Hey all Dean Supporters

[pnziii]

As the saying goes, it's not over till the fat lady sings. I still have hope for Dean. I actually like that Dean got second place. First the limelight is off him. I even noticed it in the news the last few days. The media is actually warming up to him and being kind. They seem to now be attacking Kerry. More stuff is coming out about Kerry and he will be taking a lot more heat.
I even heard a few comments like - "Kerry didn't do that much coming out of Iowa into New Hampshire, it looks like he is playing it safe and that could slow down his momentum." Or "Kerry co-opted Deans message and he's just Dean with a military record."

So before everyone declares a Kerry victory I thought I would bring up a little past history. By no means am I trying to say Dean will win because of past Primaries, I'm just pointing out that it's a long road and a lot will happen. So let's see how well everyone does on Feb. 3.

Primaries from the past…………

1st - Only two Democrats have ever won both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary. Muskie soundly beat McGovern in both, but lost favor because of his reaction to newspaper articles about his wife. I mention this because you never know what's going to happen to change people's perceptions. The other Democrat to win both was Al Gore and we won't go there. But wait what about Jimmy Carter. Actually Carter came in second in the Iowa Caucus. He lost to a candidate named Undecided.

2nd - Winning New Hampshire does not mean a ticket straight to the nomination. Here are some past results.
1972 New Hampshire: Muskie (46.4%), McGovern (37.1%), Yorty (6.1%)
1972 Front-Runner at convention: McGovern

1984 New Hampshire: Hart (37.3%), Mondale (27.9%), Glenn (12.0%)
1984 Front-Runner at convention: Mondale

1992 New Hampshire: Tsongas (33%), Clinton (24.8%), Kerrey (11.1%)
1992 Front-Runner at convention: Clinton

Notice the double digit leads. They didn't translate into nominations. In fact even the Republicans have faired the same way in recent primaries.

Republican Hew Hampshire Results

1996 Buchanan 27.2%, Dole 26.2%
1996 Front-Runner at convention: Dole

2000 McCain 48.5%, Bush 30.4%
2000 Front-Runner at convention: Bush

3rd - With six candidates the vote is thinned out. Who knows which candidate would pick up Clark or Edwards supporters as they drop out of the race. You could speculate that Edwards supporters would support Kerry, but since people pick candidates on more than just their record or message (I've know some to pick a candidate based solely on their looks) we will just have to wait and see what happens.

4th - Here are some results from 1992 so you can see how each state votes very differently, even neighbor states like Arizona and New Mexico.

Delaware: 1992
Tsongas 30.2%
Uncommitted: 29.6%
Clinton: 20.8%
Brown: 19.5%

Missouri: 1992
Clinton: 45.1%
Tsongas: 10.2%
Brown: 5.7%
Uncommitted: 39%

South Carolina: 1992
Clinton: 62.9%
Tsongas: 18.3%
Harkin: 6.6%
Brown: 6.0%

Arizona: 1992
Tsongas: 34.4%
Clinton: 29.2%
Brown: 27.5%
Harkin: 7.6%

New Mexico: 1992
Clinton: 52.9%
Brown: 16.9%
Tsongas: 6.2%
Harkin: 1.8%

North Dakota: 1992
Clinton: 46.0%
Tsongas: 10.3%
Brown: 7.5%
Harkin: 6.8%

Oklahoma: 1992
Clinton: 70.5%
Brown: 16.7%
Harkin: 3.4%

[Democrats unite]

1. God I hope Candy Crowley doesn't know how to sing!

eom

[Kira]

3. Now that's Funny!

Go Dean!!!!! Does anyone know how the polling looks in the states coming up and which states we think Dean has a chance at winning?

[Anwen]

5. LOL!!!

You're bad :D

[WI_DEM]

2. Good post

I feel the same way. Dean is still in the thick of this. He has earned delegates. He has won one (DC) come in third in one (Iowa) and came in second in one (NH). He still has millions of loyal supporters and a sound financial foundation to go ahead. I think he will have some surprises in store.

[Anwen]

4. A little perspective is nice.

I'm not giving up on Dean. He's still got some magic left in him. While all the other candidates play it safe, Dean is going to continue tellin' it like it is and gaining the respect of more and more people.

I suggest everyone help out and donate what you can in his support!

Dean is far from finished!!!

[Cha]

6. That's right Anwen!

And thanks for reminding me about good ol' Washington D.C.!

[DEM FAN]

7. Very True. It's Not Over Until Candy Crowley Has The Last Doughnut.

;-)

[JaneQPublic]

8. Dean is breaking the mold in so many ways...

...from using the Internet to "bottom-up" grassroots organization. No one should be surprised if he wins the nomination in a way that conflicts with conventional wisdom about the primary process.