Iowa 2008.

[nickshepDEM]

Vote for who you think WILL WIN, not who you want to win. An explanation why would be nice too.

Right now I think Edwards is the frontrunner to knock down Hillary in Iowa 2008.

P.S. I left out Vilsack because its pretty obvious he would carry Iowa if he decided to run.

[Kahuna]

1. None of these people are bad enough to win in Iowa.

nt

[venable]

4. Edwards easily

given the fact that he was a handful of votes from winning it in 2004, and that was with zero media coverage....all the coverage going to Kerry and Dean.

Take that same favorability amongst the voters, and his ability to inspire them, and add the name recognition and media coverage he would bring into another race, and he walks away with Iowa.

[ISUGRADIA]

17. I question whether Edwards will win easily in 06

and he was getting a hell of a lot of media coverage in state especiually after the DSM Register endorsed him.

[spooky3]

30. that occurred just a few days before the caucuses, right?

that wasn't much time

[venable]

34. The endorsement was just before the caucuses

and definitely gave some bump, but he put himself in the position to make a serious run at victory by connecting with, and inspiring a good many voters while he had virtually zero coverage.

The endorsement came out of the blue, and helped, no doubt.

[napi21]

2. I still think the Governors have a better chance.

I think a lot of Dems are tired of the Dems running Washington insiders. I think this campaign will be a battle between Warner and Richardson.

[Ignacio Upton]

3. Warner, assuming Kaine wins on the 8th

If Kaine can become Governor of Virginia, it shows that Warner's legacy has been approved by the voters, and that he has coattails that he can use in the future.

[Zynx]

5. Warner is a very "Iowa" sort of candidate. He could probably whomp

Hillary there. He is also a meticulous organizer and that's what it takes to win Iowa.

[DemDogs]

8. Been to Iowa?

The most liberal of the voters are the ones who go to caucus. Warner has zero chance in Iowa.

[nickshepDEM]

12. Heard of Howard Dean?

[emulatorloo]

14. yes, the centrist former governor of Vermont, currently our glorious DNC

LEADER!!!!!!!!!

[Zynx]

29. Indeed. Kerry and Edwards ran decidedly to the right of Dean.

And guess what? They whomped him.

[ISUGRADIA]

36. I lived in Iowa for most of my life. I would not count him out.

Carter 76, 80, Mondale 84, Gephardt 88, Kerry 04

I don't think any of these were the most liberal in the races of the time, Carter and Gephardt especially compared to others. Warner could compete and connect but the most liberal candidates in the race don't often win in Iowa.

[Donna Zen]

6. Let's see:

Hillary has already feted the entire Iowa delegation at her home in DC. She will have every union and democratic organization in her back pocket. And need we talk about money? Bill will be turning every event into a media circus, and of course the levers within the party will be slapped down heavily. And need we talk about money?

I don't know why we are even bothering with primaries this year.

As Donna Brazile has said: Hillary is running and every Democrat better get behind her.

I'm not from Iowa. But I know in my heart that I will never vote for a pro-war Dem. I've been that route before and all results in is Democrats who don't have to care about their base never mind their country.

[DemDogs]

9. Hillary = zero unions

Count on it.

[Donna Zen]

10. Your lips to God's ears

I hope you're correct.

What about the Firemen?

[William769]

7. ...

[IndianaGreen]

11. Other: The unnamed antiwar candidate

Dennis Kucinich, if he runs!

[upi402]

13. Edwards, but lawyers have been satanized

RightWingnuts have made all lawyers into baby eating stanists from H E double hockey sticks.

[emulatorloo]

15. until they are indicted -- then a "Democrat Lawyer" becomes a savior

EOM

[Catchawave]

16. As of Today, Edwards will win.....

but I think once Mark Warner leaves Va Gov office soon, he'll give the Edwards team a run for the DNC Money :) I see an Edwards/Warner ticky in my crystal ball !

[Clark2008]

18. I hope the good people of Iowa remember that

Edwards did not help Kerry flip one red state.

Do-over!

[nickshepDEM]

19. No one votes for the VP.

The last time a VP had an impact on the Presidential Election was 1960 when JFK carried Texas thanks to LBJ.

[Clark2008]

21. Oh-OK.

Whatever.

:eyes:

If you don't think he wasn't picked to try to bring in some Southern states, then I'd like to know why you think he was picked?

