McCain and Frist both in big trouble for 2008

[alcibiades_mystery]

So, many people see McCain as the big winner of today's compromise and Frist as the big loser. But in fact they have both lost, and for very specific reasons having to do with the 30 year strategy of the Republican Party. We of course all know McCain to be "the moderate," while Frist has been pushing his "conservative" credentials. This cliched image is to some extent true, but it is better mapped along the fault lines in the Republican coalition. Neither can be all things to all people: Frist, post-Dobson extravaganza looks like a kook to most moderates, but may retain the support of the Fundy base and their massive fund-raising and activism networks; McCain, on the other hand, has true cross-aisle appeal, but has truly alienated the most rabid activists of the Party. Needless to say, either one would have to tack to the other side after the primaries, but the upshot for us is that the 2008 Republican primaries appear to be shaping up as a vicious bloodfeud that goes to the heart of the cobbled together (or articulated, as Birmingham School scholars might say) identity that Republicans have been working with since the Richard Viguerie mass-mailings of the early 1970's. The 2008 Republican campaign, in other words, looks ready to cleave the hell out of that (really quite delicate) identity. Pass the popcorn.

[aldian159]

1. Agreed wholeheartidly

See my thread on this matter, although I use a lot more brevity than you do, you explain it far better.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1804369

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. An interesting analysis.

I think the facade of Republican unity really is starting to crumble. Their perfect candidate would be the bastard offspring of Elmer Gantry and Gordon Gekko, but that's an impossible union. The capitalist/corporatist wing cares mostly about preserving the wealth of the upper class and minimizing taxes; they style themselves as fiscal conservatives and tend to be about as "moral" as a pack of hyenas. The fundy "Christian" wing cares mostly about legislation that ensures that homosexuals can't get married, women can't get abortions, and the evil secular humanists can't persecute Christians. These are extremely strange bedfellows. The fundy wing is far less likely to compromise on anything because they get their marching orders from God, but the capitalists are more likely to compromise and form alliances. McCain is a capitalist. So is Frist, actually, but he's gotten into bed with the fundies and now they expect him to march to their tune. McCain has a better chance of coming out ahead because he's not as constrained by rigid ideology. But the best part is that without the support of the fundies, it will be difficult for any Republican to get anywhere in major elections. And they are a very tough crowd to please.

:rofl:

[carpetbagger]

3. Way too early to predict 2008 dynamics.

May 23-24, 2001 CNN poll, democratic respondents for 2004 nomination...

Al Gore 44%
Hillary Clinton 21
Joe Lieberman 6
John Kerry 5
John Edwards 4
Joe Biden 3
Al Sharpton 3
Evan Bayh 2

Here's the oldest poll I can find w/o Clinton or Gore...Zogby, July 2002...

Joe Lieberman 15
Bill Bradley 11
Dick Gephardt 11
Tom Daschle 9
Al Sharpton 6
John Kerry 6
Joe Biden 4
John Edwards 3
Howard Dean 2
Gray Davis 1

[saltpoint]

4. I just love the idea of these 2 folks beating the shit out of each other.

A fractured, embittered GOP sounds like just the ticket.

Let's definitely run against a divided opposition, preferably one divided along hyper-fundy lines.

[Fleshdancer]

5. Now here's the REAL question:

what can we do to help deepen the wedge between these two groups? Making Frist out to be a political joke might help. He's trying very hard to get the Evangelical support for 2008 and if his ego is bruised, he might go into attack mode on this deal and the moderate Republicans behind it.

[Blue Topaz]

6. I like the way you think

and I'd love to see the Repugs beat each other senseless for the 2008 nomination.