Kaine to be up by 2 in new poll

[MaineDem]

Sorry I don't have a link but i was just talking with someone in Virginia and the USA Survey poll out today should have Kaine up by 2 points.

I'll see if I can find the story.

[AX10]

1. kick

It's good to see this movement in his direction. I hope he wins.

Good Luck!

:dem:

[WI_DEM]

2. Given the popularity of the Warner administration it's a wonder

why it's this close as it is.

[dolstein]

4. Well, it shouldn't be

Yes, Warner's popular, but he only received 53 percent of the vote four years ago. He was expected to win by a much larger margin.

Tim Kaine's no Mark Warner. For one thing, he's more liberal than Warner is on the death penalty and civil unions, and that has consequences in a state like Virginia. Also, Kaine isn't faring nearly as well in the southwestern parts of the state as Warner did. Warner did a much better job of building support in rural communities. Of course, he was campaigning for governor for nearly four years.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Here's a Washington Post link regarding the rural vote

I bookmarked it several weeks ago: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/19/AR2005091901680.html

After the 2001 vote, I remember being shocked how well Warner did in the rural areas.

[WI_DEM]

3. It's already out: 47-45 for Kaine

on the www.surveyusa.com site

[MaineDem]

5. Thank you... I was getting worried

I didn't want to be spreading bad data.

Thanks. :)

[Borgnine]

6. Thank GOD.

Kilgore is pathetic, and his ads are some of the ugliest, most vile examples of how low the GOP is willing to go that I've ever seen.

Virginia is an interesting case study at the moment. We're so close to becoming blue, but the ignorant rubes still populate this state aplenty.

[Zynx]

7. Virginia in a decade may be more in our column than Florida is.

Florida's electoral trend is uncertain, but Virginia's is clear.

[onenote]

8. turnout turnout turnout

The key to this election is turnout. Because Virginia elects governors in off-years, when there are no federal candidates on the ballot, turnout tends to be substantially lower than it is during years when a Presidential election or even House/Senate races are on the ballot. If the Democrats can break this pattern and get voters who support Democrats in federal elections to show up and vote for Kaine (and assuming the repugs don't break the pattern), victory is there for the taking.

onenote

[DancingBear]

9. People are pouring into NoVA

Especially into areas that are trending (or are solidly) blue.

This bodes quite well for national races, and when (not if) * screws the rest of the morans that voted for him the first time this should translate well.

The key will be the Kaine/Kilgore race. Neither one is setting the electorate on fire, and Kilgore can be counted on to capture the fundy/neanderthal southern part of VA.

If Kaine can replicate Warner's touch for grabbing some of that vote (and people WILL be voting their pocketbooks in this race - aside from the "one-issue" far right crowd) he should win.

If Kaine does not, then the blueness of VA is just a myth.

[Gin]

10. Kaine's victory will be continued forward movement for this state.

Kilgore wil be a step backward.

[formernaderite]

12. Well, the counties growing fastest happen to be

red. That's the only place people can afford to move to, The outer suburbs or exurbs.

[snowbear]

13. That doesn't mean those fast growing "red" counties...

....will still be "red" after the next election. EVEN IN VIRGINIA.

The Bush administration has such a vile, immoral, wicked, disgusting, foul STENCH to it, that I'll bet anything they'll have a profound effect on even the reddest of red locations throughout the U.S. in '06 and '08.

[nickshepDEM]

11. Great news, but this race is still far from over.

IMO, it will come down to the always important GOTV.