What is the outlook for the Senate for 06?

[mahina]

This very disturbing picture scribbled on another board looks like we are more vulnerable than I thought. Anyone have a clear idea where we stand, who needs support, what we can do now? I would have thought we would have enough to win back the Senate in 06.
The poster is off on some obvious details - some fella in Vt. named "Barry" Sanders must be curious what gives, and Linda Lingle here is not going to run for Senate in 06.

From the dark side: "Everything conservatives need to do can be done in two brief years, if the Senate is not allowed to obstruct things. The Senate not only prevents judicial appointments, but it can block any legislation with its sixty vote cloture rule on substantive legislation (something Republicans should change as soon as possible too.) It is for this reason that I have written a number of articles on Senate prospects. The future looks bright, and maybe very bright, for several reasons."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1401908/posts

Anyone?

[Atman]

1. Widely scattered Diebold

On further reflection...you took a post from Freeperville seriously?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. My thoughts

1) No f'ing way Conrad loses ND. He's a 4 term Senator who won with 61% and no one's ever said anything bad about him.

2) Minnesota is going to come down to candidates, but we're likely to keep that seat. Coleman was a fluke.

3) Nebraska will probably be tight, no question about that one. Who knows if Tommy Franks would actually be a decent campaigner. First time military candidates don't often fare well (as much as I love Gen. Clark, he was definitely rough around the edges).

4) The freeper is on glue if he thinks Cantwell, Stabenow, Sanders, Carper, Bingaman, or ANY Democrat from NJ would lose.

4) Romney is NOT popular - he's damn near close to getting Gray Davis treatment. Kennedy's not retiring either.

5) Chafee is going down. Period. Santorum looks like he's following suit, having been down to Casey in some polls by double digits.

6) Like hell our Senators can't vote against Estrada. We already did, and we will continue to. We held a filibuster solidly against him, so I'm not sure why he really believes a vote would be much different.

7) Allen of Virginia will face a strong test from Governor Warner, the Tennessee battle for Frist's spot might not be a lock, and Talent of Missouri barely won last time.

8) In the 2008 elections, Allard (CO), Coleman (MN), Dole (NC), and Sununu (NH), and possibly Alexander (TN) will all be vulnerable, while the Dems are only going to offer up Landrieu (LA) and Johnson (SD).

It would truly be a perfect storm if they think they're going to be filibuster proof.
-----
****On edit: Talent (R-MO) and Conrad Burns (R-MT) are both polling at 36%. They could possibly replace Burns in the primaries and still win. Talent they might be stuck with, as Missouri is trending Democratic.

[tedoll78]

3. Landrieu looks solid in Louisiana.

I went home for school break last week, and all of the media she was getting (newspapers, local news) was solidly positive. That, and I use an unscientific sample as a barometer.. the swing votes in my family.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

4. Good to hear!

I don't expect her to lose, but to deny she's teetering would be wrong too. She won a very close election last time in a state that seems to be veering right.

[tedoll78]

5. Yup.

Her nickname is "Landslide Mary," since she won her first election by 6000 votes.

The media coverage she was getting was concerning Santorum's ridiculous proposal that people pay certain business entities money for weather forecasts. Not a very popular proposal in hurricane alley..

(BTW.. is that an FMA avatar? Cool! He's such a pipsqueak!) :P

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Naw, the avatar is my namesake

Vash the Stampede!!

[tedoll78]

7. Should've known!

They look the same when that small.. red cloak, big metal appendage on the side, spiky yellow hair..

[Hippo_Tron]

11. Burns and Talent won't be replaced in the primary

The trouble with beating Burns is that you'd be hard pressed to find a good dem in a small state like Montana. Schweitzer is clearly the best politician in the state but he's already Governor.

Missouri is a bigger state and there will be a bigger field of contenders to challenge Talent.

As far as Chafee goes, that will be an interesting one. The GOP seems pretty comfortable with their majority and considering that he is the most liberal Republican Senator, the GOP isn't going to spend shit on his campaign. He does have a famous name (from his father) but he's still a Republican in the state that was only second to Massachusetts and DC in its support for Kerry in 2004. If anything, a serious challenge will keep him voting with the Democrats and at the same time further pissing off the right.

