Brand New ARG Poll Kerry 35 Dean 25 Edwards 15 Clark 13 Lieberman 6

[ringmastery]

This sounds about right. I think the results tomorrow will be very close to this. Kerry winning by about 10. Edwards coming in a distant third a few points ahead of Clark.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

[molly]

1. Good news - thankyou!

[jmaier]

2. You have completely discounted

the 'joementum' phenom that has been widely reported.

[IndianaGreen]

7. The Joe-mentum cannot be easily dismissed

There is no contest on the GOP side, so a lot of independents that would have normally voted on the Republican primary will vote for Joe in the Democratic.

Joe-mentum is real--be prepared!

[blm]

9. I'll bet they vote for Dean. Bush doesn't want to face Kerry the war hero

and Kerry the BCCI investigator and Kerry the IranContra investigator.

[bicentennial_baby]

3. ..........

Fuck it, I'm logging off and going to bed...Too depressing for words.

[jenk]

4. well, let's see what happens

but it's looking pretty good! I think Edwards will finish a lot closer to Dean

[SadEagle]

5. See also their "best guess"

Kerry   35
Dean    29
Edwards 16
Clark   13
Joe L.  6

Remember, this is a 3-day tracker, so effects of shifts are delayed by the averaging of older days.

[creativelcro]

6. Yup, sounds about right. I have the final results here in my pocket...

[arcos]

8. Wow... Kerry was leading by 18% yesterday and 22% on Saturday!

and only 10% today...

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[WI_DEM]

12. The Dean momentum is finally catching up with ARG

read their analysis it is better than these numbers suggest.

[ozone_man]

18. Dean has the momentum.

The come back kid. If Dean gets within single digits of Kerry, then it is a victory, after what the media and dirty tricksters did to him in Iowa.

[Zynx]

26. What if Dean upsets Kerry?

I don't think it will be quite that extreme, but it is a thought.

[GR]

10. All, I'll Say Is ARG Guy Bennett Hates Dean And Loves Kerry...

you'll have to decide if that could color his results...

I'm a Zogby man right now...He says it's within 3...That sounds about right to me...

Actually, no one knows...but Dean is coming back...of that I'm sure...

[WI_DEM]

11. well, maybe I'm interpeting the poll differently

but ARG writes: "most significant result is that support for Kerry, Clark, and Edwards dropped along with increase in support for Howard Dean."

"Women 45 and older are returning to Howard Dean"

"Most undecideds are leaning back to Dean"

"Dean had a four-point gain on January 25th and a five point gain on January 26."

Here is a show of the Dean momentum:
Jan 21-23 15% for Dean
Jan 22-24 16% for Dean
Jan 23-24 20% for Dean
Jan 24-26 25% for Dean

It can still break anyway--we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. It could come down to who gets the vote out.

[tryanhas]

13. Edwards is perfectly positioned to overtake Dean for second

With the 25 to 30% independent vote and same day registers, this thing is up for grabs.

I only worry about one thing. Republicans really want to face Howard Dean. For over a month, I have worried about same day registers that are faithful Bush supporters, registering as Democrats or Independents JUST TO VOTE FOR DEAN and throw a monkey wrench in this entire process.

As long as that doesn't happen, I can't see the Independent vote going to Kerry or Dean because they are too well-known. I think it will particularly go to Edwards and he is going to finish second.

I hope these Republicans don't intentionally try to screw this up. I think that Guliani and Pataki and the GOP are doing more than just promoting Bush in NH.

[WI_DEM]

14. and Dean is perfectly positioned to overtake Kerry for first

Even ARG which has been among the last polling institutes to catch wind of the Dean momentum is saying that Dean "most undecideds are breaking back to Dean."

[markus]

15. The NH Dems should take out a big ad later this week

"Welcome New and Returning Democrats" and list all of the same day registrations.

Might surpise some people who find their name in the paper, and ferret out some weasals.

[Ivote]

19. Dont think

thats legal. If it was that would be great.

[spooky3]

31. I like it!

[nolabels]

16. I am ABB, but this could get fun to watch

I am wondering why Kerry isn't doing better. Dean has messed up several times, but if he comes in within a few points of Kerry and Edwards wins S.C with Clark somewhere in the mix, it might turn out to be a dogfight all the way to the end!

[Terwilliger]

17. ACK! What will Clark supporters do if he comes in fourth??

:shrug:

[Victor Wong]

20. Hopefully go to Edwards. <nm>

[Ivote]

21. Support him

all the way.

[jmaier]

22. We'll get by.

Thanks for your concern.

[Zynx]

24. You'll be fine.

You are in a good position on 2/3. Take this from a week long suffering Dean supporter.

[Ivote]

29. Sorry

I cant vote for anyone who voted for the war. So Edwards is out for me. In fact all 3 Senators for that matter.
There are over 512 DEAD and Thousands of INJURED AMERICAN SOLDIERS because of a lie. As far as the Senators are concerned they were complicit by not holding there ground.

[bicentennial_baby]

23. Keep on truckin

as was the plan all along.

[HereSince1628]

27. Hope for better results in February

I am pretty sure of that, but my MOE is huge

[gulliver]

25. I like that Lieberman number

I think there are going to be two tiers: Kerry/Dean and Clark/Edwards. We will have gone, ironically, from having one wrong front runner to having two.

I can't wait until Feb. 3.

[WI_DEM]

28. today's polling must have put Dean within three points of Kerry

I've played around with the numbers and Kerry was 18-points ahead in three day tracking on Fri, 21-points on Sat, by my estimation to have it come down to ten points over three days--Dean must have been within three points of Kerry today (Monday) probably 32% to 29% and with undecideds still at 6% Dean can still close the gap and win this thing.

[HereSince1628]

32. We'll see tomorrow

I think that's the last poll I want to ponder for the night.

[WiseMen]

30. Why such a big gap with Zogby. Dean surge still evident here though