I think Dean getting 4th in 3 or more of the Feb 3rd primaries is likely

[DaisyUCSB]

In AZ, NM, OK, SC, and MO I think the tide indicates that his potential advantages are far less likely to materialize after New Hampshire where they didn't in NH, and particularly IO.

Edwards or Clark have been doing very well in the polls in most of these states in recent weeks, and obviously Kerry will get another bump from his even better than expected showing in NH.

Not that that would kill him, I think he'll stick around till Michigan no matter what. And I don't mean for this to be a hostile thread in any way.

He should do good in Delaware. I just don't see a strong indicator of how even his money(which we don't know how much he has) gives him a clear advantage over the other 3. He outspent everyone in these previous primaries.

And I'm not saying that in the OVERALL primary that Clark or Edwards are in a better spot than Dean, they aren't. But the Feb 3 states alone, I think they are.

[Sean Reynolds]

1. It's really too hard to say.

We'll have to wait and see where the polls are tomorrow.

[Quixote1818]

2. I agree Dean is done

Kerry is carrying the flag for the North Eastern Democrats now it comes down to who can win the south. Here in New Mexico Dean pulled his ads and put everything into New Hampshire. We still have not seen any ads for Kerry and Edwards. Clarks ad's are going 24/7. Dean has dropped dramaticaly in the polls and is seen as unelectable now. Clark still has a tone of money to spend even beyone Feb. 3rd.

Kerry must come in second or win South Carolina or he is done. Third place there will be the big news story and he would loose his front runner status. He will be seen as someone who can't win in the south.

[On the Road]

3. It's Not Northeast Vs South

It's establishment vs nonestablishment.

Kerry and Edwards are establishment candidates. Dean and Clark are not. That's the split.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. David Broder agrees with you- article here: (Wash Post)

"John F. Kerry prevailed, Howard Dean survived...

...Kerry backers said they were pleased that Dean may appear to be his chief rival, believing that the Vermonter's appeal, as measured in exit polls, is concentrated among vehement opponents of the Iraq war and a highly educated liberal elite -- two groups that will be less prominent in states such as South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona and Michigan, which now loom on the campaign horizon.

That is emphatically the case in Missouri, the state with the largest contingent of delegates next Tuesday, party leader Roy Temple said. "If this is a two-person race between Kerry and Dean," he said, "there's not much question which way Missouri would go. People are focused on who can win and who can carry this state, and Kerry looks strong."

Also: "...The last two Democrats to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire in contested races were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000 -- and both went on to win the nomination. Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager, said that after a few more weeks of infighting, "I think Kerry sweeps them all under the rug. He has shown he can pull the party together, and I don't see any other candidate doing it."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54223-2004Jan27.html