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I am by no means an expert on state economy and goverment, but I read the paper and watch the news here. As a resident, here's my initial take:
Michigan suffered GREATLY from our last neocon Governor Engler, who looted the state treasury for this governor to clean up, and the state senate and house are currently both Republican Majority. The governor and both senators are Democrat (thank god - Granholm, Levin, and Stabenow). Granholm has been struggling to turn the state economy around, but Bush cutting federal funding has left an even greater strain on the state.
The neocon agenda is out to hurt labor, and Michigan is of course a strong, pro-labor industrial state that has suffered probably the most from job outsourcing. On top of that, GM and Ford were still pushing Cadillacs, Suburbans, and Explorers while the gas prices were rising. Michigan has I think the second worse unemployment rate and once of the worst economy recovery rates, if any. This situation is going to be exploited to help Shrubs good friend, uber-neocon Amway heir Dick DeVos "win" the governors seat in 2006. We fear another Ohio. West Michigan, with 2nd largest city Grand Rapids, is solid "red" with a few pockets of blue in the surrounding smaller cities. DeVos hails from here, the bible belt of Michigan, and the DeVos/VanAndel cult pretty much dominates the political and business scenery in Grand Rapids. The conservative evangelicals are stirred up. Last week a controversial "whites only" group held a Saturday Picnic in a public park to encourage membership.
The point here is Michigan correlates roughly to the political demographics of the country in many ways. We barely won 2004 51/48%, which is what the polls looked like on election night for the country. While "blue" is getting beat up here, the "red" is trying to take over, just like everywhere else.
The good point is that there are alot of moderates here, and sportsmen that like their guns but respect the environment. They feel the effects of the economy and don't benefit much from tax cuts. Public schools are suffering. Bottom line, I think we'll have alot of pissed off moderates and layed off workers that vote Democrat in both 2006 and 2008. Alot of democrats stayed home, I bet they wake up for the next two elections also.
I am an optimist, and I think Michigan will stay blue unless they get their piggies on the voting machines. Our Sec State is a "moderate" republican.
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