If Dean wins IA/NH, what scenario leads to the nom for someone else?

[beyurslf]

This is not flame bait but a serious question. If Dean wins IA (a hard battle that may not happen) and wins NH (which looks more and more likely), what needs to happen for someone else to win the nomination?

Looking at current polls in Feb 3rd states, Dean is in a great position in all of them (1st or 2nd in the polls I saw). Any ideas for the strategies of other campaigns to stop Dean from walking through the primaries?

[Padraig18]

1. A giant meteor striking the Dean campaign headquarters?

His campaign plane crashing? Finding him in bed with Leo DiCaprio? Him eating a kitten on live TV? I dunno, frankly, all joking aside... :shrug:

[jmaier]

2. I'd be surprised

if some of the Feb 3rd polls hold up at this point. Coming off of strong IA/NH Dean wins the only candidates I see with a possible road left are Lieberman and Clark. Clark especially seems to be in fair shape in at least SC,AZ,OK (1st/2nd) and Lieberman by poll numbers still seems in play in those locales.

What happens if Dean loses either IA or NH?

[beyurslf]

3. If he loses IA to Gephardt

as long as it is clsoe I think he is ok. All indications are that it will be very close. Losing a close race there I think is ok as long he is a strong second. If he takes first, I think that kilsl Gephardt.

If Dean loses NH that could spell trouble big time. He is over 40% in the polls and leading by 20 some points. I would say to lose there he has to have some things going terribly wrong in his campaign, which would of course affect other states.

it just seems no matter what state you talk about, Dean is the top 1 or 2 spots. If he takes 1st or 2nd in every state, how does another candidate win... unless they are also taking 1st or 2nd in those states?

So far the only one who even seems close to this is Clark (sans IA). I don't get the stratgey of the other candidates. You can't win one state or take second in a few and get nominated.

[ibegurpard]

5. I pray that doesn't happen

Gephardt is my next to last choice...slightly above Lieberman.

[MaineDem]

4. How many delegates do NH and Iowa have?

I seriously don't know but I'm sure it's not very many.

The winner(s) of those states will have momentum, granted, but they won't have a large delegate count. Until all the states have voted and selected delegates, anyone can win. All it will take is fair coverage of all candidates.

[edzontar]

6. He'll be very hard to "Stop"--which wold be fine by me...

nt

[TexasSissy]

7. Clinton had less than 5% in Dec '91 & lost both IA and NH.

He became the nominee and was elected President. Does that answer your question?

[killbotfactory]

8. If he wins by big margins in both states...

It will be very very hard to beat him. He'd get a big media bounce and this is a compressed primary. Maybe if Kerry or Gephardt dropped out after being defeated, Clark or Edwards could pick up some of their support for the feb 3rd states, but Dean seems to be doing very well in the feb 3rd states also.

If Clark (or someone else) gets 2nd by a close margin to Dean, the story will be about their comeback, or a "Dean backlash" or however the media wants to spin it. They could then use that to help their standing in feb 3rd states.