[GreenPartyVoter]

8. Without election reform.. it doesn't look good

[mahina]

10. agreed...we passed a paper trail bill here. Today's Common Cause email:

Dear Common Cause Activist,

Are you passionate about the need for laws requiring voting machines to produce
a voter verified paper ballot?

Here's an opportunity to make a real difference.

As of today, 20 states have passed "paper trail" laws - a tremendous
achievement. (Two of these bills await the governor's signature to become
law.) However, these laws are not equally effective; while some are terrific,
others are weak. Some have a long waiting period before they go into effect.

There is a better way. As you know, Congressman Rush Holt (D-NJ) and Senators
John Ensign (R-NV) and Harry Reid (D-NV) have introduced bills in the House and
the Senate respectively - H.R. 550 and S. 330 - that would make voter
verified paper ballots mandatory across the country. Unfortunately, both bills
are stuck in committee.

So let's get them moving! Come to Washington, DC, on June 9 and 10 to talk
directly with members of Congress. With enough co-signers onboard, we can get
this legislation to the floor for a vote.

Sign up to reserve your spot for our national paper trail lobby days by going
to:

http://www.commoncause.org/RSVPforPaperTrailLobbyDays


Our coalition of organizations includes Electronic Frontier Foundation, Rock
the Vote, Verified Voting, VotersUnite, VoteTrustUSA, and Working Assets. Join
us and our coalition partners for Capitol Hill Lobby Days on June 9 and 10 to
talk to our federal lawmakers in person and advocate for the passage of these
crucial election reform bills:

http://www.commoncause.org/RSVPforPaperTrailLobbyDays


If you have never lobbied before, have no worries. It's fun! Besides, we're
planning a training session on the morning of June 9, where you'll get all the
information you'll need to feel like an old pro. We will also help you find
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night, too, with special guests.

It's even more fun if you come with a friend, so spread the word
(http://www.commoncause.org/PromotePaperTrailLobbyDays).

For more information about what Common Cause is doing to reform our broken
election system, visit our Action For Elections center
(http://www.commoncause.org/Elections). If you have not done so, don't forget
to sign our Save Our Elections petition
(http://www.commoncause.org/SaveOurElections).

We hope you can come to the Capitol Hill Lobby Days on June 9 and 10 - we'd
love to meet you in person. In the meantime, thanks for your passion and
commitment to election reform.

Sincerely,

The Election Reform Team
Barbara Burt
Election Reform Team Leader
http://www.commoncause.org/Elections


Alex, DJ, Ed, Jenny, Lisa, Mary, Mike, Murshed, Rachel, and Susannah


Forward this email: http://www.commoncause.org/PromotePaperTrailLobbyDays


Give to Common Cause: http://www.commoncause.org/SupportElectionReform

[C_eh_N_eh_D_eh]

9. Dissolved.

But maybe I'm being too paranoid.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. This guy is being ridiculously optimistic

I'd bet everything I own on Sanders, Kennedy, and Byrd winning in 2006. Sanders is the most popular politician in Vermont. Kennedy is a living legend in the bluest state in the country. There is not even a fraction of a percent of a chance that Mitt Romney will defeat him. Likewise, West Virginia has been solid for the Democrats on the state level and in its congressional delegation and Byrd owns like half the state. One of Byrd's opponents announced his candidacy under a statue of Byrd.

Lieberman won't bolt to the GOP (as much as some on DU wish he would). The Nelsons are vulnerable but this guy is talking about them like they don't stand a chance. Nelson of Nebraska is a former Governor so he's been elected more than once to a major statewide office. Both of them are incumbent senators in the opposition party and the country usually responds well to the opposition party in midterm elections.

Chafee is in a dark blue state, he's vulnerable. Santorum has made so many idiot blunders and he will be up against an extremely strong candidate. He is certainly vulnerable.

Tenneseee, Montana, Nevada, and Missouri are all POSSIBILITIES for Democratic pickups BUT we don't know yet because we don't know about retirements and who is going to run.

Also, George Allen is strong in VA but if Warner challenges him then it will be a race. VA is trending more blue as of late. I believe that Kerry got a higher percentage of the vote than Clinton got there (Perot factor excluded of course), but that's still pretty good consider that Clinton is from the south and Kerry is not.

[safi0]

14. I think each side has

4-6 races that they think they can win.

