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Edited on Fri Sep-09-05 12:46 AM by Autonomy
(I am not mentioning the blog title or providing the link yet. I'll show it later.)
President Frist Will Run as Incumbent in ‘08
With President George W. Bush’s popularity in steady decline, he has become an albatross around the neck of the Republican Party. The 2006 midterm elections for Congress are rapidly approaching, and the Republicans want more than anything right now to retain their majority. The question is surely being asked in the halls of the Capitol, “Is Bush a threat to my reelection?” For many congresspersons, the answer is an alarming, “Yes!”
Republican control of Congress is little more than slim at the moment, and a slight Democratic push in a few contested areas could easily sway both houses toward a Democratic majority. The Democrats only need six seats in the Senate, and fifteen in the House to gain a majority in 2006. All of the House seats and at least 33 Senate seats will be up for grabs in the November, 2006 midterm elections.
The following is an analysis of political events in the near-future, based on the Republican best choice series beginning today, September 9, 2005. Retention of Republican control of Congress is given primary importance, and the presidential race in 2008 is given secondary importance.
Background: The Republican Congress will not find it advantageous to protect a lame duck president that will cost them the Congress. Bush’s popularity has not only been in steady decline for the last eight months, but has become a trend of dissatisfaction with the president that has no foreseeable potential for reversal. Iraq is an intractable situation dragging Bush’s numbers down, and all likely outcomes in the next year are not likely to change that, unless to make it worse.
War fatigue is just starting to set in and the anti-war movement is just gearing up, and neither has yet to register their full damage to Bush’s popularity. The Republican Congress as a whole can only lose through its association and support of the president on Iraq in the midterms.
Bush’s popularity has also been sorely damaged by economic concerns. Despite a slow, steady drop in unemployment figures, Bush has not been able to convince the public to support his economic policies. In fact, his worst numbers come from his domestic and economic performance. Gas prices and, as winter approaches, heating oil prices, as well as the fear of inflation, will continue to erode the president’s approval ratings.
Hurricane Katrina may have been the death knell for Bush’s popularity. He is not likely to recover, regardless of damage-control efforts, from the death of Americans linked to the aftermath and poor federal response to the crisis. An ongoing congressional investigation, coupled with a burgeoning revolt in the media, will provide a steady erosion of confidence in the president.
The old adage, “All politics are local,” is a sorely outdated phrase in the age of mass media. The truth is all politics are simultaneously local and national. With a presidential approval rating at 41% and falling, many Republican seats up for election in 2006 in “purple” areas are at risk. Without going into a district-by-district analysis, it is not controversial to state that those at-risk seats easily number more than what is needed for the Democrats to take the congressional majority. To maintain a Republican majority in Congress, even those congresspersons in “safe” districts will have an intense interest in preserving as many Republican seats as possible.
Currently: Loss of the Senate and House majority with an unpopular lame duck president is a Republican worst-case and a most-likely scenario next November. The president’s popularity, rated at over 90% in late September, 2001, dropped to less than a 51% bare majority in the election of 2004. Within the ten months since that election, Bush’s approval has further eroded to the current 41%.
To keep a Republican majority in Congress, it may be necessary to jettison the president before the 2006 elections. Keeping a beleaguered, lame duck president is certainly not worth the risk, especially when there is a far better option.
If President Bush were removed from office, the taint of his perceived failures would be removed from Republican office-seekers in 2006, thus increasing the chance of retaining the majority. The majority of voters would perceive Republicans as proactive, and a large Republican bounce would follow.
If the Congress were to change hands in 2006, not only would there be the loss of the legislative branch, but there would be a great risk of Democrats moving forward with articles of impeachment anyway. Though a conviction in the Senate would not be likely, the potential for damage to the party in 2008 is high. There would be a Democratic control of Congress and the presidency in 2008 as a result. Congress could be retained by removing Bush now, while keeping a Republican president who would then run as an untainted incumbent in 2008, with all advantages of an incumbency, and none of the baggage.
Some may want to draw comparison to Nixon and Ford at this point, but there are important distinctions. Ford lost his 1976 election bid because of his pardoning of Nixon. There would be no pardon in the current example, as there is no crime involved, only political concerns.
Near-future: Members of Congress will approach George W. Bush in the next few months, preparing him for his resignation next spring. If the president should resist such pressures, the Republican Congress will secretly provide a united front, threatening the president with impeachment and conviction. At that point, it will only be a matter of timing. Bush will wait until spring, when the midterm campaigns are just gearing up, then he will step down. Before that, however, Dick Cheney will resign as vice-president, citing health problems. The next in line for the presidency is Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert. Hastert will decline the ascension, leaving President Pro-Tempore of the Senate, Bill Frist, who will step up and fill the role of president.
Such a scenario is also the best choice for the right-wing of the Republican Party. Recent polls have shown the most likely Republican candidates to be moderates, with John McCain and Rudy Giuliani leading the way by a long shot. Frist is running at least 30% below those two. Installing Frist would guarantee a right-wing presidential nomination in 2008, and give Republicans the incumbency advantage for president, as well as maximize chances for retaining the congressional majority through 2010.
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