Class of 2006 Senators - where can we pick up a few extra seats

[LynneSin]

Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI) – Still Running
Allen, George- (R - VA) – Still Running
Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM) – Still Running
Burns, Conrad- (R - MT)
Byrd, Robert- (D - WV) – Still Running
Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA) – Still Running
Carper, Thomas- (D - DE) – Still Running
Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI)
Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY) – Still Running
Conrad, Kent- (D - ND) – Still Running
Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ) - Will probably be someone else after Corzine wins governor in 2005
Dayton, Mark- (D - MN) - Retiring
DeWine, Mike- (R - OH)
Ensign, John- (R - NV)
Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA) – Still Running
Frist, Bill- (R - TN)
Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX) – Could be someone else if she’s running for Governor
Jeffords, James- (I - VT) - Retiring
Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA) – Still Running
Kohl, Herb- (D - WI) – Still Running
Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ)
Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT) – Still Running
Lott, Trent- (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard- (R - IN)
Nelson, Bill- (D - FL) – Still Running
Nelson, Ben- (D - NE) – Still Running
Santorum, Rick- (R - PA) – Still Running
Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD) - Retiring
Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME) Class I
Stabenow, Debbie- (D - MI) – Still Running
Talent, James- (R - MO)
Thomas, Craig- (R - WY)
*******************************************

Ok, let's not focus on what democrats we can boot out of office but what repukes seats could be vulnerable and possible a democratic pickup AND what dems seats might be weak against republican opponent.

Republicans: I think the one definate seat we can pick up is Rick Santorum. He's doing horrible in Pennsylvania, a state in which it's well known he's not a resident and there has been some controversy over Electronic Voting machines which were decertified because of inaccuracy. So this will be a tough state for the repukes to steal at the voting machine.

Democrats: I'm a little worried about those open seats in Minnesota and Maryland - 2 states I'm fearful about republican takeover. Minnesota was a haven for liberals but recent years saw repukes take over Paul Wellstone's old seat and governor. Maryland's blue is starting to fad with that idiot Erhlich as governor. I'm thinking Erhlich is a sitting duck for us to pickoff for governor, but I'm concerned his Lt. Governor Michael Steele might leave his post and run for Paul Sarbannes open senate seat. And if you don't know who Michael Steele is, he's a very conservative African American and from when I saw him on Bill Maher - a Pompous asshole. But Steele could also appeal to the urban areas around Baltimore & DC

What thoughts do you folks have?

[trotsky]

1. Don't worry about Minnesota.

Normie Coleman won only because the Repukes whipped up anti-Democratic sentiment accusing Dems of exploiting the Wellstone memorial.

And Pawlenty won the governor's race only because a former Democratic Representative ran as an Independent. With 2 Democrats splitting the vote, Timmy got in with a plurality. And people are plenty pissed with Pawlenty and his stupid "no new taxes" pledge.

Plus, the 'puke that's going to run for the seat is a real numbnut. He barely carried his own ultra-conservative congressional district this last election. No way can he win a statewide race.

[LynneSin]

2. Hell, I worry about every state except my own

Carper is pretty much a shoo-in for Delaware unless for some bizarro-like reason Rep Mike Castle decides to challenge him. But that's highly unlikely since Castle and Carper are actually pretty good friends

[Atman]

3. The Texas courts

Overturning the illegal jerrymandering of Texas districts by the criminal DeLay would be a good start.

[napi21]

9. Do you think it's possible that TX courts will overturn?

I lived in Tx. and I sure don't feel very comfortable depending on the courts to do the right thing!

[Catchawave]

4. Gov Mark Warner vs Sen George Allen in Virginia

Good shot here if Warner runs. Both have Presidential aspirations in '08, so neither can afford to lose. It will definitely be a national highlight :)

[Darkhawk32]

20. Has Warner announced that he WILL run? n/t

[phylla]

28. Warner has strongly hinted that he does not want to be a legislator

He is most comfortable as an executive. President Warner would be much more up his alley.

However, I do believe that Mark Warner is the only person who could whoop that noxious Allen.
What a sweet, sweet, moment that would be!

Other than that, Mark can run for Governor of Va. again in 2009. If he is not President, I expect that he will be a resident of our Governor's Mansion again. Yay to that!

[Catchawave]

30. He probably doesn't need to be a Senator....

...losing to Allen might hurt a serious prez bid though. He can devote himself full time to running for president after his gov term ends in 2006.

I wish we did have stronger dems to go after Allen!

[spooky3]

47. I think it would benefit him to spend at least one term in the Senate

and it certainly would benefit us Virginians!

