Did Frist REALLY have the votes? Or was he truly bluffing???

[Selatius]

There was a possibility that Frist didn't have the votes.

The issue that got to Frist was how many Republicans would peel away and vote against changing senate rules over filibusters. Harry Reid most likely guessed that Frist was bluffing. This is probably why things were being pushed down to this showdown.

The compromise was reached because these moderates didn't want to be caught in a win-or-die situation. If Frist tried to push the red button, there was a chance he would've failed, and the Democrats would've walked away after completely blunting Frist's attack without having to compromise away three ultra-rightwing judges as seen tonight, but these moderates, specifically the Republican ones, would've been caught in the firestorm that would result in the aftermath of such a massive defeat.

However, you can't gamble with nothing. What was being gambled was the ability to filibuster. If Reid miscalculated and not enough Republicans peeled away to stop the change in rules, then he and the Democrats would've lost the filibuster and the consequences that would bring. We would be breaking new ground in US history, and it probably wouldn't be a good thing.

[housewolf]

1. I think he had them....

We needed 6 repubs on our side to get a majority of 51 votes. We know the only chance we had for votes were from the moderate repubs who were part of "the gang of 14." So there were a possible 7 votes there.

This afternoon at and after the press conference, 2 of them, Mike DeWine and Lindsey Graham, said that they would have voted for the nuclear option had it come down to that. That left us with at _most_, 5 votes.

Us: 45 + 5 = 50 ..... we lose.

Them: 55 - 5 = 50 plus Cheney's tie-breaker ... they win


I don't think either Frist or Reid knew how the votes were going to come down, though. I think they were both white-knuckling it.

[Selatius]

4. Ultimately, it's best-guess speculation here.

The confrontation was averted, at least for now, so we really wouldn't know how the votes would fall, but I would venture to guess that it would come very close to your calculation, but the margin of error in this situation is excruciatingly small, and that does count for a lot. If you ask me, it was too close to call.

[housewolf]

7. You're right, I'm speculating....

it's just how it looks to me, from my limited viewpoint. We may never know how some of that "repub gang of 7" planned to vote.

[Selatius]

11. I'll tell you one thing, though

It does bring up an intriguing "what if" scenario if the compromise was never reached. How the votes would have fallen would be one of those things political junkies would be talking about years, perhaps decades, from now.

[PDittie]

15. They HAVE to say that

But believe this: if Frist had the votes, he would've called the question.

Frist said he wasn't party to the agreement. He's the leader in the Senate; why should he then go along with it?

Because the moderates emasculated him, is why.

DeWine and Graham allow Frist to save (an extremely small part of his) face by saying that. And they do not further anger their party's leadership by coming out publicly against the 'nuke'. Keep in mind most of this action is for down the road -- a SC Justice nominee to replace Rehnquist in the summer, even beyond 2006 when Frist is no longer leader.

My feeling is that Reid had all seven of them, and if it had come to that, one of wither DeWine or Graham would've peeled off to make it 51-49 against.

If even one of the seven Republicans was inclined to vote their party and not their conscience, then why were doing there negotiating a compromise?

[snowbear]

2. On our nightly news tonight....

(in Anchorage) they claimed that U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski's office said that she would have stood with the 7 Republicans (making it 8).. but that she was in the air ---flying from Anchorage back to DC and couldn't get there in time. :eyes:

Hard to know whether her office was just bluffing or not, but that's what they were claiming anyhow :shrug:

[housewolf]

5. "Standing with the gang of 7" doesn't say how she would have voted

The repub gang of 7 didn't want the nuclear option that that doesn't mean they were all prepared to vote against it. Two of them, in fact, said tonight that they _WOULD_ have voted for it, had it come down for a vote.

All of which is to say - there's no way of determinig Lisa Murkowski's vote from that statment.

[snowbear]

10. Yup... you're right...

When she was in Alaska.. (before her daddy appointed her to his seat in the U.S. Senate) :eyes: she was VERY moderate.. She's pro-choice and has never been considered a conservative.

No one here can quite figure her out now.. She seems to lean with Bush in everything only because she's still so green.

Yeah.. you're right about the actual vote.. Who knows? :shrug:

[EndElectoral]

16. Exactly,..and now she'll never have to go on record about it

[expatriot]

3. He gives a hint in his statement....

I got this from Freeperville where someone had posted his comments on the Senate floor RE: the compromise

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1409163/posts?page=118


"Whereas a couple of hours ago, maybe none would get up or down votes."

Maybe I am reading to much into it, but I don't think he had the vote s and perhaps even went as far to give McCain and other moderates the greenlight to find compromise.

[autorank]

6. These guys always like to compromise. They're a bunch of clowns.

[enid602]

8. option

Better a compromise than a nuclear option which might eventually be expanded to include even non-court appointment issues. I think a coup has been averted. The thugs had a limited window of opportunity to gain this sort of advantage before the populace turns on them even more.

[autorank]

13. enid602, You're right. I was just mouthing off. Roe is preserved and

it seems like the details will actually prevent the total wack jobs we've been getting. We'll see but I'm glad it looks like a win for us.

WELCOME TO DU!!!

[tritsofme]

9. He still has the votes

Next time we filibuster DeWine and Graham/Warner will say circumstances weren't extraordinary and that the Democrats reneged on their side of the deal. Then they'll go nuclear with Frist, count on it.

[Selatius]

12. This is a very valid fear

I think it's a very real possibility this compromise may have only delayed a confrontation until whenever Frist wants to play chicken with Reid again. If the confrontation is to come, it could come on something else, such as the Supreme Court itself, which would be a very bad situation.

[tritsofme]

14. I think we walked right into a trap

They know that public opinion is against them right now, but if they can play on people's misconceptions about the compromise they can be in a better situation to break it when we rightly filibuster extremist judges.

Some of those "Republican Moderates" whose praises are being sung all over DU right now will get on TV talk about how hard they tried to compromise and save comity in the Senate but those mean old Democrats still filibustered King George's nominees.

This will leave the GOP in a better position to go nuclear than they would have been tomorrow.

We were playing checkers, they're playing chess.

Our leadership should have seen right through this.

[mumon]

17. Actually, Frist got what he wanted.

As I noted here, it was never about the filibuster of judicial nominees. It was about fundraising.

Think about it.