating chart.
Focus on the 36-40% rating group.
These were the Battleground states.

If we add 11.5% to the state approval rating, we are probably very close to
the true Bush 2004 vote. Therefore...

It's clear from the pre-election polls, exit polls and Bush ratings that Kerry won OH, FL and NM.
It's very likely that he also won CO, NV and IA.
And if he didn't win, he came very close in VA, AR, AZ and MO.

BOTTOM LINE:
Kerry needed Ohio OR Florida to win the presidency.
He won BOTH.
Apparently, he doesn't think he won either one.

Anyway, it's a moot point.
Kerry is not the president.

The president is Al Gore.

State Graph:


End of TruthIsAll Channeling Session

Here is my sadistic delight.

44 of 50 States above 50% disapprove

02 Above 70%
19 Above 60%
23 Above 50%

Will your state be a winner!!!
StateDisapprove Derby. Will your state be a winner!!!
73% Rhode Island
70% New York
69% Delaware
69% Vermont
67% Illinois
67% Massachusetts
67% New Jersey
65% California
65% Connecticut
65% Maryland
64% Michigan
63% Iowa
63% Ohio
62% Maine
62% New Hampshire
62% Pennsylvania
62% Wisconsin
61% Florida
61% Minnesota
60% Missouri
59% Nevada
59% Oregon
59% Virginia
58% Arizona
58% Colorado
58% Hawaii
58% New Mexico
58% Washington
57% Arkansas
57% Kentucky
57% North Carolina
57% South Carolina
55% Tennessee
55% West Virginia
54% Montana
53% Indiana
53% Kansas
53% North Dakota
53% South Dakota
52% Texas
51% Georgia
51% Louisiana
50% Alaska
49% Oklahoma
48% Mississippi
45% Wyoming

[kansasblue]

1. aren't you missing a few..... Nebraska.?

[autorank]

2. The cut-off was 50%. Nebraska just has to work harder;)

Just click on the Survey USA link - 48% Disappprove Nebraska. Good but could do 3 points better.

Keep up the good work.

[Land Shark]

3. New Jersey is interesting, a dark dark blue at 26-30%

and yet there were all those pre-2004 election rumors that New Jersey was "in play". New jersey also ended up having one of the highest national incidences of problem reports to the Election incident Reporting System (EIRS), with 1,509 documented incidents during the general election of 2004
see
<https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ED04>

[autorank]

4. New Jersey Rocks, so does your link! Thanks for sharing. n/t

[fearnobush]

14. Gore won Jersey by 17%, Officially Kerry won it by 7%. Reality is

Kerry really won NJ alot closer to Gore's tally. The Pukes did think they had a chance here, but I doubt it was an honest chance. I know several people who were refused provisional ballots when reject from their polling places of many years.

By the way excellent info. Here is a typical example of the knuckle draggers here in Jersey:

Middlesex County

Voter exited the polling place. When he did, he was approached by a man who asked him who he voted for, when he responded the man slapped him in the head.

Personally, I would have beat the shit out of that Repuke.

Oh, here is an other Gem.

About 50 students who tried to vote at the Lincoln School were turned down becuase they were not on the list. They reported it to the ACLU NJ who in turn called us.

Ohh, and this one is priceless and typical:

Touch screen machine went into booth to find that 4 republican candidates were pre-selected.

Yes Middlesex county had Diebold.

[NinetySix]

5. Just out of curiosity, what happened to TIA?

I followed his analyses carefully, both during the run-up to the election, as well as afterward, when it was becoming increasingly evident that the fix was in. I'm no statistician, but what I was able to understand of his argument seemed convincing to me.

The last I recall, there were several others trying to discredit his work, at which point it became too abstruse for me to follow. Was he tombstoned during the heated (and extremely esoteric) debates on methodology?

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Some basic flaws in that analysis

You can't just add percentage of approval rating lost and assert what happened last year at a ballot box. That's nonsense. It's like assessing a power rating change for a football team over a given period and trying to backfit game results.

For one thing, and this is never understood on DU or anywhere in the media, Bush's approval rating right now under identical circumstances would be quite a bit higher if he were actually running in a campaign against a Democrat. That's simply a fact. Many of the respondents in those approval rating polls are expressing disappointment but that hardly means they would vote Democratic if an option were presented, or that they wouldn't respond differently if a polarizing campaign were underway like last year. There's essentially nothing at stake so the true opinions of the soft GOP supporters come to the surface. Stick them in a booth and they're not pulling or punching or Diebolding for John Kerry or any of our nominees.

Bush has probably lost a net 2-4 percent right now, in terms of November 2004. Many of those states you mentioned would flip but hardly an Arizona, Virginia, Arkansas, or Missouri. Colorado and Florida would be extremely close. Just my opinions, obviously, but I study the numbers and don't overreact.

I completely agree Gore was the rightful winner in 2000. But he would have been under dire peril last year, no doubt blamed for 9/11 and with public restlessness since our side would have been in charge for three straight terms.