[Catchawave]

49. Definitely !

I'd like to see Warner run against Allen because I think he can beat him. Who else is there? Nobody's popping into my head right now, and the repugs already have their SmearPac attacking our Dem Kaine for Gov with nasty commercials.

[Norquist Nemesis]

5. Isn't Frist gone in 2006?

<too lazy to look it up>

[ncrainbowgrrl]

6. Yes, if I remember correctly.

My cats are marking the date on the calendar. :-)

[Clark2008]

44. Thank God, YES!

And, I'll get flogged for this, but it will be Harold Ford Jr. vs. either Republicans Ed Bryant or Bob Corker.

[ThorsHammer]

7. Santorum is toast; Frist's seat should be a strong possibility too (nt)

[Darkhawk32]

21. Correct. Casey should win that race. n/t

[DemBeans]

8. Missouri might be a pickup

Talent is a do-nothing cipher, and McCaskill still has a statewide organization in place from her run for governor last year. There's also a big backlash against Blunt, the idiot boy-governor, so look for a good run at this seat. I definitely think it's one of the most vulnerable.

[Darkhawk32]

14. Correct. Matt Blunt's approval is in the toilet. Talent's can't be .....

much better, if at all. McCaskill would be the most recognizable name to run against Talent, but I'm not sure that she's the best candidate.

The only other name that's been bantered about is Chuck Graham, State Senator from my hometown of Columbia. He could make an impact.

[napi21]

10. Well, from what I've read so far here, I don't see a possible 7 seats!

That's what we would need to gain control without having a tie and have to contend with Cheney and his vote!

[LynneSin]

11. As long as we have a net gain

then I'm a happy camper - every seat counts!

[quaoar]

12. Conrad Burns in Montana

is very vulnerable.

And we also have a shot at some other seats if Republican incumbents retire. Like Mississippi if Lott retires and Wyoming if Thomas retires.

[leyton]

34. Is he really?

I'm not disputing it, I'm just curious as to what makes him vulnerable. I know Schweitzer came close in 2000, but I'm of the impression that 2000 was overall a good year for us, and that Schweitzer is an exceptionally strong candidate anyway.

[nickshepDEM]

40. Yes, Burns is vulnerable, but with the realease of some new poll's...

I have my doubts. He's dominating all potential Democrat challengers and his approval ratings are in the mid 50's. This is very disappointing because no more then 2 months ago the DSCC released a poll that had his re-elect number at 36%.

New Poll:

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/05/29/build/state/35-incumbents-lead.inc

[chicagiana]

13. Oprah for Senate ...

Oprah for Senate in 06 in her residential state of INDIANA!!!!!

[Darkhawk32]

25. If she ran, she'd be a shoe-in. LOL ...

Pontiac G6's for everyone!!!

[spooky3]

48. wow, that would be great. I do believe she would win.

[chicagiana]

15. Al Gore II ...

Could we perhaps see Al Gore return to the Senate by challenging BILL FRIST ????

If Al Gore has the spirit I've seen recently from him, I think he could make a good run at things. This could be the way to EVENTUALLY return to the political arena!!!!

[Darkhawk32]

23. That would be great if he did. C'mon Al, our country needs you!! n/t

[chicagiana]

16. Ohio - JERRY SPRINGER !!!!

Good ole Jerry Springer is STILL popular and he's been egging to get "back into the game" for quite some time.

[Darkhawk32]

22. Any more about Martin Sheen possibly running in Ohio? n/t

[quaoar]

17. Since we're throwing out celebrity candidates

How about Charles Barkley in 2008 running against Jeff Sessions?

Barkley wants to run for governor but he can't because the state constitution requires a seven-year residency.

[Darkhawk32]

18. Conrad Burns of Montana could be vulnerable.

He's going to be challenged by State Auditor John Morrison. Burns' approval ratings have been falling very fast while Montana is getting bluer and bluer, so to speak. It should be very interesting.

[Darkhawk32]

19. BEST OF ALL!! They told the touchscreens to take a f'in hike!!! n/t

[mainegreen]

24. Tough to beat Olympia Snowe...

She may be republican, but she's mainstream, pro-choice and very pro-maine. Heck, I voted for her (but she's the only republican, I swear!)

[Darkhawk32]

26. Snowe, I'm sure, gets pressured into a lot of her votes...

She should just switch sides and be done with it.

[safi0]

27. I'd say our top 3 chances

to pick up a seat are RI, Pennsylvania and Montana. If we had 47 or 48 seats plus Bernie Sanders I'd be happy because we'd further Bush's lame duck status and 2008 looks like a very good opportunity to take back some seats. Only 11 Democratic incumbents and only 2 who really faced difficult challenges in 2002.