I could go on about reasons why I think he was picked - and none of them have to do with his experiene, but I'd like to hear why YOU think he was tapped.

But, as is my constant lament: we need to flip some red states and I just don't think Edwards will do well in the border-line red states. Democratic personal injury attorneys with no foreign policy experience don't fly too well in those states. I'm sorry. It's just a fact. Many swing voters here and in neighboring states would see him as rather "wimpish," whether that's a fair assessment or not.

[nickshepDEM]

22. I dont care why Kerry picked him.

I never expected Kerry to carry any southern states. Wait, WV was a maybe, but after that it was slim pickings. I cant believe people actually believed Edwards would bring in NC or any other state south of Maryland. He wasnt even that popular in his home state. Hade he run for re-election, he probably would have lost.

My point was, no one votes for the VP. I dont know of a single voter who went to the polls in 2004 and said to their self, gee, I think Ill vote for Kerry because of that Edwards guy. He's great. Great southern appeal.

The last time a VP seriosuly impacted a presidential election was in 1960 -- LBJ. And that was when Democrats were competitive in the south.

[nickshepDEM]

23. Actually Im exagerating.

VP's do have an impact, but it really is a small one. 2-3% at most in their homesate, and after that you'll be hard up to find someone voting for a ticket soley because of the VP.

[NCarolinawoman]

33. I think Cheney helped Bush get elected.

People knew that Bush had little foreign policy experience, so they felt re-assured with Cheney there. Of course Cheney went on to be the actual "President".

[venable]

35. Edwards was not given the chance

to flip a red state. I have no interest in bashing Kerry, but good lord, did you follow the campaign...John Kennedy or Thomas Jefferson Ben Franklin, etc could not have flipped a state that was so set to mobilize against Kerry. Face it, the top of the ticket played into Rove's plan like a sap.

It astonishes me that people otherwise so bright and analytical can not see that Edwards was chosen because Kerry had no choice but to do so, given his support within the rank and file of the party, and that Kerry DID NOT USE HIM.

Do not blame Edwards for the Red States. It doesn't make sense.

[Czolgosz]

20. Am I the only one who thinks Hillary won't run? Won't she ultimately be

obliged to pledge that she will not run for president in the course of her senate reelection campaign? If she doesn't I think her senate reelection bid will suffer.

[Donna Zen]

24. She's already running for President

n/t

[Czolgosz]

32. But doncha remember people saying the same thing in 1999?

[Jai4WKC08]

25. I don't think she's gonna run

I'm not real certain, but that's my gut feeling. Notoriously unreliable. ;)

But if she makes a promise to finish her senate term, I don't think it'll mean much. Bill Clinton promised to finish his last governor's term, and he broke it. Happens all the time. Usually the home state doesn't really mind, since they like having their favorite son (or daughter) making the big-time.

[Guaranteed]

26. It's kind of surprising to me that there are some here who think

that Kerry will actually win Iowa.

Kerry's an alright guy, but....he, honestly, and we should all admit this, will NOT be in the 2008 race.

People who are holding onto that can forget. Just being honest.

[election_2004]

27. Warner, if he runs....

He'll have the time to devote to making the rounds early in Iowa, and as a Southern Governor he'll appeal to rural voters. That could cause the urban/city Iowans to give Warner serious consideration.

[Jai4WKC08]

28. Vilsack

Assuming he runs, of course. I tend to think he will.

But if he does run...

Since he probably won't do that well overall, and since everyone will expect him to win his home state, whoever comes in second will be treated as if he or she had won.

I think that could very well be Clark. He does extremely well in the small open forums that are typical of the Iowa pre-caucus build-up, and he's the kind of guy who appeals to folks in the fly-over states.

Also Arkansas isn't that far away from Iowa. Technically a southern state, but close enough that most mid-westerners will be willing to accept him as one of their own.

[PhilipShore]

31. Wesley Clark is a retired four-star US Army general and a liberal Democrat

The war will still be going on. The liberals, will not have a peacenik candidate with flowers in their hair-- but rather a liberal General.

[Jai4WKC08]

37. Welcome to DU!!

:hi:

Always great to see a new Clarkie here. :patriot:

[Tesha]

38. Someone whom Republicans prefer.

After all, that's who votes in Iowa (and NH); real Republicans and
Democrats who are mostly Republican-oriented.

Tesha