Can someone explain jobless claims versus unemployment rate?

[dhinojosa]

It seems that when jobless claims rise (like today) the unemployment rate stays the same.

Yet when jobless claims doesn't move, the unemployment rate goes up?

Is the Labor Department cooking the books?

[MADem]

1. In short, yes

After your benefits run out, you "disappear" from the records. You are a "discouraged worker" or perhaps more appropriately, ex-worker. There are a shitload of people in this category, working under the table, robbing houses, cadging off relatives, doing whatever, to get by.

[dhinojosa]

3. Oh...

so for the unemployment rate they are taking cards from the bottom in order to keep that rate from rising?

[sendero]

9. Don't forget ebay...

... lots of them are closet millionaires on ebay! :)

[ET Awful]

2. Jobless claims, if I'm not mistaken, are newly unemployed

persons/new filers for unemployment benefits. The Unemployment Rate covers all persons currently receiving benefits. Neither includes those who are no longer receiving benefits because their eligibility expired or they have stopped looking for work.

[meegbear]

4. A jobless claims is when a person first reports they are unemployed

The unemployment rate is the total number of people they have listed as unemployed by their state unemployment offices.

This actually works to the goverment's advantage, because they only have the count the people who are getting benefits. So when they saw the unemployment rate went down, you don't know how many of those actually found work and how many ran out of benefits. If they included, the latter, the number would be a lot higher.

[mopinko]

5. i THINK, also

that claims is a count and the rate is a percentage. so, claims can go up in number, but if the number of workers increases at the same rate, the percent stays the same.

[rurallib]

6. a little off the subject but I believe that total employment

in the US has finally caught up to where it was in Jan. 2001. In other words the Bush economy after 4.5 years is finally up to where Clinton was in 2000.

[EC]

7. It's rigged so the numbers always look

about the same...but if you look around the number of unemployed in real terms is way up, in many areas as much as 30% or more have no jobs and are getting by as best they can, hence increase in crime and gang activity...and state plans such as food stamps and shelters...The figures on paper will always look about the same because after 26 weeks when you run out of unemployment, YOU NO LONGER COUNT...and this doesn't even count all the part-time employees that have lost jobs, since they don't qualify for unemployment.(and since most new jobs are either part-time or temporary- there is no unemployment when let go)

This is why Republicans refuse to vote for unemployment extensions, they know we'll see a clearer picture of the state of the Nation...

The way it is rigged the numbers will always stay about the same, unless there is some massive, nationwide layoffs or closings...

[converted_democrat]

8. Plus they have changed the way they get the numbers 3 times since this

administration started. Don't like the numbers? Change the way you get the numbers, that is what this administration does about everything.

[AllegroRondo]

10. Serious explaination

Jobless claims = first time claims for unemployment. This is the number of people who signed up for UE benefits this week that had not filed a claim in the previous year.

Unemployment rate = percentage of working age population that is actively looking for work but cannot find work. It is determined by a phone survey by the DOL. It doesnt matter if you are claiming UE benefits or not, if you are looking for work you count as unemployed for this survey. This percentage does not count people in prison, or people too old/young to work. Note that due to a rule change in 2003, people receiving SS disabilty are now counted as 'employed' for this percentage, when they previously counted as 'not part of the work force'.

So in short, the unemployment rate measures something completely different than jobless claims, and it is not uncommon for them to move in different directions.

[oscar111]

11. Dont get lost in fragmental stats: Job Shortage is the bottom line

JS is the real big picture, but you will never hear of it in MSM. They want you to focus on oft misleading and always confusing fractional stats that give a tiny part of the

Big Picture.

JS is the big picture . It is a LW Point-of-View stat. See my sig below for it, and gov sources on it, and how to calculate it by one subtraction.

Jobless numbers place jobless blame on the jobless {"plenty of jobs out there, you bums just lazy"} : JS stat places blame on those who have failed to create enough jobs. Not enough jobs? Gee, never heard that before, right? How short are we of jobs?

MSM never mentioned that idea.
MSM is always talking of "new jobless claims, seasonally adjusted excluding the discouraged in non-manufacturing domestic weekly pre-quarterly estimated ratio compared to this quarter year-to-date of last fiscal year". And suchlike.

Now see my sig to learn of the 14 million JS Job Shortage, unimpeachable sources for it, and how it is calculated.