[autorank]

11. Future "facts"...past "facts" that never took place. All righty then...

Future facts, a new concept: "Bush's approval rating right now under identical circumstances would be quite a bit higher if he were actually running in a campaign against a Democrat. That's simply a fact.":rofl: News of the future today. Sitting presidents don't get bonus points for not running and, I'll tell you this, if he were in a campaign right now, he'd get creamed. Try to find someone around here or anywhere else that would disagree with that.

Past facts, that never took place: "I completely agree Gore was the rightful winner in 2000. But he would have been under dire peril last year, no doubt blamed for 9/11 and with public restlessness since our side would have been in charge for three straight terms." Psychic hotline. Had Gore been elected, there would have been an excellent chance that 911 would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED. He actually read memos and paid attention to national security issues. He was relentless about detail. He was intelligent. 911 taking place under Gore is a strange assumption.

You have exactly one fact, one point, that is correct: Gore was the rightful winner in 2000.

[retread]

15. Gore would not have been blamed for 9/11. If he had been President

9/11 would not have happened!!

[autorank]

23. Amen! n/t

[petgoat]

29. 9/11 Would not have happened under Gore. Here's why:

Clinton had ordered the CIA to kill Osama (but they farmed the job out
to reluctant tribesmen). Sandy Berger on 11/7/00 had asked the
Pentagon for commando raids on the al Qaeda camps. Richard Clarke by
12/00 had created a plan to "roll back" al Qaeda through military
operations and disrupting their finances. Had Gore been elected, these
plans would have started moving before January and then, expecting
reprisals, our nation would have been on alert. Gore would have paid
attention to the warnings from 11 countries and three FBI offices.

Under Bush, FBI investigations of suspected terrorist financiers were
shut down, warnings were ignored. Condi claimed that no one could
imagine aircraft as weapons, but at the G8 summit in Genoa in 7/01 the
Italians installed SAMs at the airport after warnings that Osama
planned an aerial assault. Bush ignored the "Bin Laden Detremined to
Strike in US" memo, but he had 24 hour air cover in Crawford while he
did it. Under Bush, Osama reportedly met with CIA agent Larry
Mitchell in 7/01 says Le Figaro. Dr. Terry Callaway, who allegedly
treated Osama at the American Hospital in Dubai at that time, has
refused to deny the report.

[autorank]

30. Thanks petgoat. This is the perfect argument. n/t

[kster]

7. Kick n recommended.nt

[TheGunslinger]

8. Fixed link >>>

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StatePOTUS1105SortbyState.htm

[autorank]

12. Thank you very much Gunslinger--Survey USA Link above!!! n/t

[texpatriot2004]

9. I think this is a terrific post. I think Kerry won all of those states...

why does Kerry not think so? Very interesting truth is all comment about that not being relevant because Gore is the President...is that because Gore was the last duly elected President?

So, about the disapproval derby - are these the current disapproval numbers for Chumpy (aka *)?

[paineinthearse]

10. 5th

We can say "TIA"?

[autorank]

13. Welcome to the House of "paine"...DU's most prolific Truth Teller n/t

[paineinthearse]

21. I'm on a 12 step program

Trying to cut back. Do these pants make my ass look big?

[tgnyc]

16. Is Utah not the weirdest fucking state in the Union?

Mormons, polygamy, a whiter-than-white population, and undying love for the retard in the Oval Office.

[klook]

18. No shit.

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho - Axis of Idiocy.

[autorank]

24. What about Salt Lake City? The mayor ran an anti Bush protest.

Is he still around or was he shipped off to one of those wonderful "therapy schools" in the Utah hills.

Some states will never go Democratic or top the magical 50% required to hit the list.

I think I'll make a monthly post from SurveyUSA (and I'll get the link right) with the 50% or more anti Bush Sweep Stakes -- tie it the multi state Mega Millions Lottery.

[AtLiberty]

17. Thanks, autorank

I suspect the disapproval numbers are higher with some Americans still in denial.

[autorank]

25. Great point AtLiberty--factor in "denial" -- up them all 10%

Idaho and Utah still won't make it:rofl:

[ThatsMyBarack]

19. Wow, Texas is Blue!

Guess they found out how phony * is as a "Texan", not to mention as a "president." Right?

:hippie:

[autorank]

26. I think they found that out in 2004. Not that Kerry won it but that was

a screwey outcome down there.

Texas will go blue in 2-4 years and then it's pay back time.

[RazzleDazzle]

20. where do you get this?

If we add 11.5% to the state approval rating, we are probably very close to the true Bush 2004 vote.

:wtf:

[freedomfries]

22. I love this blue map!

thanks for posting autorank!
May all our dreams come blue!

[autorank]

27. Thank you! We'll have "Blue Man" for President stickers soon n/t

[Uncle Joe]

28. No fair, it only takes five people

in Rhode Island to disapprove to kick the ratio up to 73%.:)

[tritsofme]

31. What's this TruthIsAll you keep posting threads about?

I'm 99.343424343% sure I remember something about his banning...