Dem Kaine Ahead in Polls - Does that mean he will lose, like Kerry?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html


(Kaine Second Percentage #)
RCP Average (10/23-11/3) 42.0% 46.0% 3.7% Kaine +4.0
Mason-Dixon (11/2-3) 44% 45% 4% Kaine +1
Rasmussen (11/2) 46% 49% 2% Kaine +3
Roanoke College (10/23-30) 36% 44% 5% Kaine +8

[texpatriot2004]

1. It's the same voting system, right? nm

[Ignacio Upton]

2. Can we stop being so fatalistic

Does Diebold control Virginia? I'm not sure. But I don't think it does us any good to be worried too much. Polls in September showed Kilgore ahead, and now they are going in the other direction. Voters are also pissed off about that commercial Kilgore ran argueing that Kaine would not execute Hilter if he had the chance. Bush visiting will hopefully not have the same positive impact that it did for Republicans in 2002, 2003, and 2004. This time Bush's job approval numbers are in the 30's , and in the 40's in Virginia.

[justiceischeap]

3. I know in my area of VA it's very likely

We have touch screen voting...

[Ignacio Upton]

4. Don't use RCP as a source

It's a GOP website that has bent Presidential Polls in the past to help Bush.

[tritsofme]

16. How have they bent polls?

It is run a Republican, but they are a great resource.

Averaging available polls together is not bending.

[Ignacio Upton]

17. They created the PERCEPTION last year that Bush was ahead by

landslide proportions. For example, they will include Gallup polls that were well known for sampling more Republicans than Democrats that put Bush ahead by more than 6 points. By including polls that don't add up statistically, they would produce fake "averages" of polls that showed Bush up by 4-6 points when almost every poll would show the race with 2-3 points going for both candidates.

[tritsofme]

19. Not including outliers would defeat the purpose of an average

There will be outliers on both ends, and they rightly included all polls in their average.

It would be irresponsible to select only the polls you like, to get a result that you wanted to see. I know one person who did that, he doesn't post here anymore.

[Ignacio Upton]

20. Selecting polls that go against what the majority of polls show

Is irresponsible and paint a false picture of the truth. For example, in the VA Governor's Race, Kaine is leading every poll by 1-3 points, but in one poll he is leading by 8 points. I would not include this poll in the average because it is out of the normal spectrum of the other polls.

[tritsofme]

21. Then why have an average?

Just follow a poll you know and trust.

An average of all polls smooths out the edges on both sides.

[Zynx]

5. Kaine might lose for the reason that Republicans tend to finish stronger

in the south than Democrats do. It seems that in many elections, including in Virginia, Republican strength can be understated by some polls. This may have something to do with superior GOTV drives by the religious right. There are exceptions and I hope that Kaine has a strong GOTV effort going to prevent an upset like that.

[Ignacio Upton]

6. But will the religious right be able to marshall the votes against

a Pro-Life candidate?

[Zynx]

7. That is a very interesting question.

We shall see.

[Ignacio Upton]

8. Potts is also a factor

This election will be closer than Warner made it because Kaine does not have as much appeal with rural conservatives. However, Northern Virginia is probably going bluer than before. Kaine is also in good shape because voters were turned off by Kilgore's Pro-Death Penalty ad.

(I'm honestly more concerned about the New Jersey election right now. Corzine made a gaffe last night in his debate argueing that the drinking age should be 18. I knew that he was argueing in the context of "If our soldiers go off to fight in die in Afghanistan and Iraq, then why should they not have a beer" but he is generally in favor of keeping the drinking age at 21, and could be painted by Forrester as a flip flopper or someone who wants "our children drunk."

[Zynx]

11. Corzine will be fine I'm convinced.

I think he will win by eight points as Forrester seems to be having trouble topping 41% or so in the polls. Kaine I think will win by a fraction of a percent.

[AndyTiedye]

23. It May Have Something to do With the Way Votes are Counted

[rateyes]

9. My bet is that Kaine wins....

with the same majority that Mark Warner did. Just my feeling from having lived in VA for 15 yrs. prior to moving to GA, and keeping an eye on the race. Hope I'm right. We'll see.

[Mass]

10. I hope he wins - I was impressed by him in the debate

I was expecting another Southerner making efforts to look Republican, as we have seen so many.

I saw somebody who stands clearly on the Democratic side (despite his abortion position) and is not afraid of it. That was refreshing.

[Robbins]

12. Look

Kaine Is doing better poll wise than Kerry was. Remember Bush Is In the 30's nationaly,and even In Virginia has a low approval. Plus Warner Is very popular,and he can help.

[BillZBubb]

13. My guess is Kaine will lose a close race.

The Repugs will get out the true believer voters. If this were a presidential election cycle, Kaine might win. But, off year elections see low turnout which always favors Repugs.

Since the Chimperor is doing a last minute appearance for Kilgore, this will also be played up as "proof" that Busholini is making his political comeback.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Bush winning the popular vote turned that theory on its head

Republicans were able to win the popular vote with high turnout. 2005 is also not a major election year, with neither Presidential, nor Congressional races up.

[Catchawave]

15. I really hope Kaine wins Virginia Tuesday......

but the polls could be too close, ergggghhh, and stolen.
Yoiks, not sure if I can accept a Kaine loss, knowing that the Kilgore team can jiggle the diebolds a few votes, when the Va Dem team can't get the polls far enough ahead. OY!!!!! I'm really hating politics right now.

[tritsofme]

18. Not sure I understand you comparison

Virginia 2004 Polls


Presidential Race
2004 Electoral Votes: 13 | 2000 Results: Bush 52.5, Gore 44.4, Nader 2.2 (Bush +8.1)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
SurveyUSA | 10/27-29 606 LV 4.1 51 47 - Bush +4
Times Dispatch | 10/20-26 751 LV 4.0 49 40 - Bush +9
Mason-Dixon | 10/22-10/25 625 LV 4.0 50 44 - Bush +6
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 664 LV 3.9 50 46 - Bush +4
Rasmussen | 9/14-9/27 400 LV 5.0 50 44 - Bush +6
Mason-Dixon | 9/24-9/27 625 LV 4.0 49 43 1 Bush +6
SurveyUSA | 9/21-9/23 744 LV 3.7 53 42 - Bush +11

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/va_polls.html

[emulatorloo]

22. dunno - do repugs have an Osama tape ready to roll?

EOM