For our side we have the most two, one in RI and the big one in Pennsylvania. Then you have Tennessee, I really don't know a whole lot about that race. You have Montana(where there Attorney General seems to be the odds-on favorite to get our nomination) and Missouri where like you guys said the guy has a 38% approval rating. Then you have Virginia, I'll be honest I think Mark Warner is our only chance to win this seat. If Warner doesn't run I think Allen cruises to re-election.

From the Puke perspective unless Byrd and/or Kennedy decide not to seek re-election, which right now there's no reason to believe is happening they'll win there states easily. Even if Kennedy doesn't seek re-election Mary Meehan or one of there 9 Democratic congressman will take that seat. If Byrd retires though that seat could be up in the air. Sanders will win in Vt, and whoever Corizine chooses to be his replacement after he becomes Governor will win re-election in NJ.

But the seats they actually can win are Washington, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, Florida, and maybe Maryland and Wisconsin. With Washington I've seen polls where Dino Rossi beats Maria Cantwell by a few points and while a poll 18 months before the election isn't that big of a deal, but an incumbent losing in a poll this early is never a good thing. Minnesota even before Dayton announced he wasn't seeking re-election he was atop there hitlist and I exopect Mark Kennedy to make a hard claim for that seat. Debbie Stabenow is another person the Pukes hate and wil undoubtedly face a tough re-election campaign. Nebaraska is Nebraska and Nelson will face a tough challenge. Bill Nelson won by a very slim margin in 2000 and has been pretty undistinguishable in his 4+ years so far in the Senate, which doesn't fare well for him. Maryland, if our primary is too bloddy I think Danielle Steele could steal the seat. In my state of Wisconsin if Tommy Thompson runs they have a better than even chance of winning, if he doesn't Kohl gets similar numbers as he did in 2000.

Sidenote I saw some not so great numbers on the RI Senate race. Chaffee has a 10 pt. lead over Sheldon Whitehouse and a 14 pt. lead over Matt Brown, unlike Langevin who lead Chaffee by over 20 pts.

[Hippo_Tron]

15. The pukes failed to defeat Stabenow in 2000, they won't do it this time

I don't understand why we are always "vulnerable" in Michigan. It's a solid blue state with a solid urban base. Not to mention that Bush has pissed off the usually solid Republican Arab American constituency.

Bill nelson won by a very slim margin in 2000, BUT consider this... That was Florida in 2000. Need I say more? Not to say that either of the Nelsons are safe. Neither of them are, these will be two highly contested seats that need to be defended.

As far as Michigan (which I'm convinced is solid for Stabenow but for sake of argument I'll add it), Washington, and Maryland are concerned, I think that you're looking at it from an overly pessimistic point of view. We are the ones that have the inherant advantage in those blue states. The Repukes have about as much shot at picking up those seats as we do of picking up seats in the red states: Missouri, Tennesee, Nevada, and Montana.

Wisconsin is an exception because Kohl isn't really as well liked as Feingold, it is barely a blue state, and Tommy Thompson is a very strong candidate.

Also... two races that haven't even been mentioned yet are Ohio and Mississippi. Ohio's one term senator DeWine can definately be challenged if we get a good candidate to run against him. Also, Mississippi is, believe it or not, a possibility. If Lott retires, Congressman Gene Taylor or former AG Mike Moore are both strong candidates that could win. Granted, either of these two (or both) might be holding out to run for Governor in 2007, but it's too early to tell. Gene Taylor is really a DINO but he's actually pretty good on trade and he's become better on Iraq and almost anything is an improvement over Trent Lott.

[safi0]

28. You have to look at it

From an overly pessimistic point of view, if you don't we get things like 1994. I mentioned Michigan because its well known that the Pukes want to take down Stabenow, and will do whatever it takes. Washington may be a blue state but Maria Cantwell is a one term senator who has been very undistinguishable in her one term in office and a recent poll shows Dino Rossi beating her, which dealing with an incumbent is never a good thing. There's no reason to lose Maryland's seat, but it looks like there putting all there chips behind Daniel Steele and were going to have a pretty competitive primary and if our primary gets too bloody Steele might be able to steal it(no pun intended). Your assessment of my two senators in WI isn't exactly true. Kohl's actually the more popular one, he got 62% in his last election while Feingold got 55%, but Feingold is the much better campaigner. Making this very clear only Tommy Thompson would be able to beat Kohl, and Thompson would've given Feingold the fight for his life had he decided to run.