[RUMPLEMINTZ]

29. We've got to remember to work hard

to retain some seats too. With Mfume going down in flames who else do we have in Maryland? We've got to back both Nelsons, Ben from Nebraska, and Bill from Florida. I'm worried about Minnesota too, it's never good when one of our senators decides not to seek another term. We've got to put just as much energy in keeping our seats as to gaining seats.

[me b zola]

33. Mfume went down in flames??

What did I miss???

[nickshepDEM]

38. Not yet...

He's getting slamed in the papers for all his illegitimate children and his favortism at the NAACP.

[me b zola]

41. That's their stratagy?

:wtf: Please tell me that it is not succeeding! If those creatures want to talk about children born out of wedlock they should be reminded about Strom Thurmon!!!!

[nickshepDEM]

39. Cardin, Cardin, Cardin...

He's the strongest general election candidate and he fits this state perfectly.

[dolstein]

43. Ben Cardin's a great guy

He won't win any charisma contests (but then again, neither would Paul Sarbanes). But he's been in public service for decades. I think he was the youngest speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates in Maryland history. I'm sure that he dreamed of being governor one day. That never happened, and he's been toiling away in Congress for nearly twenty years. He's certainly paid his dues, he's a loyal Democrat, and I'm sure he'd win.

I'm very familiar with Kweisi Mfume. I think he's charismatic and articulate. I just wish he hadn't fathered so many children out of wedlock. And there have been some questions raised about his tenure as head of the NAACP and whether he showed favoritism to an employee he was romantically involved with. I imagine a race between Mfume and Michael Steele would probably be hotly contested and downright ugly. But if the Republicans were smart enough to nominate someone like Connie Morella, I think she'd win handily.

[nickshepDEM]

46. Your right on just about all counts.

Cardin would be close to a shoo-in if he receives the nomination. His resume cannot be touched by any candidate, Democrat or Republican. Cardin's style and political record match this state perfectly.

Mfume is a liability. To be perfectly honest, I just cannot picture swing voters in critical counties like Howard and Baltimore voting for Mfume. (This is where our elections are decided, too.)

Morella would be tough. The only candidate I see beating her is Van Hollen. After all, he knocked her off in her own CD.

[Catchawave]

31. Sabato's Crystal Ball ( US Senate 2006)

Good site:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/senate/?state=VA

Here's the Virginia sample (all Senate races available):

Virginia
Outlook: Leans Republican


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Democratic Governor Mark Warner challenges one-term Republican Senator George Allen, Allen will have a very tough road to reelection. Warner is a popular Governor and he can self-finance. Should Warner not run, which is probable, Allen (and Warner) can devote their time and money to the 2008 race for President.

Yet it will be interesting to see if the Democrats can come up with a credible nominee against Allen--one that will keep him tied down to Virginia and spending at least a few million dollars of his war chest. There are some very interesting names circulating on the Democratic side, and Mark Warner, as the state's party leader, is doing his duty by lining up a strong surprise candidate should he himself not run. The race is a pure toss-up if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, it leans Republican.

Candidates

Mark Warner - Democrat - governor, former busniessman


George Allen (I) - Republican - attorney, former governor, U.S. Congressman and member of VA General Assembly

[CityDem]

32. Repubs will pick seats

As long as the repubs control the voting machines (especially in red states) they will continue to pick up seats in the Senate.

[Pepperbelly]

35. Also pickups in Vermont, Nevada, Tennessee, but IS RI in play? nt

[nickshepDEM]

37. We dont have a chance in NV... eom

[nickshepDEM]

36. Sadly...

Only 3 races are realistically within our grasp, and only one of those seems like a definite. MT, PA, and RI. Which really sucks because we will be defending seats in MN, FL, NJ and NE. Other possible too close to call races include WA and ND.

[election_2004]

42. Santorum, Burns, and Talent

These three should be targeted.

Bob Casey against Santorum
John Morrison or Mike McGrath against Burns
Claire McCaskill or Chuck Graham against Talent

[genius]

45. Let's make some replacements

Let's replace Akaka with Abercrombie.

Let's replace Cantwell with McDermott.

Let's replace DeWine with Kucinich.

Let's see if we can replace Hillary with Owens.

Let's replace Corzine with Payne.

Let's replace DIFI with Mike Farrell, Martin Sheen or Waters, Woolsey or Lee.

Let's replace Hutchinson with one of the better voting Texas representatives, like Jackson-Lee.

Sanders is an obvious choice to replace Jeffords.

Let's replace Kyl with Grijalva.