My take on the nuclear compromise.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

I can't say I'm thrilled. But then again, I can't say I'm pissed either. It seems like the RINOs and DINOs sold out their leadership on this one and the real winners are the "centrists", whoever that may be, for proving that they CAN still win in this incredibly divided political atmosphere.

However, looking at whether or not "we" won requires a look at some of the other possible outcomes.

Scenario 1: Nuclear option passes, all justices confirmed. The only real "victory" in this scenario is if it created such a vast riptide of public backlash that it forces a 1994 reversal for 2006, certainly not a guarantee, especially this early in the election cycle when Americans have such short memories. Before anyone harps, "BUT FRIST DIDN'T HAVE THE VOTES!!!", remember that they didn't have the Medicaid votes either. That bill still wound up passing. I'm not saying one way or another whether or not the nuclear option would've passed, but that's because NO ONE can say for certain either way. Meanwhile, ALL of these atrocious nominees go through AND we have no recourse for Supreme Court nominees. Not good times at all.

Scenario 2: Nuclear option fails, filibusters on all appointments hold. This, obviously, is the clear cut victory for us, but there was no good way of ensuring this. Yeah, we (we being the "centrists", not Reid) blinked. No other way to say it. And yes, this scenario COULD have happened, but there are absolutely no guarantees, and I sure as hell don't trust either RINOs or DINOs to hold their ground under pressure.

Scenario 3: Frist backs off nuclear option, filibusters hold. Somewhat unlikely scenario, as Frist would have to sacrifice his Presidential aspirations to do it. Of course, this would probably have the consequence of killing any 2006 momentum we've been building to this point, as the good ol' "obstructionist" label rears its ugly head again. The 'thugs come out looking the ones who wanted compromise, not us, and the label would stick. Pretty much cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Scenario 4: Frist backs off nuclear option, Dem centrists fold under pressure and most nominees go through anyway. Don't think for a minute this wouldn't happen. This would be a complete loss for us, no two ways about it, no possibility of redemption.

Scenario 5: The compromise that happened. Some of the atrocious nominees will go through. Others, if you believe Lindsay Graham, will not, which will probably change the complexion of this deal in a lot of DUers minds. The absolute bottom two nominees are canned. We still have the filibuster for Supreme Court if/when that becomes an issue.

If I were to rank them in order of preference, I'd say 2, 5, 3, 1, 4, with all three of the middle scenarios being pretty damn close to each other. I think we got the second best scenario we could hope for in all of this. As an added bonus, I think the base of the Republican party is starting splinter in a big way because of this. There are a lot of people really pissed off at Frist and Company this morning - you know, the assholes who think because they won, everything they want should be done immediately and without compromise. Meanwhile, I don't think this has caused any major new rifts within our party. So yeah, I'd call it a mild victory, which is sure as hell better than most of the alternatives. I'm still not thrilled though.

[cyberswede]

1. Nice comparison

Thanks for laying out the possible scenarios. It's helpful to see the possibilities and compare the possible outcomes. Food for thought. :)