When will we know the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee?

[Skinner]

Obviously, we won't have an official nominee until the convention in July. But we may have a "presumptive" nominee before that time, once all of the other candidates have either dropped out or suspended their campaigns. The media would then crown one person as the "presumptive" nominee.

When do you think we will know the presumptive nominee?

For reference, here is a primary/caucus calendar:

01/19/04 - Iowa
01/27/04 - New Hampshire
02/03/04 - Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina

02/07/04 - Michigan, Washington
02/08/04 - Maine
02/09/04 - Democrats Abroad
02/10/04 - Tennessee, Virginia
02/14/04 - DC, Nevada
02/17/04 - Wisconsin
02/24/04 - Hawaii, Idaho, Utah

03/02/04 - California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont

03/08/04 - American Samoa
03/09/04 - Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

03/13/04 - Kansas
03/16/04 - Illinois
03/20/04 - Alaska, Guam, Wyoming
04/13/04 - Colorado
04/17/04 - Virgin Islands
04/27/04 - Pennsylvania

05/04/04 - Indiana, North Carolina
05/11/04 - Nebraska, West Virginia
05/18/04 - Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon
06/01/04 - Alabama, South Dakota
06/06/04 - Puerto Rico
06/08/04 - Montana, New Jersey

[terrya]

1. It will all be over after California. eom

[krkaufman]

15. Whenever the media tells us that we have

You're missing one key choice from your poll:

• Whenever the media tells us that we have
  

[ScreamingMeemie]

2. Ahhh, in a perfect world we wouldn't know until July...I am still

hoping for that outcome. Otherwise, to me it feels as if the media will have chosen our candidate.

That said, GO DEMS!!!

[krkaufman]

16. Yeah, but remember Florida 2000?

> Ahhh, in a perfect world we wouldn't know until July

Yeah, but remember Florida 2000, when all the polls kept coming out saying that "the American people are willing to wait as long as it takes, in order to know which candidate truly won Florida"?

Yet the media kept spewing the "imminent Constitutional crisis" malarkey?

[PDittie]

3. I think we will know by March 3rd n/t

[sistersofmercy]

5. I agree n/t

[arwalden]

4. Superrr... something... Super-rrrr... Oh, DAMN! What's it called?

[eissa]

6. It's a nail-biter this year

Sorry, Skinner, I didn't vote -- I honestly have no idea! We have some great candidates this year and they have been running pretty close and have strong supporters. Does anyone remember past primaries being this exciting?

[arwalden]

7. Not Enough Votes. Too Small Of A Sample. VOTE MORE. -- Kick!

[mlawson]

8. I think we know now.

I've seen 12 election cycles. This has that certain feel to it, already.

[bearfartinthewoods]

12. a month a ago, dean was da man....nowm it's kerry...next month???

who knows?

[mlawson]

14. Actually, I predicted this a year ago.

Almost to the letter. I would love to have been wrong.

[Paulie]

9. After March 16th

Because I want to Vote!!!!

And there is alot of time between now and then for the canidates to either make or break their own campaigns.

[Toucano]

10. Does anyone have a delegate reference

Of how many each state has?

Thanks in advance.

[Blue_Roses]

17. I hope this helps

http://www.democrats.org/whitehouse/delegate.html

[Toucano]

21. It does!

Why didn't I think of checking there? D'oh!

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. If Kerry wins South Carolina I'm popping champaigne

Cause it's all over but the shouting folks.

AAUUUURRRRRGGGGHHHHHHH!!!

:D

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. But Michigan will be where he gives Dean the KO punch.

[Walt Starr]

13. No matter how much the media tries to annoint a sacrifical lamb

I believe this thing will end up ion a brokered convention.

[question everything]

19. After the Feb primaries, for lack of money, mainly n/t

[Renew Deal]

20. March 2 is full of Dean friendly states

[UrbScotty]

22. I think Illinois will seal the deal. (nt)

[Renew Deal]

23. Wouldn't it be great to see the candidates campaign in Alaska and Guam?

I would love that.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

24. I'm HOPING it goes at least til super Tuesday if not beyond

I think the longer there is not an obvious candidate for Bush to bash the better it is for us even if costly. We won't have 200 million so we must reach as many people as possible and keep them engaged with a long primary process while keeping the Bush admin unfocused on a single opponent.

[sistersofmercy]

28. Excellent Point, NSMA!

Hot damn, you are so smart! :hi:

[Terwilliger]

25. You know what would be a kick??

If on Super Tuesday, Kucinich got a HUGE number of East Coast and West Coast votes!

Dean
Kucinich
Clark
Kerry
Edwards


Ahhh.....wouldn't that be sumpin'!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Let's see... California, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio... (March 2)

03/02/04 - California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont

Pretty clear this is the dam busting on that day.

[underpants]

27. As I have said before- winner on 2/10 Va. & Tenn. will get the nomination

That's my call

[question everything]

29. With the budget problems of Dean, would anyone want to change their vote?

[John_H]

30. Wisconsin will do it.

[NoPasaran]

31. April, I think

All this is idle speculation until the Virgin Islands have had their say.