Personally I don't think we'll take back the Senate, but I'm hoping we can have 47,48 Senators, so when 2008 comes up we'll have a good chnce to take back the Senate. Because looking at 2008, things look good. We only have 10 Senators up for re-election and of those 10, only 2 maybe 3 look to face a real challenge. I'm not too sure what to think about Johnson in SD, he won by a measly 527 votes. I don't know if this was due to him facing a strong candidate in Thune or if this is due to him being in a strong Puke state. Then you have Landrieu who faced a difficult re-election and will probably face another one, and Pryor in Arkansas, if the Gov. decides to run against him he could face a difficult challenge. Other than those 3 the other 7 should cruise to re-election. While they have Allard, Coleman, maybe Collins, Talent, Sununu, Smith, and maybe Alexander in Tennessee who they could all be worried about.

[ISUGRADIA]

13. The freeper doesn't keep up with the news

Romney is not going to run for Kennedy's seat. He's running for president if anything.

It will be hard to make gains in any case as we are at 19D and 15R this cycle I believe.

[Hippo_Tron]

16. When do we get a cycle when there are more Repukes up?

I suppose we'll get one in 2010 becuase of all the gains the repukes made last year, but it ALWAYS seems like Dems have to defend more than the GOP.

[ISUGRADIA]

36. 2008 looks like a much better year potentially 21R up to 12D

[paineinthearse]

17. "Barry" Sanders

Maybe you mean "Larry" Sanders, or ever BERNIE?

[mahina]

22. Ya, I know,

that's why Barry is surprised. I know it's Bernie, I may read dumb stuff sometimes but I do breathe through my nose. Mostly.

[paineinthearse]

18. Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2006

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=296&topic_id=1400&mesg_id=1400

[paineinthearse]

19. Rethug Senators up for re-election in 2006

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=296&topic_id=1419&mesg_id=1419

[warrens]

20. We're taking down Santorum and several others

I'm can't say too much, but read Bill Clinton's comments and you will see what is going on.

I dunno if we can take back the Senate, but we will come close. And then we can flip a moderate or two.

The strategy is to pour money into blue states with red reps. The accepted wisdom is that they are from safe districts. They're not. Just no one ever had the cash to run against them. Here in Illinois, we are going after Hastert and a couple of others. We got one last time with the same tactics. Phil Crane is gone. Henry Hyde ducked out this time, and he has no successor.

[tritsofme]

21. No one is seriously going after Hastert

Hastert will never be taken out as long as he stands for reelection. Hastert as Speaker is good for the IL delegation and is percieved as being good for the state on the whole.

There is a high probability that a Republican will win Hyde's seat because it is a strongly Republican district.

We got lucky with Crane, after 30 years people were tired of him. This leaves Mellisa Bean very vulnerable in a very competitive district.

[warrens]

23. Oh, you have no idea

This is not going to be cute. You sound like a Republican.

[tritsofme]

24. I am a realist

And I prefer not to spend my time in fantasy land.

If you think there's a real possibility Hastert will be knocked off, that Hyde's seat is a sure pickup, and that Mellisa Bean is not vulnerable, then you are not being rational.

I'll thank you not to insult me.

[mahina]

27. Hastert?? is GOOD?? for ANYTHING??

sorry about the caps but oh man. Are you serious?

[orleans]

32. i live about twenty miles east of hastert's home town

and from what i've heard--people like him...

though i can't figure out why???

probably because he is from around there!

(you know, xenophobes and all)

[tritsofme]

35. He is percieved as being good for Illinois congressional delegation

that's why he will never be seriously challenged as long as the GOP is in the majority.

[Lexingtonian]

25. I ain't reading that crap

but I can tell you my analysis. 10 vulnerable R seats, less than 5 vulnerable D seats.

That Freeper is going to prove a learned idiot. The way things are going Republicans are going to split. A year and half from now a lot of moderate Republicans will stay away, the hardline kind won't make up for that in any serious way, and all serious Democrats are going to show up. People are already talking '1994 in reverse'- it's too much of cliche to be literally true, but opposition of the Republican moderates to the hardline political agenda is becoming evident. A lot of Republican officeholders and candidates are going to be unusually weak and out of excuses.

Republican seats clearly being lost-
VT: Jeffords -> Sanders (+1) ; there isn't a contest
RI: Chaffee loses now that he's turned silly and bizarre; I'd guess Langevin runs/wins
ME: Snowe is vulnerable after so many bad votes, and sick; it's a D pickup by Allen
PA: Santorum -> Casey (+1) ; the moderate R's have already left Ricky
PA: Specter is probably too sick to carry on much longer; Rendell probably appoints Hafer

Better than 50/50 when a challenger ties them to the Bush/DeLay/etc agenda/failures-
OH: DeWine - if Sherrod Brown runs, Brown wins
MO: Talent - watch another Carnahan try to boot him...and succeed, or very close to
MT: Burns - is retiring, and there seems to be no sufficiently clean R left to run
AZ: Kyl - what is his excuse for his record?
AZ: McCain - looks ailing; if he resigns/dies, Napolitano appoints e.g. Jim Kolbe
NV: Ensign - the Reid machine does Las Vegas right...and lots of Mormons stay home

Not so vulnerable Democratic seats-
NJ: (Corazine ret.) New Jerseyites are over their 'security mom' moment. Menendez easily.
FL: Nelson has nothing to regret and a scorched earth partisan wasteland Florida tips Democratic via the governor race
AR: Pryor has nothing to regret and gets only a minor challenger
NE: Nelson has nothing to regret and gets only a minor challenger
CA: (Feinstein ret.) Lots of noise and money spent, but any decent Democrat wins (read: not you, Ellen Tauscher) because Arnie has wiped out benefit of the doubt for Pubbies

Vulnerable Democratic seats-
MD: (Sarbanes ret.) Rove has decided there are enough conservative Democrats in the state to try to wedge them. It'll come a year too late to work out for him, but it will be a close result...and Democratic, Cardin or Van Hollen.
HI: Akaka (and/or Inouye) hope to resign as soon as doing so doesn't cost Democrats a Senate majority- but until then, it's reelections for them, and Ed Case is just waiting for the job. But Lingle might put in some Republican appointee if things go badly.

Yep, this is really prediction of an extension/intensification of the Red/Blue map. Sort of the final version, where the tip to Blue Electoral College majority comes into sight for '08. No, I don't think Frist or Lott will be replaced by Democrats, or at best the suspect kind(s).

[mahina]

26. Thanks for that most lucid interpretation.

I agree 100%. Case is next for Senate, hope we can bring Matt Matsunaga out for Representative. I know lingle want the senate seat in the next run but not this time.
Mahalo!

[Stinky The Clown]

29. Maryland could turn out to be a nail biter

Seems old KKKarl is gunna work with our AA Lt. Guv, Michael Steele. Steele, while a certifiable right wing ideologue, comes off as moderate and 'nice guy'.

The Dems have three candidates right now. The best (from a national perspective, imho) would be Kwaesi Mfume, former congressman, former teevee and radio host, former NAACP head, national name recognition, good looking, articulate, smart, photogenic, liberal, compelling life story (former gang member makes *really* good). Down side: brewing sexual harassment scandal fueled by .... ? Old NAACP people? The Repubs? Both together? Also, his ego is bigger than our tiny state. He may not make it through the primaries (and more's the pity).

Ben Cardin. Long time Baltimore City/County congressman. Solid rep locally. Good record. Honest (so far as I know). has an old Baltimore air about him. Probably the one who will take it all.

Chris Van Hollen. Not nearly as much name recognition as either Cardin or Mfume. Comes from the DC suburbs. The other two are Baltimore based. The Dem epicenters are the DC suburbs and the Baltimore burbs/City regions. Don't know what his appeal beyond his home district and neighboring districts might be.

Here's the wild card .... Maryland is 100% no paper Diebold. Add in Rove's involvement in Steele's campaign and we could be looking at a very long six years in Senatorville.

My money's on Cardin, while my support's with Mfume

[Radical Activist]

30. Bernie Sanders is great

He can win the seat and he will be a powerful progressive voice in the Senate. He's an independent, but only because he's too the left of the corporate DLC Democratic leadership.

Don't believe the delusional crap on Free Republic.

[funflower]

31. The President's negatives will hurt the reps in Congress

[GRLMGC]

33. I doubt we'll take back the Senate

but I think we'll pick up a few seats. Then, slowly but surely, we'll take back that motherfucker

[snowbear]

34. First of all mahina..

NEVER listen to the brainless scumbags at FreakRepublic :puke:

You'll do a lot better if you stick around this neck of the woods :grouphug: